Jika kamu mempercayakan 10.000 usd kepada Peter Lynch, maka 13 tahun kemudian uang tersebut menjadi 280.000 usd. Gambaran singkat ini mungkin sudah cukup menggambarkan kehebatan investor satu ini.
Latar Belakang Peter Lynch
Lahir pada tanggal 19 Januari 1944 di Newton, Massachusetts. Ayahnya adalah seorang profesor matematika di Boston College. Sang ayah meninggal ketika Peter Lynch masih berusia muda.
Untuk mendapatkan uang, Peter Lycnh muda bekerja menjadi caddy golf. Saat itu ada seorang member golf bernama George Sullivan, salah seorang pengelola Fidelity Investment. Disinilah titik perjumpaan Lynch muda dengan George Sullivan dan Fidelity Investment.
Ketika George Sullivan dan rekan-rekannya berbicara tentang saham di permainan golf, disinilah Lynch muda mendengarkan berbagai pemikiran pemain besar ini.
Pada tahun 1969, setelah selesai wajib militer Peter Lynch bergabung dengan Fidelity Investment. Dia menjadi seorang analis untuk sektor industri textile dan metal di perusahaan tersebut.
Karirnya berjalan dengan sangat baik, lima tahun kemudian dia berhasil menjadi seorang research director dan puncaknya 31 may 1977 dia mengambil alih Magellan Fund.
Tetapi awal dia menjalankan Magellan Fund ini tidak berjalan mulus, karena periode 1970 bukan periode baik untuk investasi saham. Tiga tahun pertama, banyak investor yang menarik dananya dari Magellan Fund karena kecewa dengan hasil investasinya. Baru di tahun 1982 performa Magellan Fund menjadi luar biasa.
31 May 1990, setelah 13 tahun bekerja sangat keras menjalankan Magellan Fund memutuskan pensiun, dia tetap menjadi vice chairman di Magellan Fund. Tetapi waktunya lebih banyak dihabiskan untuk kegiatan filantropi.
Pemikiran Peter Lynch Dalam Memilih Saham
Berinvestasilah pada sesuatu yang kita mengerti. Salah satu cerita terkenal bagaimana Peter Lynch mendapatkan perusahaan multi bagger setelah mendapatkan informasi dari istrinya.
Istrinya berbelanja pakaian dari sebuah brand baru (Hanes). Istrinya memberikan pujian bagaimana produk brand tersebut memiliki kualitas yang bagus dengan harga yang menarik. Lalu Peter Lynch melakukan riset untuk perusahaan tersebut dan kemudian membelinya. Akhir cerita dia berhasil mendapatkan six baggers (profit 600%).
Kalau begitu artinya, jika kita suka berbelanja produk tersebut artinya ini peluang bagus untuk kita membeli saham perusahaan tersebut, sayangnya tidak semudah itu. Peter Lynch selalu memperingatkan untuk tidak membeli saham suatu perusahaan sebelum kita menyelesaikan beberapa pekerjaan rumah terlebih dahulu. Kita harus mengecek prospek pertumbuhan pendapatan, kondisi keuangan perusahaan, persaingan pasar, rencana ekspansi perusahaan dan hal-hal lainnya.
Kategori Utama Saham Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch membagi saham menjadi beberapa kategori, yaitu:
- Fast Growers : Perusahaan yang laba bersih bisa meningkat lebih dari 20% pertahun dengan mempertahankan ratio hutang yang tetap rendah.
- Stalwarts : Perusahaan yang sudah bisa menghasilkan pendapatan multi-billion dollar dan laba bersih bisa meningkat sekitar 10-19% pertahun.
- Slow Growers: Biasanya perusahaan yang sudah besar dan sudah berusia mature. Dimana perusahaan ini laba bersih cuma mampu meningkat 1 digit pertahun (dibawah 10%).
Kategori Tambahan Saham Peter Lynch
Walaupun dia membagi investasinya kedalam 3 kategori tersebut secara umum, ada 3 kategori tambahan yang dia juga gunakan:
- Cylicals : Perusahaan yang fluktuatif, dimana waktu adalah segalanya. Saham ini akan naik dengan sangat tinggi ketika kita masuk di momentum kenaikannya. Saham ini akan jatuh begitu dalam ketika kita masuk di momentum penurunannya.
- Turnarounds : Perusahaan yang bermasalah biasanya mengalami kerugian secara terus menerus, tetapi mulai menunjukan perbaikan kinerjanya. Untuk perusahaan dengan kategori Turnarounds ini, dibagi lagi menjadi beberapa kategori
- Bail-out-or-else : Perusahaan yang harga saham turun begitu dalam, tetapi kita melihat akan ada pihak (pemerintah) yang akan menyelamatkan perusahaan tersebut (bailout). Contoh saham ini adalah Chrysler di periode tahun 1980an.
- Who-would-have-thunk-it : Perusahaan yang mengejutkan market dimana dia dapat mengurangi kerugian besar menjadi kerugian kecil ataupun malah menjadi profit.
- Little-problem-we-didn’t-anticipate : Perusahaan yang dihukum begitu besar oleh market karena sebuah berita negatif yang dihadapi. Padahal sebenarnya permasalahan yang dihadapi tidaklah signifikan terhadap kinerja perusahaan. Kalau di bahasa saya ini saya sebut dengan market risk dan bukan company risk
- Perfectly-good-company-inside-a-bankrupt-company : Perusahaan bermasalah yang memiliki keuangan yang sebenarnya sehat. Bisa jadi perusahaan ini adalah perusahaan yang dikelola oleh manajemen bermasalah, dikelola dengan cara bermasalah akan tetapi memiliki harta karun didalamnya.
- Restructuring-to-maximize-shareholder-value : Perusahaan yang melakukan divestasi usaha untuk business unit yang tidak baik, sehingga yang tersisa hanya unit bisnis yang baik dan akan menguntungkan pemegang saham.
- Asset Plays : Bahasa mudahnya adalah perusahaan yang salah harga. Perusahaan yang memiliki nilai market dibawah dari aset real yang dimiliki. Peter Lynch memiliki tiga pertanyaan:
- Apa saja aset perusahaan dan berapa nilai aset tersebut sebenarnya?
- Berapa banyak hutang yang harus dibayarkan? Jika aset tersebut sudah digunakan untuk pembayaran hutang, berapa sisa nilai aset tersebut?
- Apakah ada investor lain yang menganggap hal itu menarik dan mengincar aset perusahaan tersebut?
P/E/G Ratio – Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch membuat sebuah ratio yang disebut P/E/G ratio yang dipercaya dapat menemukan saham perusahaan bagus yang dijual dengan harga yang baik (GARP – Growth At a Reasonable Price).
Contoh yang diberikan untuk mengerti tentang P/E/G ratio adalah Walmart. Saat itu Walmart memilii PER 20x, dimana itu bukan sesuatu yang dibilang murah. Tetapi di satu sisi pertumbuhan laba bersih Walmart sekitar 25-30% pertahun. Sehingga walau secara PER perusahaan ini tidak murah, tetapi jika kita mempertimbangkan dengan growth perusahaan tersebut maka hasilnya bisa berbeda.
Saya coba menjelaskan dengan bahasa yang lebih mudah dimengerti. Misalkan kita membeli kedai kopi dengan informasi sebagai berikut:
- Kita membeli kedai kopi dengan harga 1 miliar.
- Perusahaan ini menghasilkan laba bersih 50 juta di tahun lalu.
- PER kedai kopi ini berarti 20X (1 miliar : 50 juta).
- Jika perusahaan ini memiliki growth (kemampuan meningkatkan laba bersih) sebesar 30% pertahun, maka
- Laba bersih tahun ini menjadi 65 juta (50 juta x 1.3)
- Laba bersih Y+1 menjadi 84.5 juta (65 juta x 1.3)
- Laba bersih Y+2 menjadi 109.85 juta (84.5 juta x 1.3)
- Laba bersihh Y+3 menjadi 142.8 juta (109.85 juta x 1.3)
- Laba bersih Y+4 menjadi 185,65 juta (142.8 juta x 1.3)
- Laba bersih Y+5 menjadi 241.34 juta (185.65 juta x 1.3)
- Laba bersih Y+7 menjadi 313.74 juta (241.34 juta x 1.3)
- Setelah 8 tahun maka kita bisa mendapatkan total laba sebesar 1.192 miliar rupiah. Artinya kita akan balik modal plus dari investasi kita hanya dalam waktu 8 tahun dan bukannya 20 tahun seperti hasil dari PER.
Kurang lebih inilah konsep berpikir yang melandasi tentang P/E/G ratio dari Peter Lynch.
Cara Menghitung P/E/G Ratio
Untuk menghitung P/E/G ratio ini, maka dia membagi PER dengan Growth perusahaan. Yang dimaksudkan dengan growth sendiri adalah penjumlahan dari EPS growth (kemampuan perusahaan untuk meningkatkan laba bersih) dengan dividen yield (jika bukan fast grower company). Agar lebih jelas mari saya berikan simulasinya.
- Perusahaan ABC memiliki PER 14X
- Perusahaan ABC memiliki dividen yield 4%
- Perusahaan ABC memiliki EPS growth 12%
- Total Growth adalah 16 (dividen yield + EP growth) NB: tidak perlu dimasukan persentase.
- P/E/G ratio perusahaan tersebut adalah 0.88 yang didapatkan dari 14/16 (PER dibagi dengan total growth)
- Jika P/E/G ratio hasilnya dibawah 1, maka ini akan dianggap menarik.
Cara Memilih Saham ala Peter Lynch
Seperti yang sudah dijelaskan diatas, Lynch memiliki 3 kategori utama dalam pemilihan saham yaitu: fast grower, stalwart dan slow grower.
- EPS growth >=20% –> Fast Grower
- EPS growth >=10% & <20% –> Stalwart
- EPS growth <10% –> Slow Grower
Peter Lynch berinvestasi pada ketiga kategori perusahaan ini. Tetapi dia memiliki kriteria berbeda untuk masing-masing kategori tersebut
Part 1 – Kriteria Umum
P/E/G Ratio Yang Kecil
Untuk perusahaan yang termasuk fast grower, maka perhitungan growth yang digunakan untuk perhitungan P/E/G ratio tidak dijumlahkan dengan dividen yield agar perhitungan menjadi lebih konservatif.
Untuk perusahaan yang termasuk stalwart dan slow grower, maka perhitungan growth yang digunakan untuk perhitungan P/E/G ratio dijumlahkan dengan dividen yield.
Sebagai contoh:
- Perusahaan A memiliki PER 20x, EPS growth 25% dan dividen yield 5%. Maka P/E/G ratio hasilnya adalah 0.8 (20/25)
- Perusahaan B memiliki PER 20x, EPS growth 15% dan dividen yield 5%. maka P/E/G ratio hasilnya adalah 1 (20/(15+5))
Kriteria P/E/G ratio yang diinginkan oleh Peter Lynch adalah:
- P/E/G ratio >0 & <=0.5 –> PASS (Best Case)
- P/E/G ratio >0.5 & <=1 –> PASS
- P/E/G ratio >1 –> FAIL
Pertumbuhan Inventory-to-Sales Ratio yang Kecil atau Negatif
Sebuah indikator yang unik milik investor ini. Dasar pemikirannya adalah, jika saldo inventory nilainya mengalami peningkatan yang jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan peningkatan saldo salesnya maka bisa jadi penjualan perusahaan tersebut tidak sesuai dengan yang diharapkan oleh perusahaan tersebut. Bahasa gampangnya, produk perusahaan tersebut kurang laku.
Angka maksimal yang diperbolehkan adalah selisih 5%. Agar lebih mudah dimengerti, saya berikan simulasi singkat.
- Perusahaan A saldo inventory tahun 2019 1M dan saldo inventory 2020 1.2M artinya ada peningkatan 20%.
- Perusahaan A saldo sales tahun 2019 1.5M dan saldo sales 2020 1.65M artinya ada peningkatan 10%
- Sehingga jika kita bandingkan, kita akan melihat adanya selisih antara peningkatan saldo inventory dengan peningkatan saldo sales sebesar 10%. Ini berarti Changes in Inventory-to-Sales Ratio 10%
- Peter Lynch tidak menyukai perusahaan semacam ini.
Kriteria yang diinginkan:
- Perusahaan sektor keuangan atau jasa –> ratio ini tidak berlaku
- Changes in Inventory-to-Sales-Ratio negatif –> PASS – BEST CASE
- Changes in Inventory-to-Sales-Ratio = 0 –> PASS
- Changes in Inventory-to-Sales-Ratio <=5% –> PASS
- Changes in Inventory-to-Sales-Ratio >5% –> FAIL
Debt to Equity Ratio Yang Aman
Saya rasa tidak perlu menjelaskan tentang ratio ini lebih jauh lagi, ratio ini sudah sering dibahas dan hampir digunakan oleh kebanyakan investor dalam pemilihan sahamnya.
Kriteria yang diinginkan
- DER <=0.3 –> PASS – BEST CASE
- DER >0.3 & <= 0.5 –> PASS – NORMAL
- DER >0.5 & <=0.8 –> PASS – MEDIOCRE
- DER >0.8 dan dia utilities atau finance company –> PASS
- DER >0.8 dan dia bukan utilities atau finance company –> FAIL
Ratio Khusus Untuk Perusahaan di Sektor Finansial
Untuk perusahaan di sektor finansial (bank, insurance, pembiayaan) maka Peter Lynch menambahkan dua ratio tambahan yaitu E/A ratio dan ROA ratio. Abaikan ini jika perusahaan yang lagi dianalisa bukan perusahaan sektor finansial.
Equity to Asset (E/A) Ratio Yang Besar – Financial Sector Only
Sebuah ratio yang jarang kita dengar. Tapi konsepnya jika Equity to Asset perusahaan besar, maka perusahaan ini memiliki aset yang besar dan hutang yang kecil. Dan itu adalah hal yang baik
Kriteria yang diinginkan
- E/A Ratio >=5% –> PASS
- E/A Ratio >=13% –> PASS – BEST CASE
- E/A Ratio <5% –> FAIL
ROA (Return on Asset) Yang Besar – Financial Sector Only
Kriteria yang diinginkan
- ROA >=1% –> PASS
- ROA <1% –> FAIL
Part 2 – Kriteria Specific Per Kategori
Kriteria Specific – Fast Grower Company
PER untuk Fast Grower
Hal yang membuka mata saya sekaligus pergumulan di kepala saya. Perusahaan fast grower dengan pendapatan diatas 1 miliar usd (14 triliun rupiah) biasanya menjadi favorit market, sehingga tidak jarak PER dihargai mahal.
Tapi sebagus apapun perusahaan tersebut, jika PER >40 maka itu sudah terlalu mahal dan terlalu berisiko.
Mohon baca baik-baik, walaupun standard PER di poin ini adalah 40, perlu diingat ada 2 kriteria sebelumnya yang menyaring perusahaan ini untuk lolos atau tidak:
- Pendapatan diatas 1 miliar usd (14 triliun rupiah)
- PEG ratio <=1
Jangan jadikan point ini pembenaran untuk anda membeli perusahaan dengan PER tinggi. Peter Lynch ada melakukan filter PEG ratio terlebih dahulu, sehingga PER tinggi yang didapatkan hanyalah perusahaan dengan kualitas tinggi.
Kriteria PER untuk fast grower company
- Sales >=1 miliar usd & PER <=40 –> PASS
- Sales >=1 miliar usd & PER >40 –> FAIL
- Sales <=1 miliar usd –> FAIL
Kriteria Specific – Stalwart Company
Perusahaan akan dianggap sebagai stalwart company jika bisa menghasilkan revenue yang besar yaitu 2 miliar usd (28 triliun rupiah), tapi diberikan toleransi 5% sehingga menjadi 1.9 miliar usd (26 triliun rupiah).
Kriteria sales untuk stalwart company
- Sales >= 1.9 miliar usd (26 triliun rupiah) –> PASS
- Sales < 1.9 miliar usd (26 triliun rupiah) –> FAIL
Dan tentu saja kita mencari perusahaan yang masih bisa menghasilkan keuntungan, sehingga kita hanya membeli perusahaan dengan EPS (earning per share) dengan nilai positif (masih menghasilkan keuntungan)
Kriteria EPS untuk stalwart company
- EPS >0 –> PASS
- EPS <=0 –> FAIL
Kriteria Specific – Slow Growers Company
Peter Lynch menyukai perusahaan slow growers company yang cukup besar. Sehingga harus memiliki angka sales minimal 1 miliar usd (14 triliun rupiah)
Kriteria sales untuk slow growers company
- Sales >= 1 miliar usd (14 triliun rupiah) –> PASS
- Sales <=1 miliar usd (14 triliun rupiah) –> FAIL
Walaupun perusahaan ini tergolong kriteria slow growers, tapi tetap diharapkan mendapatkan imbal hasil (yield) lebih baik dari market. Yield yang dimaksudkan disini adalah peningkatan harga saham plus dividen yield.
- Yield >= %peningkatan bursa & >=3% –> PASS
- Yield >= % peningkatan bursa & <=3% –> FAIL
- Yield <= % peningkatan bursa & >=3% –> FAIL
Part 3 – Kriteria Bonus
Perusahaan yang memiliki free cash flow positif tentu adalah sebuah kondisi yang menarik.
- Free Cash Flow >= 35% market cap –> PASS
Kriteria ini tidak wajib. Sehingga jika tidak memenuhi kriteria ini bukan menjadi penghalang kita untuk memilih saham tersebut jika memenuhi semua kriteria yang lain.
Selain free cash flow, Lynch juga menyukai perusahaan yang memiliki banyak cash.
- Cash/Market Cap >=50% –> BEST
- Cash/Market Cap >=40% & <50% –> BETTER
- Cash/Market Cap >=30% & <40% –> GOOD
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