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Tutorial Valuasi Menggunakan DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

Tutorial DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) Studi Kasus SIDO
Tutorial DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) Studi Kasus SIDO

Banyak sekali yang minta dibuatkan materi untuk DCF (Discounted Cash Flow), oleh karena itu mari saya buatkan tutorialnya mumpun lagi kehabisan ide mau nulis apa.

Mari saya jelaskan logika dibalik dari DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) ini. Jika kita mau memiliki perusahaan maka tentu kita mau perusahaan itu bisa mendapatkan uang cash yang bisa kita nikmati. Kalau perusahaan cuma untung diatas kertas tapi tidak ada uang cashnya maka itu jadi untung saya ga invest di saham itu.

Mari kita jadikan SIDO sebagai contoh perusahaan yang akan kita gunakan sebagai contoh. Sebagai background SIDO adalah perusahaan yang menjadi favorit para growth investor tetapi dihindari oleh kebanyakan value investor.

Alasannya sederhana PER 26x dan PBV 7x bukanlah hal yang menarik secara valuasi. Tapi apakah SIDO akan menarik jika kita menghitung menggunakan DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) ini? Sejujurnya saya belum pernah cek. Jadi mari kita saksikan bersama.

Langkah 1 – Cari FCF (Free Cash Flow) Perusahaan

Parameter yang akan kita gunakan untuk perhitungan cashflow adalah free cash flow. Free cashflow ini merupakan total pengurangan antara CFO (Cash Flow from Operations) dikurangi dengan CAPEX (Capital Expenditure).

Mari saya jelaskan dengan bahasa yang lebih mudah dimengerti. Anda punya toko dapat uang hasil penjualan 1 tahun senilai 1 miliar rupiah. Anda bayar biaya gaji dan supplier senilai 500 juta rupiah. Maka CFO (Cash Flow from Operations) anda senilai 500 juta rupiah.

Guna menunjang kebutuhan bisnis anda, anda membeli mobil pick up seharga 150 juta rupiah. Maka CAPEX (capital expenditure) untuk membeli fixed asset senilai 150 juta rupiah.

Maka Free Cashflow anda senilai 350 juta rupiah. Artinya anda memiliki kelebihan uang cash di kantong anda setelah membayar semua biaya operasional dan beli aset senilai 350 juta rupiah.

Saya pribadi malas untuk menghitung FCF (Free Cash Flow) secara manual. Beruntung saya punya akses ke stockbit pro.

Setelah menemukan anga FCF maka kita harus melakukan proyeksi untuk FCF yang akan didapatkan emiten ini dalam waktu beberapa tahun kedepan. Anggap kita menggunakan parameter perhitungan 5 tahun.

 

Dari hasil perhitungan sederhana diatas, maka kita mendapatkan bahwa FCF terakhir SIDO  di tahun 2019 sebesar 837 dengan average growth 19% pertahun.

Free Cashflow SIDO
Free Cashflow SIDO

Mohon maaf gambar diatas terjadi salah copy data. Yang saya copy ternyata data CFO bukan FCF. Seharusnya yang benar adalah data dibawah ini

FCF SIDO (Revisi Data)
FCF SIDO (Revisi Data)

Sekarang kita akan menghitung berapa proyeksi FCF SIDO 5 tahun kedepan dengan menggunakan asumsi data diatas.

Projected FCF SIDO
Projected FCF SIDO

Maka kita akan mendapatkan data projected SIDO untuk tahun 2020 – 2024 seperti hitungan diatas.

Langkah 2 – Cari Discount Factor Yang Ingin Digunakan

Discount rate ini adalah target pengembalian yang diharapkan oleh sang investor. Biasanya paling proper menggunakan WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital). Tetapi karena tulisan ini bukan kuliah manajemen keuangan mari kita menggunakan angka asumsi saja. Karena yang penting tujuannya sama.

Saya pribadi sudah cukup puas jika return saya 2x dari suku bunga deposito. Jadi kalau suku bunga deposito saat ini 5% maka saya akan menggunakan discount factor 10%.

Kenapa tidak menggunakan discount factor sama kaya deposito? Lebih baik simpan sekali saja uangnya di deposito jauh lebih aman dan membantu anda untuk mendapatkan embel – embel nasabah prioritas. Lumayan bisa minum kopi gratis ketika di Bank.

Kalau lebih tinggi bagaimana? Tentu lebih baik lagi karena semakin tinggi discount factor yang digunakan maka semakin konservatif itungan anda dan semakin aman (semakin kecil) perhitungan nilai wajar yang anda dapatkan.

Langkah 3 – Tentukan Perpetual Growth

Selain kita harus membandingkan dengan discount factor maka kita juga harus mempertimbangkan dengan potensi pertumbuhan. Biasanya yang digunakan untuk parameter perpetual growth adalah rate inflasi. Mari kita gunakan angka 2.5% sebagai perpetual growth kita (pembulatan keatas dari inflasi di negara tercinta kita yang katanya sekian).

Langkah 4 – Hitung Terminal Value

Kalau kita lihat perhitungan diatas, kita hanya menghitung proyeksi hingga 5 tahun kedepan. Apakah 5 tahun kedepan SIDO akan tutup/bangkrut? Saya rasa harusnya tidak. Artinya perusahaan ini masih memiliki sebuah nilai yang belum kita perhitungkan terlepas dari proyeksi FCF dalam 5 tahun kedepan.

 

Rumus Terminal Value
Rumus Terminal Value
  • Mari kita ambil FCF di tahun 2025 yaitu 2,599 Triliun rupiah.
  • Perpetual Growth sebesar 2.5%
  • Discount Factor sebesar 10%

Maka setelah memasukan rumus diatas, kita mendapatkan nilai 34,654 triliun rupiah untuk terminal value dari SIDO ini.

Langkah 5 – Mencari Firm Value

FIRM Value SIDO
FIRM Value SIDO

Ketika sudah mendapatkan terminal value, maka masukkan discount rate untuk setiap tahun. Tahun pertama menggunakan 1.1 (untuk perhitungan present value 10%) tahun kedua meningkat 10% lagi sesuai discount factor dan seterusnya. Terminal value menggunakan discount factor yang sama dengan tahun terakhir.

Setelah itu silahkan bagi angka projected FCF dengan angka discount factor tersebut.

Anda akan mendapatkan angka present value setiap tahun. Jika anda jumlahkan, maka anda mendapatkan perhitungan yang disebut dengan firm value.

Firm Value untuk SIDO bernilai 27.457,36 miliar rupiah alias 27.4 triliun rupiah.

Langkah 6 – Menghitung Equity Value – Penyesuaian dengan Hutang 

Saya sebenarnya bingung dengan orang yang sinis terhadap konsep EV to EBIT karena selalu dibilang sebuah konsep yang menyesatkan. Dianggap menyesatkan karena sungguh aneh asumsi membayangkan perusahaan yang akan bangkrut.

Padahal dalam konsep DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) sendiri kita juga memperhitungkan hal tersebut. Kita harus menghitung total debts dari perusahaan ini. Alasannya tentu saja karena jika perusahaan bangkrut maka asset yang dilikuidasi akan digunakan untuk melunasi pemberi hutang terlebih dahulu. Kalau ada sisa baru deh investor kebagian.

Total debts SIDO saat ini berjumlah 395 miliar rupiah. Maka equity value adalah pengurangan dari firm value dengan total hutang total hutang perusahaan senilai 395 miliar rupiah.

Equity Value SIDO
Equity Value SIDO

Equity value SIDO adalah : 27.062,36 miliar rupiah alias 27 triliun rupiah.

Langkah 7 – Dapat deh Fair Value (Nilai Wajar) perusahaan

Equity value adalah 27.062.360.000.000 akan kita bagi dengan jumlah lembar saham SIDO sebanyak 30.000.000.000 lembar saham maka didapatkan nilai wajar SIDO senilai 902 rupiah per lembar saham atau mungkin jika kita bulatkan kebawah menjadi 705 rupiah per lembar saham.

Kesimpulan

Saya bukan investor yang terlalu rajin sebenarnya. Itu kenapa saya tidak terlalu suka melakukan perhitungan dengan metode Discounted Cash Flow ini. Saya suka dengan konsep perhitungan yang lebih sederhana seperti rumus perhitungan Benjamin Graham

Baca juga : Menghitung Nilai Wajar Benjamin Graham

Alasannya sederhana karena tidak ada rumus perhitungan nilai wajar yang akurat 100%. Itu kenapa kita selalu menggunakan margin of safety untuk mengurangi risiko kita.

Kenapa tidak ada yang akurat 100%? Karena masalah valuasi sebenarnya adalah masalah perspektif market. Tapi setidaknya perhitungan nilai wajar membuat semua terlihat lebih logis dibandingkan wajar harga naik karena lihat pesawat datang dan sekarang nyangkut.

Selalu gunakan margin of safety untuk perhitungan nilai wajar apapun yang anda gunakan.

Semoga artikel ini membuat konsep DCF yang rumit menjadi lebih mudah untuk dimengerti. Kalau masih susah untuk mengerti juga silahkan download template file excelnya dan silahkan copy paste angka FCF tiap tahun langsung deh beres.

Link download Template Perhitungan DCF

By the way jangan berasumsi saya bilang SIDO perusahaan tidak bagus ya. Saya selalu memiliki pandangan SIDO adalah perusahaan yang bagus karena orang pintar minum tolak angin.

 

 

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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