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Belajar Investasi Saham Dari Kenneth L Fisher

Guru Investor - Kenneth Fisher
Guru Investor - Kenneth Fisher

Kenneth Fisher adalah orang yang mempopulerkan tentang price to  sales ratio. Kebanyakan investor berpatokan pada price to earning ratio yang membandingkan harga saham dengan laba bersih per lembar saham.

Kenneth Fisher memiliki pandangan bahwa laba bersih sebuah perusahaan bisa fluktuasi tergantung kondisi perusahaan. Kita lihat beberapa contoh biaya yang menurut dia bisa mengurangi profitabilitas perusahaan padahal dapat meningkatkan profitabilitas perusahaan di masa depan:

  • Biaya research and development, biaya ini tentu akan mengurangi profitabilitas perusahaan di saat ini akan tetapi jika berhasil maka ini tentu akan memiliki dampak positif untuk profitabilitas perusahaan di masa depan.
  • Penggantian aset atau renovasi aset yang dapat menurunkan profitabilitas perusahaan di saat ini. Tapi jika keputusan penggantian aset dijalankan dengan bijaksana ini akan meningkatkan profitabilitas perusahaan di masa depan.

Jika investor hanya berpatokan pada melihat naik turunya laba bersih perusahaan yang bisa disebabkan fluktuasi untuk “biaya baik” seperti diatas maka investor tidak bisa mendapatkan pandangan yang jelas tentang kondisi perusahaan. Kenneth Fisher berpandangan bahwa angka sales (revenue) adalah sesuatu yang lebih tidak fluktuasi. Perusahaan yang sahamnya akan meingkat pesat biasanya akan dibarengi dengan peningkatan angka sales (revenue) walaupun bisa jadi angka laba bersih berkurang seperti kondisi yang dijelaskan diatas.

Latar Belakang Kenneth Fisher

Kenneth Fisher lahir dari keluarga investor. Ayahnya bernama Philip Fisher dikenal sebagai bapak growth investing di jamannya. Ayahnya adalah pengarang buku “Common Stocks and Uncommon Profit” adalah buku wajib bagi growth investor di masa tersebut.

Bahkan Warren Buffet muda sempat melakukan perjalanan ke California untuk bertemu dengan Philip Fisher untuk diskusi tentang investasi saham. Ayah Kenneth Fisher adalah seorang investor yang sangat dihormati di jaman tersebut.

Kenneth Fisher muda ingin memiliki karir diluar bisnis keluarganya di bidang investasi. Dia ingin berkarir di bidang forestry. Forestry ini yang akan menjadi salah satu sektor utama Fisher dalam berinvestasi kelak.

Desakan pihak keluarga membuat Fisher bekerja di perusahaan ayahnya. Perbedaan umur dan sudut pandang yang jauh antara Fisher muda dengan ayahnya membuat banyak perdebatan antara mereka berdua. Pada tahun 1973 Fisher mundur dari perusahaan ayahnya dan mendirikan perusahaan investasi sendiri. Perusahaan tersebut mayoritas berinvestasi pada perusahaan pengolahan kayu. Saat ini diperkiran dana kelolaan dari perusahaan Fisher sekitar 45 miliar USD.

Pemikiran Kenneth Fisher Dalam Memilih Saham

Kenneth Fisher adalah seorang investor yang suka mendalami market psychology. Fisher memiliki pandangan bahwa mayoritas investor selalu memiliki ekspektasi tidak realistis untuk perusahaan yang bertumbuh dan ketika akhirnya pertumbuhan tidak sesuai dengan ekspektasi mereka investor akan kecewa dan melakukan tindakan melepas saham yang sama tidak realistis.

Fisher suka mencari perusahaan yang termasuk kategori turnarounds kalau di kategori saham Peter Lynch.

Baca juga : Belajar Kategori Saham Peter Lynch

Untuk perusahaan dengan kategori turnarounds seperti itu seringkali perusahaan tersebut labanya sangat kecil bahkan tidak jarang negatif. Sehingga dia berpandangan tidak bisa melakukan evaluasi dengan melihat labanya, karena perusahaan itu belum bisa menghasilkan laba. Tetapi melakukan evaluasi dari sudut pandang peningkatan angka sales (revenue) adalah sesuatu yang lebih tepat menurut Fisher. Inilah kenapa Fisher suka menggunakan price to sales ratio dalam memilih saham.

Price to Sales Ratio secara konsep mirip dengan Price to Earning Ratio. Perbedaannya adalah Price to Earning Ratio membagi market cap dengan total net income sedangkan Price to Sales Ratio membagi market cap dengan total sales. Semakin kecil ratio tersebut maka semakin murah.

Contoh Perhitungan Price to Sales Ratio

  • Harga saham 1.000 per lembar saham
  • Jumlah saham beredar 1 miliar lembar saham
  • Sehingga market cap perusahaan tersebut bernilai 1 triliun rupiah (1.000 x 1 miliar lembar saham)
  • Jika angka sales perusahaan tersebut senilai 2 triliun rupiah, maka price to sales ratio perusahaan tersebut adalah 0,5 (1 triliun / 2 triliun).

Perbandingan Perusahaan Price to Sales Kecil Dengan Price to Earning Ratio Kecil

Perusahaan dengan price to sales ratio yang kecil artinya perusahaan tersebut memiliki angka revenue yang terbilang besar jika dibandingkan dengan market cap perusahaan tersebut. Sedikit perbaikan yang dilakukan yang dapat meningkatkan profit margin perusahaan akan meningkatkan laba perusahaan ini signifikan. Untuk lebih jelas tentang ini silahkan baca tentang saham cyclical, dimana ada penjelasan logis kenapa itu bisa terjadi.

Baca juga : Belajar Lebih Dalam Tentang Saham Cyclical

Tapi jika malas ke link lain untuk mencari penjelasannya, maka saya coba berikan ilustrasi sederhana tentang logika ini.

  • Perusahaan A dengan market cap 1 triliun dapat menghasilkan sales bernilai 2 triliun sehingga price to sales ratio 0.5.
  • Anggap perusahaan A itu bisa menghasilkan net profit margin 1% maka perusahaan itu akan menghasilkan laba bersih senilai 20 miliar rupiah (1% dari 2 triliun rupiah).
  • Jika kita lihat secara PER maka perusahaan ini senilai PER 50X (1 triliun dibagi 20 miliar rupiah).
  • Anggap perusahaan A ini bisa meningkatkan net profit margin menjadi 5% maka perusahaan ini akan menghasilkan laba bersih senilai 100 miliar rupiah (5% dari 2 triliun rupiah).
  • Jika kita lihat secara PER maka perusahaan ini senilai PER 10X
  • Perusahaan B dengan market cap 1 triliun  dapat menghasilkan sales bernilai 500 miliar rupiah sehingga price to sales ratio 2.
  • Anggap perusahaan B ini memiliki net profit margin yang lebih baik misalkan 10% maka laba perusahaan ini senilai 50 miliar rupiah.
  • Jika kita lihat secara PER maka perusahaan ini senilai PER 20X (1 triliun dibagi 50 miliar rupiah).
  • Anggap perusahaan B ini bisa meningkatkan net profit margin menjadi 14% maka perusahaan ini akan menghasilkan laba bersih senilai 70 miliar rupiah (14% dari 500 miliar rupiah). Sehingga PER perusahaan ini senilai 14,2X.
  • Jika kita melihat perbandingan 2 perusahaan tersebut maka perusahaan dengan price to sales ratio rendah memiliki potensi bertumbuh lebih besar dibandingkan perusahaan dengan price to earning ratio yang rendah secara valuasi kedepannya.

Memilih Karena Sebab Dan Bukan Hasilnya

Salah satu pemikiran yang menarik dari Kenneth Fisher adalah pilihlah perusahaan karena sebabnya dan bukan karena hasilnya. Perusahaan bisa mendapatkan laba (hasilnya) jika terjadi penjualan.

Jika perusahaan tidak bisa meningkatkan penjualan maka satu-satunya cara adalah menekan biaya (efisiensi) dan perusahaan tidak bisa terus menerus melakukan efisiensi. Efisiensi itu ada batasnya.

Akan tetapi jika perusahaan bisa memiliki angka sales yang tinggi maka produk mereka artinya memiliki penerimaan yang baik dari market dan lebih mudah dilakukan efisiensi untuk kedepannya.

Berinvestasilah pada sebab dan bukan hasilnya. Itu adalah pemikiran unik dari seorang Kenneth Fisher.

3 Aturan Price to Sales Ratio Kenneth Fisher

  • Hindari membeli perusahaan dengan Price to Sales ratio (PSR) lebih besar dari 1.5 dan jangan pernah beli perusahaan dengan PSR lebih dari 3.
  • Beli perusahaan dengan PSR <=0.75
  • Jual perusahaan jika PSR sudah >=3

NB: Sebenarnya ada tambahan satu lagi rule di paragraf terpisah. Jika sudah susah mencari saham dengan PSR <1.5 segera keluar dari pasar saham menurut Kenneth Fisher

Step By Step Screening Saham Ala Kenneth Fisher

Pilih perusahaan dengan Low PSR

Perusahaan Non Cyclical

  • PSR <=0.75 –> PASS (Best Scenario)
  • PSR >0.75 dan PSR <=1.5 –> PASS
  • PSR >1.5 dan PSR <3 –> Jangan beli saham tapi silahkan hold saham yang sudah dibeli
  • PSR >3 –> Jual saham tersebut

Perusahaan Cyclical

  • PSR <=0.4 –> PASS (Best Scenario)
  • PSR >0.4 dan PSR <=0.8 –> PASS
  • PSR >0.8 –> Jual saham tersebut

Untuk lebih mengerti perusahaan apa saja yang termasuk cyclical silahkan baca artikel dibawah ini.

Baca juga : Belajar Lebih Dalam Tentang Saham Cyclical

Pilih perusahaan dengan Low DER (Debt to Equity Ratio)

  • DER <=0.4 –> PASS
  • DER >0.4 –> FAIL

Price Research Ratio (PRR) Untuk Perusahaan Sektor Teknologi Dan Farmasi

Untuk perusahaan di sektor teknologi seperti apple, microsoft ataupun farmasi seperti kalbe, kimia farma maka butuh melakukan research and development. Biaya research and development bisa menjadi biaya yang besar untuk kedua sektor ini, tapi jika berhasil maka hasil penelitian tersebut akan menjadi penghasil profit yang luar biasa.

Cara mendapatkan PRR adalah membagi market cap perusahaan dengan biaya research and development. Penulis coba membuka satu annual report dari perusahaan farmasi di indonesia yaitu INAF. Sayangnya penulis yang sudah cek di bagian catatan pada annual report tidak berhasil menemukan besaran biaya research and development tersebut.

  • PRR <5 –> PASS (BEST SCENARIO)
  • PRR >=5 & <10 –> PASS
  • PRR >=10 & <=15 –> PASS
  • PRR >15 –> FAIL

Free Cashflow Positif

  • Free cashflow >0 –> PASS
  • Free cashflow <=0 –> FAIL

Perusahaan Masih Bisa Menghasilkan Net Profit

  • Average net profit 3 years >=5% –> PASS
  • Average net profit 3 years <=5% –> FAIL

NB: Untuk kriteria average net profit ini untuk kriteria super stock bagi Kenneth Fisher. Sehingga sebenarnya ini adalah kriteria optional. Kenneth Fisher sendiri suka berinvestasi pada perusahaan yang tipikal turnarounds yang seringkali masih mengalami kerugian.

Simulasi Saham Dengan Kriteria Kenneth Fisher

Penjelasan yang masuk akal dan sungguh simpel untuk melakukan screening (kecuali perusahaan farmasi) membuat saya penasaran perusahaan apa yang terjaring dengan kriteria dari Kenneth Fisher ini

Ternyata di stockbit sudah disediakan preset screener dari Kenneth Fisher ini.

Preset Screener Saham Stockbit - Kenneth Fisher
Preset Screener Saham Stockbit – Kenneth Fisher

Jika saya lihat setingan screener ini sudah sama dengan yang tertulis didalam postingan ini, cuma ada satu tambahan kriteria CAGR 15% yang saya rasakan berbeda antara preset screener di stockbit dengan yang saya dapatkan dari buku the guru investor.

Stockbit Screening Saham Kenneth Fisher - CAGR EPS
Stockbit Screening Saham Kenneth Fisher – CAGR EPS

Dengan CAGR EPS 3 tahun diatas 15% didapatkan hasil dua perusahaan yaitu MICE dan BUKK. Entah kenapa saya tidak terlalu sependapat dengan hasil screening ini.

Sekarang saya coba mengubah parameter dengan menghilangkan CAGR EPS 3 tahun tersebut, maka hasil yang keluar tentu lebih banyak. Sekarang saya melihat beberapa perusahaan yang memang saya rasa menarik ada MPMX, ITMG, IGAR, INCI, ELSA ataupun RAJA dari hasil tersebut.

Screening Saham stockbit Kenneth Fisher without CAGR EPS
Screening Saham stockbit Kenneth Fisher without CAGR EPS

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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    Еще один важный тип в Дизайне Человека — Манифестор. Этот тип уникален своей независимостью и способностью инициировать действия. Они не нуждаются в отклике, как Генераторы, и могут сразу принимать решения и действовать. Индивидуальная особенность Манифестора — это стремление к свободе и независимости. Их рациональная роль — прокладывать путь для других.

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    Заключение Каждый из четырех типов в Дизайне Человека имеет свои индивидуальные особенности, которые помогают им максимально эффективно взаимодействовать с миром. Понимание своего типа и его практического предназначения позволяет лучше организовать жизнь, выбрать правильные направления для работы и улучшить качество личных отношений.

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    Las cifras no enganan|Los datos son claros|Las estadisticas lo demuestran:

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    – Software con base de perfiles rotativos integrada|libreria de configuraciones industriales|catalogo digital de rotores

    Para Servicios en Campo

    – Dispositivos portatiles disenados para soportar entornos adversos|condiciones extremas|ambientes agresivos
    – Juego completo en maletin reforzado de dieciocho kilos

    Para Aplicaciones de Alta Precision

    – Sensores laser con sensibilidad de resolucion ultrafina
    – Cumplimiento con normas API 610 e ISO 1940|compatible con estandares internacionales

    (Error natural: “resistentes” como “resistentes”)

    5. Apoyo Tecnico Mas Alla del Hardware

    Ofrecemos:
    > Capacitacion tecnica directamente en tus instalaciones|entrenamiento personalizado in situ|formacion practica en campo
    > Actualizaciones gratuitas del firmware|mejoras constantes del software|actualizaciones periodicas sin costo
    > Asistencia remota las 24 horas del dia, los 7 dias de la semana, usando realidad aumentada|consultoria en tiempo real via RA|soporte tecnico virtual con herramientas AR

    Conclusion:
    En la era de la Industria 4.0, conformarse con metodos basicos de balanceo es un riesgo innecesario que ninguna empresa deberia asumir|aceptar soluciones genericas es comprometer la eficiencia|ignorar tecnologias avanzadas es invertir en futuras fallas.

    ?Preparado para revolucionar tu mantenimiento predictivo?|?Listo para llevar tu operacion al siguiente nivel?|?Quieres optimizar tu produccion desde ya?
    > Agenda una demostracion gratuita sin obligaciones|programa una prueba sin compromiso|solicita una presentacion tecnica gratis

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