Banyak orang yang memandang saham cyclical tidak cocok menjadi instrumen investasi karena ini merupakan investasi yang berisiko.
Saya setuju sekali bahwa investasi di saham cyclical ini memiliki risiko yang tinggi jika kita masuk di waktu yang salah. Saham cylical ini bisa naik sangat tinggi hingga five bagger jika kita masuk di momen yang tepat. Di satu sisi uang kita bisa hilang 50-70% jika kita masuk di momen yang salah. Investasi di perusahaan cyclical ini memang high risk dan high gain.
Lalu bagaimana untuk bisa mendapatkan keuntungan di saham cyclical? Mari kita bahas detailnya satu persatu.
Jenis Perusahaan Yang Termasuk Cyclical
Umumnya perusahaan cyclical terbagi menjadi 2 jenis:
- Siklus karena harga komoditas dagangan perusahaan tersebut
- Siklus karena besar kecilnya permintaan terhadap produk jualan perusahaan tersebut.
Perusahaan Cyclical Karena Harga Komoditas
Ini jenis perusahaan cyclical yang paling banyak dikenal oleh kebanyakan orang. Perusahaan – perusahaan di sektor mining ataupun agri contoh perusahaan didalam kategori ini. Perusahaan mining batu bara (coal), emas (gold), timah, nikel ataupun minyak harga jual komoditas mereka tergantung kontrak perdagangan yang berlaku di market.
Misalkan saja harga kontrak options untuk perusahaan coal yang berlaku adalah 51 usd, maka perusahaan coal tersebut tidak bisa menjual jauh diatas harga tersebut karena akan kalah persaingan di market.
Ini kenapa perusahaan yang paling efektif dalam proses produksi komoditas menjadi favorit banyak investor ketika harga komoditas lagi tertekan murah.
Perhitungan Pengaruh Harga Komoditas Terhadap Saham Cyclical
Anggaplah misalkan ITMG memiliki ongkos produksi 40 USD dan harga jual coal saat itu adalah 50 USD. Ini berarti ITMG mendapatkan profit 10 USD atau gross profit 25%.
NB: Data diatas hanyalah contoh data dan tidak mewakili angka sebenarnya dari perusahaan yang dijadikan contoh.
Ketika harga coal meningkat menjadi 55 USD yang berarti peningkatan sebesar 5 USD dari harga sebelumnya 50 USD (peningkatan harga 10%), maka gross profit ITMG menjadi 15 USD. (asumsi harga modal masih sama 40 USD)
Artinya gross profit yang sebelumnya bernilai 25% meningkat menjadi 37.5%. Artinya ada peningkatan sebesar 12.5% dari gross profit sebelumnya, yang berarti gross profit perusahaan ini bertumbuh 50% (12.5%/25%).
Peningkatan harga komoditas 10% membawa dampak peningkatan growth gross profit sebesar 50%. Itulah besarnya dampak naik / turunnya harga komoditas terhadap keuntungan perusahaan.
Hal ini yang membuat saham-saham cyclical pergerakan harga sahamnya sangat berhubungan erat dengan harga komoditasnya.
Mungkin ada yang bertanya, tapi ada perusahaan mining yang harga tetap di 50 walau batu bara naik turun. Uniknya entah kenapa harga perusahaan itu suka tiba-tiba naik luar biasa tinggi sekali dan akhirnya kembali lagi menjadi 50. Nanti akan saya jelaskan lebih lanjut tentang hal ini.
Untuk lebih jelas melihat gambaran relevansi harga komoditas terhadap pergerakan harga saham sudah saya bahas di riset saya yang berjudul gold-coal ratio. Disana saya juga ada bahas di harga berapa batu bara terbilang murah sebagai momen yang tepat untuk membeli saham perusahaan mining di harga murah dan di harga berapa batu bara terbilang mahal yang akan menjadi momen kita untuk menjual saham tersebut.
Baca juga : Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Batu Bara
Perusahaan Cyclical Karena Besar Kecilnya Permintaan
Seperti yang kita tahu tentang adanya permintaan dan penawaran didalam hukum ekonomi. Semua pergerakan harga di saham tergantung permintaan dan penawaran, termasuk harga komoditas yang sudah saya jelaskan diatas.
Tapi untuk kategori kedua ini ada perbedaan, harga produk yang dijual tidak mengikuti harga komoditasnya. Bahkan harga produknya selalu meningkat setiap tahun. Sehingga banyak yang tidak sadar bahwa perusahaan dengan kategori kedua ini termasuk perusahaan cyclical.
Ada jenis perusahaan yang jika pelanggan sudah memiliki produk tersebut mereka maka pelanggan tidak membeli produk tersebut sampai jangka waktu tertentu. Mari kita coba pikirkan perusahaan apa yang seperti itu.
Jika anda membeli mobil di tahun ini, apakah tahun depan anda berpikir untuk menambah mobil baru? Kecuali anda kolektor mobil mewah anda akan menjawab tentu tidak. Anda akan membelinya lagi mungkin setelah 5 or 6 tahun ketika sudah menggunakan mobil anda yang sekarang.
Jika anda sudah memiliki rumah, apakah tiap tahun anda berpikir untuk menambah rumah baru? Kecuali anda investor properti yang suka sewakan property maka tentu jawaban anda tidak. Anda akan membelinya mungkin ketika anak anda sudah kuliah di luar kota atau generasi muda mulai berpikir mencari hunian sendiri.
Ini kenapa kedua sektor ini walau tidak ada kaitan dengan harga komoditas, tetapi tetap termasuk kategori saham cylical.
Untuk kedua sektor tersebut kapan siklusnya perlu dijelaskan dengan data riset yang terpisah dari tulisan ini.
Kapan Waktu Paling Tepat Untuk Berinvestasi Di Saham Cylical
Menurut saya pribadi jika anda menemukan perusahaan cylical yang memberikan dividen besar maka belilah ketika justru harga komoditasnya di titik termurah. Untuk mengetahui bagaimana mengetahui harga komoditas apakah sudah mendekati titik termurah silahkan lihat tulisan saya tentang gold-coal ratio.
Baca juga : Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Batu Bara
Tapi jika perusahaan tersebut tidak memberikan dividen yield yang memuaskan anda maka ada baiknya anda tunggu ketika melihat trend harga komoditasnya naik ataupun demand untuk jenis produk mereka meningkat. Untuk komoditas lain selain batu bara, anda bisa buat perbandingan dengan gold untuk melihat titik termurah dan termahal dari harga komoditas tersebut.
Untuk automotive dan property nanti saya akan buatkan dalam tulisan terpisah ya, karena kalau tidak tulisan ini akan menjadi terlalu panjang.
Kapan waktu exit paling cepat? jual ketika sudah mencapai puncak siklusnya alias harga komoditas sudah terlalu mahal ataupun sudah mau berakhirnya musim permintaan produk dari perusahaan cyclical ini.
Apakah perusahaan cyclical cocok untuk dijadikan investasi seumur hidup? Saya memilih untuk menjawab tidak, karena walaupun betul di beberapa perusahaan tambang seperti PTBA anda bisa mendapatkan dividen yield yang tinggi. Tentu akan lebih baik kalau anda jual di harga tinggi dan gunakan semua uang penjualan anda membeli di harga rendah. Karena perusahaan cyclical ini dinilai wajar untuk mengalami penurunan 50%-70% ketika siklusnya berakhir. Anda bisa lipatgandakan jumlah lembar saham anda dengan menjualnya di puncak siklus dan membelinya di siklus terendah. Itu kalau di pandangan saya pribadi.
Kenapa Saham Perusahaan Cyclical Harga 50 Tetap Ada Peminatnya
Perusahaan cyclical banyak yang setia menghuni harga 50 (harga terendah yang bisa berlaku di pasar reguler IHSG). Umumnya perusahaan yang dihukum di harga 50 memang tidak memiliki kinerja keuangan yang menggembirakan.
Tetapi ketika euforia siklus cyclical ini muncul, perusahaan harga 50 tidak luput mengalami kenaikan luar biasa.
Mari kita adakan test singkat, mana yang menurut anda lebih menarik dari dua pilihan dibawah ini:
- Perusahaan A keuntungan meningkat dari 1T menjadi 1.5T
- Perusahaan B keuntungan meningkat 600%.
Saya yakin akan lebih banyak yang merasa perusahaan B lebih menarik walaupun keuntungan meningkat 600% ini bisa jadi perusahaan untung dari 1M jadi 6M. Angka kenaikan ratusan persen ini selalu memikat kita untuk takut ketinggalan momentum berinvestasi di perusahaan dengan growth super besar ini. Inilah yang bisa didapatkan oleh perusahaan tidak efektif yang biasanya merupakan penghuni harga 50.
Contoh Perhitungan Dampak Harga Komoditas Terhadap Perusahaan Cyclical Yang Kurang Efektif
Untuk lebih jelasnya, saya jelaskan dengan contoh dibawah ini.
- Harga jual batu bara awal 50 USD
- Ongkos produksi 48 USD
- Gross Profit 2 USD atau gross profit 4.1% (2 usd / 48 usd).
- Harga jual batu bara meningkat menjadi 55 USD dengan ongkos produksi asumsi sama 48 USD
- Gross profit menjadi 7 USD atau gross profit 14.5% (7 usd / 48 usd). Perubahan gross profit dari 4.1% menjadi 14.5% artinya gross profit tersebut tumbuh 253%. Media akan menuliskan perusahaan ini labanya tumbuh ratusan persen, hal ini biasanya memikat banyak orang untuk masuk ke saham ini karena takut ketinggalan.
Lalu kenapa saham ini akhirnya turun lagi? Apakah benar perusahaan ini digoreng? Saya tidak berani bilang seperti itu karena saya tidak punya bukti validnya. Tapi mari kita bicara dengan logika.
Perusahaan yang labanya naik 253% itu bisa jadi naik dari laba 10 Miliar menjadi 25 Miliar. Tapi itu tetap laba yang tidak besar jia dibandingkan dengan biaya bunga yang mereka harus bayarkan. Ketika market sadar bahwa perusahaan ini tetaplah berbahaya situasinya maka perusahaan itu akan kembali ke harga semestinya kembali.
Saya tidak ingin sebut kode perusahaan apa yang saya maksudkan, saya yakin kalian bisa berimajinasi sendiri. Tetapi yang mau saya terangkan di poin ini, peningkatan harga komoditas akan memiliki dampak yang jauh lebih besar terhadap perusahaan cyclical yang justru kurang efektif.
Kesimpulan
Berinvestasi pada perusahaan cyclical memang memiliki risiko yang tinggi, bahkan saya berpendapat ini bukan tipikal perusahaan yang cocok untuk dijadikan investasi seumur hidup.
Tetapi jika kita mengerti bagaimana siklus dari perusahaan cyclical maka kita bisa meraih keuntungan yang menarik.
Jadi timing untuk masuk dan keluar ketika berinvestasi di perusahaan cyclical adalah hal yang sangat penting untuk menentukan kesuksesan kita.
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