Bayu adalah seorang anak berusia 7 tahun. Dia sedang masuk ke ruang keluarga tempat dimana ayah dan ibunya sedang bersantai. Ketika sang ibu melihat Bayu, sang ibu berseru: “Bayu! kenapa kamu mainkan itu vas bunga kuno warisan keluarga kita? Itu vas antik, harganya sangat mahal. Letkan kembali vas itu hati-hati di meja, jangan sampai rusak.”
Bayu menjawab: “Tidak bisa bunda, sebab tangan saya menyangkut didalam vas bunga ini.”
Ibu menjawab: “Kalau kamu bisa masukan tangan kamu, seharusnya kamu bisa untuk keluarkan lagi bukan?”
Bayu menjawab: “Tidak bisa bunda.” dengan muka hampir menangis.
Sang ayah yang dari tadi diam, menghampiri Bayu untuk melihat tangan dan vas tersebut. Ayah mencoba menarik tangan Bayu dengan perlahan, Bayu menjadi meringis kesakitan. Ayahnya berhenti lalu kali ini mencoba mengambil air sabun dan melumuri tangan Bayu. Setelah itu si ayah mencoba menarik tangan Bayu lagi dan masih juga gagal.
Akhirnya sang Ayah menjadi putus asa dan berkata: “aku menyerah, siapa aja yang bisa membuat tangan kamu keluar akan ayah berikan uang 100.000 rupiah.”
“Benarkah?” Seru Bayu. Kemundian terdengar suara logam berdenting dan Bayu bisa mengeluarkan tangan dari vas tersebut. Akhirnya Bayu bisa mengeluarkan tangannya dari vas tersebut, setelah diperika ternyata didalam vas tersebut ada uang logam 1.000 rupiah. Ayahnya bertanya kenapa ada uang di vas tersebut?
Bayu menjawab: “Oh itu adalah uang logam yang Bayu simpan di sana. Karena Bayu ingin mengeluarkannya jadi tadi tangan Bayu harus digengamkan. Karena itu Bayu tidak bisa mengeluarkan tangan Bayu. Tapi karena tadi bapak mau memberikan 100.000 rupiah maka Bayu lepaskan uang logam 1.000 rupiah tersebut.
Pesan Yang Ingin Disampaikan
NB: Tulisan ini diambil dari tulisan yang berjudul Menggenggam Masalah karangan Galatia Chandra.
Pengarang aslinya menyampaikan bagaimana Gojek terus menerus mencari penyelesaian masalah transportasi, sehingga bisa mempunyai valuasi decacorn. Bahkan sekarang bisnis yang menjadi core nya menjadi berubah, apakah bisnis pengantaran makanan (Go Food)? Atau bisnis jasa keuangan (Go Pay).
Semua itu menjadi mungkin ketika Gojek tidak terus menerus menggenggam masalahnya. Terus berinovasi, mencari terobosan2 yang lain.
Sebab pada akhirnya semua goal dari perusahaan, mengapa sebuah masalah itu perlu dituntaskan adalah peningkatan pelayanan pada pelanggan yang akan memicu semakin banyaknya pelanggan dan pada akhirnya memberikan profit yang tinggi.
Untuk investor saham juga sama terlalu terpaku kepada masalah yang sama. Banyak dari mereka yang tidak bisa move on dari masalah yang terjadi didalam investasi mereka. Mungkin anda berinvestasi pada perusahaan yang kena suspend tahunan atau bisa jadi anda berinvestasi pada perusahaan yang delisting. Bisa jadi anda mengalami kerugian diatas 50% dari investasi anda. Banyak dari mereka menjadi menyalahkan pihak lain dari kerugian yang dialami karena keputusan yang mereka lakukan sendiri dalam keadaan sadar. Padahal jika mereka fokus untuk memecahkan masalahnya bisa jadi mereka mendapatkan keuntungan dari hal lain.
Kisah Saya Dalam Menghadapi Kejatuhan Pasar Saham Ketika COVID-19
Pembaca tulisan saya dari awal mungkin mengetahui bahwa saya memiliki 5 saham investasi di tahun lalu, yaitu ITMG, TBLA, MPMX, PNLF dan satu lagi kode saham yang saya belum ungkapkan di forum stockbit.
Menjadi pembelajaran saya paling bagus mungkin adalah TBLA dan saham kelima. Tapi karena saya memang masih belum mau ungkap saham kelima itu, mari kita buat cerita ini dengan saham TBLA ini saja lebih dahulu.
Akhir tahun lalu average TBLA saya mendekati 800, untuk lebih mudah mari kita sebut average buy saya di 800. Akhir desember 2019 TBLA sempat hampir angka 1.000. Artinya floating profit saya sempat di 20%. Tanpa diduga wabah Covid-19 muncul dan terjadi kejatuhan di pasar saham, sehingga pada maret 2020 TBLA sempat jatuh hingga ke 500. Ini berarti floating profit 20% saya berubah menjadi floating loss -50%, ini senilai kejatuhan nilai portofolio saya sebesar 70% hanya dalam waktu 3 bulan saja.
![TBLA Des 2019 - August 2020](https://www.investorsaham.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TBLA.png)
Tanpa terasa kurang dari 5 bulan berikutnya TBLA sudah diatas harga average saya ketika Desember 2019 kemarin (sebelum saya average down dengan diskon super sale covid-19) kemarin.
Apakah jika saya bisa kembali ke Desember 2019 dan tahu portofolio saya di saham itu akan turun 70% maka saya memilih menjualnya terlebih dahulu dan membelinya kembali di bulan Maret 2020? TENTU SAJA, tapi sayangnya hal itu tidak mungkin bisa terjadi. Saya tidak ada lepas 1 lot pun saham investasi yang jatuh. PNLF, ITMG dan MPMX masih dibawah harga desember 2019. Hanya TBLA dan saham kelima saya yang harga perhari ini sudah diatas harga desember 2019.
Tetapi tahun ini malah imbal hasil investasi saya tampaknya malah lebih baik dari tahun lalu sejujurnya. Selain karena saya bisa average down lima saham saya dan beberapa saham bahkan sudah diatas harga desember 2019, tampaknya hampir semua pembelian yang dilakukan ketika wabah covid-19 mendapatkan return yang terbilang baik.
- IPCC pembelian di 292 –> jika mengacu pada harga sekarang di 408 itu berarti peningkatan 40%
- WEGE pembelian di 146 –> jika mengacu pada harga sekarang di 189 itu berarti peningkatan 29%
- BBRI pembelian di average sekitar 2.650 –> jika mengacu pada harga sekarang di 3.340 itu berarti peningkatan 26%
- MMLP pembelian di average sekitar 140 –> jika mengacu pada harga sekarang di 188 itu berarti peningkatan 34%
- Beberapa keuntungan saham dengan “holding period” singkat seperti HKMU yang beli di 64 dan berhasil jual di 94 dan 97 (2 kali siklus jual beli) ataupun MNCN yang cuma seminggu hold setelah beli di 780 dan jual di 930.
Ketika saya berfokus untuk tidak menyesali kenapa saya tidak menjual sebelum pasar jatuh dalam saya lebih mencoba berfokus apa peluang yang bisa diambil dari kejatuhan market tersebut. saya hanyalah seorang value investor yang hanya bisa menilai mana perusahaan yang kinerjanya baik dan mana perusahaan yang dinilai kemurahan oleh market. Sayangnya saya tidak bisa menebak besok IHSG ataupun harga saham suatu perusahaan akan bergerak kemana.
Ketika pembuatan jurnal dari investasi saya, saya baru sadar ternyata walaupun saya berinvestasi sebelum market crash maret 2020 kemarin yang artinya saya mengalami kejatuhan nilai portofolio yang besar. Ternyata 5 bulan berselang saya cukup kaget, tahun ini saya hasilnya tidak minus malah kinerjanya sudah plus diatas 15% dari total modal. Bukan hal yang wah, karena saya tahu banyak member stockbit yang meraih profit jauh lebih tinggi dari saya, terutama untuk yang baru masuk ke market dengan full cash di maret kemarin. Saya rasa 100% bukan hal yang susah untuk didapatkan oleh mereka yang baru masuk di pasar saham pada bulan maret 2020 kemarin. Tapi untuk saya yang mengalami kejatuhan mengerikan di tahun ini, ini sesuatu yang sudah menggembirakan bagi saya.
Simpel Adalah Kerumitan Level Paling Tinggi
Banyak orang yang percaya semakin rumit cara yang digunakan maka hasilnya pasti semakin baik. Seperti halnya cerita lama dimana astronot amerika, mereka butuh mencatat hasil pengecekan mereka di luar angkasa. Sedangkan di luar angkasa tidak ada gravitasi sehingga mereka harus menggunakan pena anti gravitasi sehingga terbentuk penelitian yang menghabiskan 1 juta USD untuk menemukan pena canggih tersebut.
![Pena Luar Angkasa](https://www.investorsaham.id/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Pena.png)
Sedangkan astronot rusia menggunakan pensil yang tidak ada halangan dengan gravitasi. Sebuah solusi yang lebih simpel dan jauh lebih ekonomis untuk mendapatkan tujuan yang sama.
Banyak orang yang tidak percaya bahwa ada cara yang simpel untuk membuat mereka sukses di bidang yang digelutinya. Cara simpel adalah untuk orang yang kurang wawasan. Padahal di dunia konsultan, yang akan dianggap konsultan paling pintar adalah konsultan yang bisa memberikan solusi paling simpel yang bisa langsung diterapkan bahkan oleh orang bodoh sekalipun.
Untuk mencapai level tersebut dibutuhkan pemahaman yang sangat mendalam untuk mengerti berbagai permasalahan yang dihadapi dan memberikan solusi sebagai jalan keluar untuk antisipasi masalah yang terjadi. Inilah kenapa simpel menjadi kerumitan yang paling tinggi. Karena sebuah metode atau sistem yang simpel baru bisa dibuat, ketika orang sudah memiliki pengalaman di bidang tersebut.
Ketika saya mengalami penurunan portofolio 70% di TBLA dari Desember 2019 ke maret 2020 kemarin maka saya merasa biasa saja. Saya terus average down dengan senang hati saham tersebut. Kenapa saya bisa melakukan hal tersebut? karena saya sudah mengerjakan pekerjaan rumah saya untuk mengecek perusahaan tersebut dengan segala kelebihan dan kekurangan dari perusahaan tersebut. Yang penasaran dengan analisa saya tentang TBLA bisa baca di tulisan saya yang berjudul Tutorial Analisa Value Investing.
Baca juga: Tutorial Analisa Value Investing
Kenapa saya akhirnya membeli saham lain seperti IPCC, WEGE, BBRI, MMLP dan saham lainnya? alasannya simpel saja, karena menurut saya perusahaan-perusahaan itu memiliki kinerja yang ok dan dijual dengan harga yang murah saat saya membelinya. Untuk mengetahui apa yang saya pertimbangkan dalam mencari saham untuk investasi bisa baca tulisan saya tentang teknik mencari saham bagus dan murah.
Baca Juga : Teknik mencari saham bagus dan murah
Kenapa saya ada berani membeli saham HKMU, MNCN dan beberapa saham lainnya yang sempat saya beli untuk “holding dalam jangka pendek”? simpel karena saya menemukan HKMU sulit turun dibawah 64 dan MNCN sulit turun dibawah 770 dan saya lihat risk reward rationya menarik. Untuk yang mau mengerti tentang apa itu risk reward ratio silahkan baca tulisan saya tentang teknik 2R.
Baca Juga; Teknik 2R – Teknik Rahasia Para Trader
Saya tidak melakukan hal yang rumit didalam investasi saham saya. Untuk analisa 1 perusahaan dari sisi fundamental saya kurang dari 10 menit (diluar cek annual report, saya cek annual report kalau merasa mulai tertarik ambil saham itu). Untuk analisa 1 perusahaan untuk trading saya kurang dari 2 menit (sudah termasuk pembuatan trading plan).
Kesimpulan
Kalau anda mengalami kegagalan atau kesalahan didalam investasi anda maka kabar baiknya semua investor lain juga pernah mengalami hal yang sama dengan anda. Warren Buffet, George Soros, Peter Lynch ataupun Lo Kheng Hong pernah mengalami kerugian di investasi sahamnya.
Jika anda mengalami kegagalan atau kesalahan maka pelajari apa yang menyebabkan anda melakukan kesalahan. Apa yang harus anda lakukan agar anda tidak melakukan kesalahan yang sama di kemudian hari. Menyalahkan orang lain atau tidak bisa move on dari kesalahan anda tidak membuat anda menjadi lebih baik. Bisa jadi dengan melupakan kerugian itu anda malah mendapatkan keuntungan yang jauh lebih besar, seperti Bayu yang mau melepaskan 1.000 di tangannya untuk mendapatkan 100.000 dari ayahnya.
Saran saya sebagai teman anda, temukan cara investasi / trading yang paling simpel dan efektif yang bisa anda lakukan dan cocok dengan anda. Tidak mungkin ada sistem yang 100% sempurna, selalu ada celah anda mengalami kegagalan / kerugian apapun sistem / metode yang anda gunakan.
Tapi kunci dari semua keberhasilan adalah konsistensi, jika cara / metode yang anda gunakan terlalu rumit maka anda akan sulit menjadi disiplin untuk mengikuti cara / metode tersebut. Tanpa disiplin maka anda tidak akan bisa meraih kesuksesan dalam jangka panjang.
Wanita tidak akan bisa memiliki badan seperti jennifer Lopez ataupun pria tidak bisa memiliki badan seperti Christiano Ronaldo jika hanya pergi ke gym 1 bulan sekali. Tanpa kedisplinan anda tidak akan bisa meraih tujuan anda.
Tanpa cara/metode yang simpel maka anda akan sulit untuk menjadi disiplin, yang berarti anda akan sulit untuk sukses.
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