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Teknik Investasi ala Albert Einstein

Teknik Investasi - Albert Einstein
Teknik Investasi - Albert Einstein

Teknik Investasi Apa Yang Digunakan Oleh Albert Einstein?

Tidak banyak yang tahu bahwa Albert Einstein adalah seorang investor saham. Menurut tulisan James Yeo, Albert Einstein menginvestasikan uang hasil menang nobel kedalam investasi saham. Tapi sayangnya investasi ilmuwan terhebat ini berakhir buruk karena crash 1929. Mungkin itu alasan kenapa kita jarang mendengar bahwa Albert Einstein adalah seorang investor saham. Tapi ada landasan pemikiran menarik tentang teknik investasi dari Albert einstein yang perlu kita pahami.

Kebiasaan Jelek – Ingin Cepat Kaya

Tahun 2017 kemarin, Indonesia pernah dihebohkan dengan orang bernama Dimas Kanjeng, yang dipercaya bisa melipatgandakan uang. Dan menariknya banyak orang yang tertarik untuk melipatgandakan uang dibantu oleh dia.

Dan seperti yang kita tahu hasil dari investasi cepat kaya ini tidak berbuah manis dan membuat investornya gigit jari.

Kasus Penipuan Dimas Kanjeng
Kasus Penipuan Dimas Kanjeng

Padahal di abad 19 pernah hidup seorang yang kayanya sampai sekarang diakui sebagai manusia terpintar di bumi yang bernama Albert Einstein. Albert Einstein ada mengajarkan 1 teknik rahasia di dunia investasi yang dijamin bisa melipatgandakan uang. Yang diperlukan cuma 2 faktor : Kesabaran dan Kedisiplinan

Teknik Rahasia itu bernama “Compound Interest”. Saking kagumnya dengan konsep itu, Albert Einstein sampai bilang “Compound Interest is the 8th wonders of the world” yang artinya bunga berbunga adalah keajaiban dunia kedelapan.

Silahkan download file excel untuk membantu perhitungan compound interest, silahkan teman – teman lakukan simulasi sesuai dengan kondisi keuangan kalian di saat ini.

Apa itu Compound Interest?

Konsep compound interest ini sangat mudah, kalau kita nabung 1 juta dan dapat bunga 10% maka uang kita menjadi 1,1 juta. Dan ketika mendapatkan bunga 10% maka bunga 10% tersebut dari 1,1 juta sehingga menjadi lebih besar lagi.

Biar lebih menarik, saya langsung masuk ke simulasi:

  • Anggap saya menabung tiap bulan sebesar 1 juta
  • Artinya dalam 1 tahun saya akan menabung sebesar 12 juta
  • Anggap target return 20% per tahun
  • Jika anda disiplin menambahkan jumlah yang sama tiap tahun selama 10 tahun, artinya total uang yang diinvestasikan selama 10 tahun berjumlah 120 juta
  • Dengan return 20% per tahun maka uang anda setelah 10 tahun menjadi sebesar 373 juta dengan return 1 tahun menjadi 62 juta atau return bulanan sekitar 5 juta setiap bulannya.
  • Tidak terasa ada yang spesial. 20%x10 tahun = 200%. 120jt kalau return 200% kan jadi 360jt.
  • Sekarang mari kita lihat dengan 20 tahun, dalam 20 tahun total uang modal yang disetor ke investasi sebesar 240jt (12jt x 20 tahun).
  • Jika return 20% x 20 tahun maka harusnya menjadi 400%, artinya dari 240 juta uang yang kita setor harusnya naik jadi 5x lipat secara total uang atau 1,2 miliar.
  • Mari kita lihat di table, setelah 20 tahun uang anda menjadi 2,6 miliar. Dengan return tahunan 448 juta dan return bulanan 37 juta.
  • Maka disini kita mulai melihat perbedaan yang mulai jauh.
Simulasi Compound Interest
Simulasi Compound Interest

Saya yakin banyak dari kalian yang sudah tahu tentang konsep compound interest. Untuk yang belum tahu, mari berinvestasilah dari sekarang. jangan minder jika anda cuma bisa invest 50rb per bulan, silahkan liat hasilnya di excel. Hasilnya sungguh tidak jelek.

Kenapa Saya Tidak Suka Investasi Di Reksadana?

Saya keberatan dengan biaya 4% di reksadana, karena menurut saya biaya itu terlalu besar. Mari sekarang kita simulasi dengan mengganti angka target %return per tahun untuk melihat dampak 4% terhadap investasi jangka panjang kita.

Mengacu kepada data yang sama seperti yang digunakan di perhitungan diatas, jika kita lakukan analisa:

  • Dengan return 20% per tahun, maka total uang kita di tahun ke 20 menjadi 2,688 miliar rupiah dengan return tahunan 448 juta dan return bulanan sekitar 37 juta
  • Dengan return 16% per tahun (saya kurangkan 4%) –> total uang kita di tahun ke 20 menjadi 1,6 miliar rupiah dengan return tahunan 221 juta dan return bulanan sekitar 18 juta

Jika kalian liat dengan return selisih 4% maka perbedaan jumlah uang hampir 2x lipat, perbedaan return tahunan dan bulanan menjadi 2x lipat.

Jika kita coba simulasi dengan return 19% per tahun (Mari kita lihat dampak selisih return 1%). Total uang kita dapatkan di tahun ke 20 menjadi 2,3 miliar rupiah dengan return tahunan 377 juta dan return bulanan 31 juta. 1% membuat selisih uang menjadi 13% dan selisih return menjadi 20% secara akumulasi jangka panjang.

Dalam jangka pendek selisih 1-4% tidak lah berdampak signifikan. Tapi kita berinvestasi untuk jangka panjang, dan seperti yang kita lihat dampaknya cukup besar untuk keuangan kita secara jangka panjang.

Tips Penting Dalam Berinvestasi

Tips 1 – Kurangi Gaya Hidup dan Tambah Modal Investasi

Apapun teknik investasi yang kalian pelajarin, tidak mungkin bisa mengalahkan return jika kalian disiplin menambahkan modal investasi anda. Anda rutin tambahkan uang di deposito dengan bunga 6% secara disiplin pasti endingnya anda akan lebih kaya dari seorang trader yang bisa konsisten profit 50% per tahun tapi modal trading dia tiap tahun cuma 10jt.

Kurangi gaya hidup konsumtif anda dan tambahkan lebih banyak uang untuk investasi anda

Tips 2 – Konsistensi Lebih Penting Daripada Target Untung Besar

Kita tidak perlu terpaku mencari teknik investasi dengan return luar biasa besar. Waren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Ray Dalio dan investor besar sukses lainnya juga rata – rata return tahunan “hanya” sebesar 20-25%.

Pengajar yang menjanjikan teknik investasi dengan return 50-100% kepada anda apakah sudah lebih kaya daripada 3 orang yg saya sebutkan itu? Tanpa anda menjawab saya sudah tahu jawabannya. Karena kalau dia lebih kaya tentu dia tidak akan menjual training kepada anda.

Tips 3 – Disiplin Dengan Sistem Investasi Anda

Carilah teknik investasi yang anda bisa konsisten untuk dapatkan return yang stabil dan disiplin dengan jalan yang anda tempuh:

  • Jika anda berkeyakinan trading adalah jalannya maka disiplin lah dengan trading system kalian.
  • Jika anda berkeyakinan Quality Investing adalah jalannya maka disiplin carilah perusahaan yang memiliki margin bagus, dividen bagus, ROE bagus dan dikelola manajemen yang baik
  • Jika anda berkeyakinan Value Investing adalah jalannya maka disiplin hanya membeli saham dengan kinerja keuangan yang baik dan lagi dijual murah
  • Jika anda berkeyakinan investasi saham gorengan adalah jalannya, maka bergaullah dengan pemain besar agar kalian bisa dapatkan informasi kapan saham itu digoreng dan target akumulasinya (cuma ini strategi yang saya pikir paling tepat untuk gorengan)
  • Jika anda tidak tahu anda mau yang mana, maka belajar lagi dan letakkan uang anda di deposito atau obligasi terlebih dahulu. Investasi saham tanpa ilmu yang cukup sama dengan kehilangan uang.

Baca juga : Panduan Lengkap Value Investing

Tips 4 – Perhatikan Biaya Transaksi

Selalu perhatikan biaya investasi anda, ingat 1% itu punya dampak cukup besar untuk investasi anda. Maka 4% itu impactnya 2x hasil investasi anda. Perhatikan biaya – biaya investasi anda. Dulu ketika saya masih menjadi seorang trader, saya kaget melihat besarnya biaya komisi saya dalam 1 tahun.

Investasi bukan perlombaan lari 100 meter, tapi perlombaan lari marathon. Lebih dibutuhkan stamina daripada kecepatan sesaat.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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