Untuk mengetahui langkah – langkah yang perlu dilakukan value investing sebelumnya dapat dilihat di tulisan sebelumnya.
Baca juga : 5 Langkah Value Investing – Part 1
Langkah 2 – Menghitung Nilai Intrinsik / Harga Wajar Saham dan Margin of Safety ala Value Investing
Teknik value investing mewajibkan investor untuk membeli saham yang dijual dibawah nilai intrinsik / harga wajar saham. Anda bisa saja mengalami kerugian dari investasi saham perusahaan bagus jika anda beli di harga kemahalan. Anda bisa saja mengalami keuntungan yang bagus dari investasi saham perusahaan jelek jika anda beli di harga sangat murah.
Pertanyaan paling banyak ditanyakan adalah bagaimana menghitung nilai intrinsik / harga wajar suatu saham ?
Ada berbagai metode untuk menghitung nilai intrinsik / harga wajar suatu saham. Setiap investor juga memiliki preferensi masing – masing terkait metode mana yang mereka gunakan.
Berbagai metode untuk menghitung nilai intrinsik / harga wajar suatu saham:
Menghitung Nilai Intrinsik ala Benjamin Graham
Di tahun 1962, dalam bukunya berjudul “security analysis”. Benjamin Graham menggunakan rumus valuasi sebagai berikut:
V(Nilai wajar) = EPS x (8,5 + 2G)
8,5 adalah PER rata-rata untuk perusahaan yang tidak tumbuh labanya dan G adalah EPS Growth dari 10 tahun terakhir.
Nilai wajar = 141,84 x (8,5 + 2×15)
Nilai wajar = 5460
Harga wajar / Nilai intrinsik saham
Tapi jika dilihat, teknik valuasi itu dirasa sangat agresif. Sehingga akhirnya Benjamin Graham melakukan revisi rumus untuk valuasi saham menjadi:
V = EPS x (8,5 + 2G) x ( 4,4/AAA)
*8,5 adalah PER rata-rata untuk perusahaan yang tidak tumbuh labanya
*4,4 adalah risk rate free, atau return dari investasi yang kecil resikonya seperti deposito. Untuk indonesia rata2 deposito adalah 6,5%
*AAA adalah bunga obligasi jangka panjang
Penambahan elemen bunga deposito dan obligasi digunakan untuk mengurangi besaran nilai wajar dikarenakan rumus lama. (semakin besar bunga deposito dan obligasi yang digunakan akan semakin kecil nilai wajarnya). Dan kembali lagi, semakin kecil nilai wajar maka semakin aman kita berinvestasi.
Setelah disesuaikan dengan rate di indonesia, maka rumusan valuasi Benjamin Graham ini diubah menjadi :
V = EPS x (8,5 + 2G) x (6,5/AAA)
V = 141,84 x (8,5 + (2×15)) x (6,5/11,625)
V = 3053
Baca Juga : Menghitung Nilai Wajar Saham ala Benjamin Graham
Menghitung Nilai Intrinsik ala Warren Buffet
Jika kita menggunakan rumus dari Benjamin Graham umumnya kita tidak akan bisa mendapatkan saham big caps seperti BCA, BRI, Unilever, Sampoerna. Karena perusahaan – perusahaan tersebut memiliki Price to Earning Ratio (PER) yang tinggi. Yang artinya Earning per Share (EPS) mereka tidak terlalu tinggi.
Sedangkan Earning per Share (EPS) merupakan variabel kunci dalam perhitungan nilai intrinsik / harga wajar di formula Benjamin Graham. Warren Buffet melakukan analisa lebih menyeluruh. Sehingga bisa melihat potensi perusahaan lebih jelas. Ini kenapa beberapa perusahaan big caps masih bisa memenuhi nilai intrinsik atau harga wajar menurut perhitungan Warren Buffet.
8 langkah menghitung nilai intrinsik / harga wajar ala Warren Buffet (studi kasus HMSP dengan data laporan keuangan 2019):
Langkah 1 – Menghitung initial rate of return
Rumus initial rate of return = EPS / Harga saham
Jika hasilnya diatas suku bunga bank sentral (BI rate) maka boleh dilanjutkan ke langkah berikutnya. BI Rate per hari ini di kisaran 5%.
Tujuan dari initial rate of return adalah mencari perusahaan yang memiliki persentase laba bersih lebih besar dibandingkan BI rate. Persentase laba bersih ini bukan persentase net income. Persentase yang dimaksud adalah persentase laba bersih dibandingkan dengan uang yang kita bayarkan untuk investasi saham kita.
Contoh Perhitungan ( NB: Data ini saya buat di stockbit per tanggal 8 Januari 2020)
- EPS : 116
- Harga Saham : 2.220
- Initial Rate of Return : 116/2.220
- Initial Rate of Return : 5.23% (karena diatas BI Rate maka kita bisa ke langkah berikutnya)
Langkah 2 – Hitung rata – rata persentase ROE after payout 5 tahun terakhir
Kita perlu mencari 2 hal terlebih dahulu:
- Average ROE (return on Equity) 5 tahun terakhir, contoh : 44%
- Average Dividen Payout Ratio (DPR) 5 tahun terakhir, contoh : 99%
Setelah mendapatkan kedua hal tersebut maka kita menggunakan rumus:
Rumus Average ROE after Payout = Average ROE * (1-Average Dividen Payout Ratio)
Average ROE after Payout : 44% * (1-99%)
Average after Payout : 0.46%
Langkah 3 – Hitung proyeksi equity/share 5 tahun kedepan
Rumus Proyeksi Equity per Share = PV(1+i)^(n-1)
- Total equity tahun terakhir : 35,358,000,000,000 rupiah
- Total lembar saham beredar : 116,320,000,000
- Equity per share : 303,97 (Total equity / Total share outstanding)
- Future Equity per share after 5 years = 303.97*(1+0.46%)^5)
- Future Equity per share after 5 years = 311,06
Langkah 4 – Konversikan proyeksi equity/share menjadi future EPS
Rumus Future EPS : Future Equity per share x Percent average ROE after payout
Future EPS : 311,06 x 0.46%
Future EPS : 137,22
Langkah 5 – Hitung future stock price
Future stock price : Future EPS * Rata-rata PER 5 tahun (NB: Jika PER saat ini lebih rendah maka gunakan PER saat ini)
Average PER 5 tahun terakhir : 36.93
PER saat ini : 19.6
Future stock price : 137.22 x 19.6
Future stock price : 2.690
Langkah 6 – Hitung future stock price + dividen
Current EPS : 116
Future EPS after 5 year : 137,22
Growth EPS : 9.54% (Silahkan gunakan file excel terlampir untuk mendapatkan formula perhitungan via excel)
Future EPS 5 year : SUM (current EPS * (1+growth EPS)^5)
- Future EPS tahun 1 : 127,06
- Future EPS tahun 2 : 139,19
- Future EPS tahun 3 : 152,47
- Future EPS tahun 4 : 167,02
- Future EPS tahun 5 : 182,96
- Total EPS 5 years = 768,71
Dividen Payout Ratio : 99%
Total Proyeksi Dividen 5 year : 768,71 * 99%
Total Proyeksi Dividen 5 year : 760,66
Future stock price : 2.690
Future stock price plus dividen : 2.690 + 760.66
Future stock price plus dividen : 3450.66
Langkah 7 – Hitung expected rate of return menggunakan average ROE
Syarat expected rate of return menurut Warren Buffet:
- Expected rate return ROE >15% (Pilih – Best case)
- Expected rate raturn ROE <15% dan >=12% (Pilih)
- Expected rate return ROE <12% (Buang)
Future stock price plus dividen : 3450.66
Current Price : 2.220
Expected rate return ROE : 9.22% (Gunakan excel terlampir untuk dibantu perhitungan ini)
Sehingga jika HMSP dengan current price 2.220 seharusnya kita tidak membeli saham ini karena masih dianggap mahal.
Langkah 8 – Menghitung Nilai Wajar
Di langkah nomor 7 sebenarnya kita sudah melihat bahwa jika HMSP diharga 2.220 masih dianggap mahal. Tapi karena perusahaan ini memiliki kinerja yang bagus maka kita ingin daftarkan kedalam watchlist kita.
Lalu berapakah nilai wajar yang pantas untuk saham ini? maka kembali kepada expected ROE minimum yang harus dipenuhi. Expected ROE minimum yang harus dipenuhi adalah 12% atau best case nya adalah 15%.
Sehingga untuk mendapatkan expected ROE minimum 12% maka nilai wajar saham tersebut di angka 1.960 (gunakan excel terlampir untuk mendapatkan cara perhitungannya).
Download : Excel File Perhitungan Nilai Intrinsik ala Warren Buffet
Metode lain untuk perhitungan nilai intrinsik ala Value Investing
Sebelumnya saya sudah menjelaskan secara overview metode perhitungan nilai intrinsik / harga wajar dari 2 value investor paling terkenal.
Selain dua metode ini banyak cara lain yang digunakan untuk perhitungan nilai intrinsik / harga wajar. Yang kalau saya bahas satu persatu tidak akan ada habisnya.
2 metode lain yang paling populer adalah:
- Discounted Cash Flow, silahkan klik ini untuk contoh perhitungannya.
- EVA, silahkan klik ini untuk contoh perhitungannya.
Margin of Safety (Marjin Pengaman) ala Value Investing
Market sering sekali bersifat tidak rasional sehingga apapun metode perhitungan nilai intrinsik / harga wajar suatu saham tersebut tidak bisa dijamin akurasinya. Untuk itu perlu yang disebut dengan marjin pengaman (margin of safety).
Margin of safety (MoS) diperkenalkan pertama kali oleh Benjamin Graham. Sebaiknya kita sebagai investor hanya melakukan investasi saham yang memiliki selisih harga sekian persen dengan nilai intrinsik / harga wajar saham.
Misalkan nilai intrinsik / harga wajar saham tersebut bernilai 3.000 per lembar saham. Margin of Safety (MoS) yang kita gunakan adalah 25% maka kita boleh membeli saham tersebut maksimal di harga 2.250 per lembar saham.
Sebenarnya untuk menghitung Margin of Safety (MoS) memiliki rumus untuk menentukan. Tapi saya sendiri tidak menggunakan rumus tersebut. Saya sendiri selalu menggunakan Margin of safety 50%. Artinya jika saham tersebut memiliki nilai intrinsik 3.000 per lembar saham, maka harga maksimum pembelian saya adalah 1.500 per lembar saham.
Apakah itu terlalu sadis? Pada maret 2020 sangat mudah sekali anda menemukan saham – saham dengan kriteria yang memenuhi kriteria saya. Sehebat apapun anda menghitung harga wajar tetap saja anda bisa melakukan kesalahan. Apalagi market yang sering bertindak tidak rasional. Margin of Safety membantu mengurangi resiko anda membeli kemahalan. Yang berarti meminimalisasi resiko kerugian dan meningkatkan peluang profit dari investasi saham kita.
Langkah 3 – Menentukan waktu yang tepat untuk investasi saham ala Value Investing
Banyak pengajar saham jika ditanya kapan waktu yang tepat masuk kedalam investasi saham ? Mereka menjawab sekarang.
Sayangnya saya tidak bisa menjawab seperti itu. Saya tahu bagaimana market bisa begitu kejam dan tidak rasional.
Banyak sekali investor yang membeli perusahaan yang memiliki kinerja bagus tapi mengalami kerugian besar. Banyak juga investor yang membeli perusahaan yang jelek tapi mengalami keuntungan besar.
Sungguh dilematis yang aneh bukan. Tapi itulah yang menjadi kenyataan di investasi saham. Memilih perusahaan bagus saja tidaklah cukup. Waktu yang tepat adalah segalanya didalam investasi saham.
Perihal waktu yang tepat ini adalah bidang keahlian dari seorang contrarian investing. Jadi mari kita belajar bagaimana menentukan timing yang tepat untuk investasi saham dalam investasi ala value investing yang kita lakukan:
Down by the half rules
Konsep berpikir seorang penganut contrarian investing adalah beli ketika market begitu pesimis dan jual ketika market begitu optimis.
Salah satu yang menjadi ciri market begitu pesimis adalah harga saham yang terus menurun.
Kita sebagai investor harus bisa membedakan dua tipe resiko di investasi saham, yaitu:
- Market risk : Penurunan harga saham karena market bersikap tidak rasional, sebagai contoh tekanan jual yang begitu tinggi karena virus corona
- Company risk : Penurunan harga saham karena perusahaan mengalami permasalahan di kinerja bisnisnya.
Jika penurunan harga saham karena market risk maka sebenarnya adalah peluang yang bagus untuk kita. Karena penurunan itu bersifat sementara saja.
Contoh kasus market risk:
Gambar diatas saya ambil dari salah satu perusahaan tambang dengan kode ITMG. Hari ini harga sahamnya di 6.675 per lembar saham ketika saya lagi menulis ini.
Menurut perhitungan saya, di bulan april ITMG akan membagi dividen sebesar 590. Dan hebatnya lagi ITMG selalu rutin membagi dividen 2x dalam setahun. Dimana bulan november ITMG akan membagi dividen interim dari keuntungan di tahun berjalan.
Marilah kita berasumsi dengan penurunan kinerja perusahaan imbas virus corona dan harga batu bara yang terus tertekan, dividen interim di bulan november hanya sekitar 710. Artinya saya akan mendapatkan total dividen sebesar 1.300 di tahun 2020.
Dividen 1.300 ini berarti dividen yield sebesar 19.5% dari harga saat ini. Artinya jika kinerja batu bara terus jelek seperti ini maka dalam 5 tahun kita bisa mendapatkan balik modal hanya dari dividen nya saja.
Apalagi harga batu bara sudah mencapai titik terendahnya, dan akan susah untuk lebih rendah lagi. Dimana saat ini gold-coal ratio sudah di angka 23X dan gold-coal ratio tertinggi dari 2008 hingga sekarang ada di 24X.
Baca juga : Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Harga Batu Bara
Ini adalah contoh dari market risk dan ini adalah peluang emas yang tidak setiap tahun terjadi.
Tapi jika harga saham turun diikuti dengan berbagai masalah yang jelas terjadi seperti MYRX. Dimana ownernya ditangkap, aset disita, dan tidak bisa membayar kewajiban kepada para nasabah maka ini jelas adalah company risk.
Maka carilah perusahaan yang harga sahamnya sudah turun lebih dari 50% dan penurunan ini karena market risk dan bukan company risk.
Membandingkan historis data PER dan PBV
Price to Earning Ratio (PER) dibawah 10 dan Price to Book Value (PBV) dibawah 1 adalah kriteria saham murah.
Tapi jika sepanjang sejarah PER perusahaan itu ada di 10 dan saat ini PER perusahaan ini ada di 9 – 10 maka perusaahan ini tidak sedang dijual murah.
Jika kita lihat data diatas HMSP memiliki Price to Book Value (PER) sebesar 4.72. Jika mengacu pada PBV dibawah 1 adalah murah, maka perusahaan ini masih dianggap mahal. Jika kita melihat bahwa dalam 5 tahun terakhir PBV HMSP rata – rata di 10. Maka PBV 4.72 ini menjadi terlihat murah
Begitu juga Price to Earning Ratio (PER) sebesar 10.72. Ini sangat murah karena PER HMSP berada di rata – rata 30.
Jadi dalam melihat PER dan PBV jangan terpaku dengan patokan PER dibawah 10 dan PBV dibawah 1. Tapi kita harus tahu berapa nilai wajar PER dan PBV perusahaan yang kita mau investasikan ini berdasarkan historical data.
Saya pribadi suka mencari saham dengan PER dan PBV yang terdiskon 50% dari rata – rata PER dan PBV menurut historis data.
Menunggu adanya insider yang melakukan pembelian
Yang termasuk insider adalah:
- Pemegang saham pengendali : Sekuritas, badan usaha, investor tunggal yang memiliki kepemilikan saham diatas 5%
- Direksi perusahaan : Perusahaan memiliki jaringan direksi, setiap kali direksi melakukan pembelian saham akan dilaporkan walaupun kepemilikan masih dibawah 5%.
Ini adalah parameter paling penting. Ketika ada insider yang melakukan pembelian dalam jumlah besar maka saham itu akan memiliki potensi kenaikan yang bagus. Ketika insider melakukan penjualan dalam jumlah besar maka saham itu memiliki potensi penurunan harga saham.
Secara logika insider ini memiliki keterbukaan informasi dibandingkan kita investor retail. Dan semua investor selalu bertujuan mencari keuntungan. Jika mereka membeli dalam jumlah besar artinya mereka mendapatkan sebuah informasi bagus yang membuat mereka yakin perusahaan mereka akan naik.
Ketika mereka menjual dalam jumlah besar artinya mereka mendapatkan sebuah informasi yang membuat mereka memiliki kekhawatiran harga saham akan mengalami penurunan.
Sayangnya sebagai investor retail seperti kita, kita tidak bisa mengetahui keterbukaan informasi tersebut.
Ada baiknya kita menunggu konfirmasi sampai ada insider yang melakukan pembelian dalam jumlah besar untuk menjadi konfirmasi bahwa ini adalah keputusan tepat untuk kita melakukan investasi di saham tersebut.
Baca juga : 5 Langkah Value Investing – Part3
link Download : Excel File Perhitungan Nilai Intrinsik ala Warren Buffet tidak dapat di akses (error).
kalau tidak keberatan di kirimkan file excel nya ke kuarsa2000@gmail.com atau bisa di perbaiki link unduh nya, dan kami coba unduh ulang.
terima kasih
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https://mag-wiki.win/index.php?title=Wrestling_games_for_pc
Test large amounts of game content with just a couple of clicks. Our exploratory bot goes anywhere and everywhere a player can go. Googling the words “bot for mobile games” shows upwards of 38,000,000 results. Given how easily it is to employ a bot, it’s no leap of faith to imagine that thousands of games could be under attack right now. I hope moments like these are taken into the consideration when adding the private lobbies hosting games or whatever you will call it. Thanks “So far over the past 2 weeks we’ve seen bots in like 5 games. I don’t mean people who are bad or they aimbot, but as in they’re actually controlled by a bot. They move weird, they hard feed, and they never get over 1k damage or healing,” they said. “Thankfully they’ve always been on the enemy team so I get a free win but I don’t know why they even exist?”
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