
Saya sangat menyukai buku Money Master The Game – Anthony Robins, karena dari buku ini memperkenalkan saya dengan teknik portofolio 4 musim miliki Ray Dalio.
Buku yang berisikan lebih dari 800 halaman ini berisikan rangkuman nasihat investasi dari investor terhebat saat ini seperti Carl Ichan, David Swensen, John Bogle, Warren Buffet, Paul Tudor Jones, Ray Dalio, Maria Callahan Erdoes, T.Boone Pickens, Kyle Bass, Marc Faber, Charles Schwab dan Sir John Templeton.
Anthonny Robbins melakukan wawancara ekslusif terhadap investor-investor hebat tersebut dan meminta apa nasihat investasi terbaik yang mereka bisa berikan. Ada satu nasihat yang sama diberikan oleh semua investor tersebut, yaitu melakukan ALOKASI ASET.
Mengenal Tingkat Resiko Anda
Kebanyakan investor sering melihat berapa potensi profit yang mereka inginkan dari investasinya, tetapi sering lupa berapa besar resiko investasi yang harus siap mereka tanggung dari investasi mereka.
Mari kita adakan kuis singkat, mana yang anda pilih dari pilihan dibawah ini:
1. 100% kesempatan untuk memenangkan uang tunai 10 juta rupiah.
2. 50% kesempatan untuk memenangkan 50 juta rupiah
3. 25% kesempatan untuk memenangkan 100 juta rupiah
4. 5% kesempatan untuk memenangkan 1 miliar rupiah.
Jika anda memilih pilihan nomor satu, maka anda adalah seorang investor konservatif. Anda tidak rela melihat peluang adanya potensi kehilangan uang anda. Jika portoflio investasi anda 100% di saham, maka anda membuat portofolio investasi yang kurang pas dengan anda. Karena sehebat apapun anda, investasi saham itu memiliki resiko yang tinggi.
Semakin besar nomor pilihan anda, maka semakin besar resiko yang siap anda ambil. Maka semakin besar anda boleh mengambil resiko didalam investasi anda. Karena anda sudah memiliki kesiapan hati untuk menerima kerugian besar. Tidak perlu malu untuk mengakui jika anda seorang konservatif, tidak ada yang salah dengan hal tersebut.
Wadah Aman dan Wadah Risiko/Pertumbuhan
David Swensen, seorang investor yang sangat dihormati dalam hal alokasi aset menerangkan. Investasi terbagi dalam wadah yang berbeda:
- Wadah Aman : Instrumen investasi yang memberikan imbal hasil yang lebih kecil tapi dengan tingkat resiko yang lebih kecil. Contoh : Deposito, Obligasi.
- Wadah Risiko/Pertumbuhan : Instrumen investasi yang memberikan imbal hasil yang lebih besar tapi juga memiliki resiko kerugian yang juga besar. Contoh: Saham, Komoditas.
Sekarang mari kita melakukan pengujian kecil apakah portofolio investasi anda sudah sesuai dengan tingkat resiko anda. Caranya sangat sederhana:
- Tuliskan berapa total modal investasi anda, misalkan saja kita masukan asumsi 100 juta rupiah.
- Berapa persentase portofolio investasi anda yang masuk kedalam wadah risiko/pertumbuhan, misalkan saja kita masukann asumsi 50%. Itu berarti total dana investasi anda didalam wadah risiko/pertumbuhan sebesar 50 juta rupiah.
- Total angka tersebut anda kalikan dengan 60% sehingga anda akan menemukan angka 30 juta rupiah. Itulah angka FLOATING LOSS / CUT LOSS yang harus siap anda tanggung. Jika anda bisa merasa menerima nominal dalam rupiah itu dan tidak membuat anda panik, maka saya rasa besaran persentase yang anda investasi kedalam wadah risiko pertumbuhan sudah sesuai dengan tingkat risiko anda. Tapi jika anda merasa jumlah itu membuat anda ketakutan, artinya anda tidak memiliki bobot persentase investasi dalam wadah risiko/pertumbuhan yang sesuai dengan karakteristik risiko anda.
Apakah Angka Floating Loss 60% itu Tidak Terlalu Besar?
Pasti akan ada banyak pihak yang ketika melakukan pengujian diatas tidak bisa menerima floating loss 60% tersebut. Angka floating loss itu terlalu besar, saya membeli saham blue chip. Blue chip never lies, blue chip selalu naik.
Jujur saya setuju saham perusahaan bagus akan selalu naik untuk jangka panjang. Tapi tidak ada saham yang tidak bisa turun.
Januari 2020 saham yang dipercaya akan selalu naik, yaitu BBCA sempat ke harga tertinggi 35.300 rupiah per lembar saham. Maret 2020, harga saham BBCA sempat menyentuh ke harga terendah 21.625 rupiah per lembar saham. Ini berarti BBCA mengalami penurunan sebesar -38.7% dalam waktu dua bulan.
Januari 2018 saham HMSP dihargai dengan harga 5.550, Maret 2020 sempat ke harga terendah 1.010. Itu penurunan sebesar 81% dalam jarak dua tahun investasi.
Dua perusahaan itu tentu bukan perusahaan gorengan. Dua perusahaan itu memiliki kinerja keuangan luar biasa. Tapi dua perusahaan itu tetap tidak bisa menahan market yang tidak rasional dalam menurunkan harga saham.
Ini situasi khusus, krisis penyebaran wabah COVID-19 tidak terjadi setiap tahun. Bursa saham dalam jangka panjang akan selalu naik. 100% saya setuju dengan statement tersebut. Tapi andaikata anda memiliki modal investasi awal anda 100 juta diawal, dan anda mengalami floating loss -50% di tahun ini. Maka uang anda tinggal tersisa 50juta. Tahun kedua bursa bergerak naik anda meraih keuntungan 50%, uang anda menjadi 75 juta rupiah. Tahun berikutnya anda meraih keuntungan 50% lagi, yang anda menjadi 112.5 juta.
Berapa rata-rata return tahunan investasi anda, selamat anda mendapatkan rata-rata return investasi sebesar 16% pertahun. Tapi jika melihat peningkatan uang anda dalam rupiah uang anda hanya meningkat 12.5% dalam 3 tahun, atau jika tanpa memperhitungkan compound interest rata-rata return aktual anda cuma 4.16% pertahun.
Keseimbangan Yang Tidak Seimbang
Dua tahun berturut-turut meraih keuntungan 50% di pasar saham adalah sesuatu yang membahagiakan. Tetapi jika anda mengalami kerugian besar ditahun sebelumnya, imbal hasil anda kalah bahkan oleh return dari bunga deposito yang masih sekitar 5-6% saat tulisan ini dibuat.
Jadi apa yang harus dibuat, apakah saya harus membagi 50% investasi saya dalam wadah risiko/pertumbuhan dan 50% investasi pada wadah aman?

Sayangnya Ray Dalio tidak sependapat dengan itu. Pembagian 50% pada wadah risiko pertumbuhan dan 50% pada wadah aman dinilai terlalu berisiko olehnya.
Ray Dalio adalah orang yang harus didengarkan jika kita belajar tentang portofolio investasi. Jika anda harus memiliki
Dari tahun 1973 hingga 2013, S&P 500 telah kehilangan uang sembilan kali, dan jumlah kehilangan kumulatif sebesar 134%. Selama periode yang sama, obligasi hanya kehilangan uang sebanyak tiga kali, dan kerugian kumulatif hanya sebesar 6%. Jadi jika anda memiliki portofolio 50/50, S&P 500 akan menyumbang 95% dari kerugian anda. Sehingga pembagian bobot 50/50 ini dianggap tidak seimbang olehnya.
Portofolio Investasi 4 Musim – Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio menerangkan bahwa hanya ada empat hal yang mengubah harga aktiva:
- Inflasi
- Deflasi
- Meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi
- Menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi

Instrumen apa yang cocok untuk masing-masing musim tersebut? silahkan lihat gambar dibawah ini:

Tahun depan akan terjadi musim apa? tidak ada yang bisa menebak hal tersebut. Ketika akhir tahun lalu mungkin orang menyangka tahun 2020 akan terjadi masa inflasi, tetapi kenyataannya justru kita berada didalam situasi deflasi.
Akhir tahun 2019, banyak orang optimis IHSG akan ke 7.000. Tidak pernah ada yang menyangka sama sekali jika awal tahun ini dunia terserang krisis COVID-19.
Inilah kenapa Ray Dalio membuat portofolio investasi 4 musim yang bisa digunakan apapun musim yang dihadapi.
Sebagai catatan, dari tahun 1984 hingga 2013 (30 tahun), Ray Dalio hanya pernah mengalami empat kali kerugian. Rata-rata kerugian adalah -1,9% dan maksimum -3.93%.
Anda tidak salah baca, Ray Dalio melewati krisis 1998, krisis 2005, krisis 2008 yang mengerikan. Hebatnya, dalam 30 tahun dia hanya mengalami kerugian 4x dan maksimum kerugian -3.93%.
Kisah Tim dan Tom, Average Return Sama Tapi Beda Nasib.
Tim dan Tom sama-sama investor yang berhasil mengumpulkan dana pensiun 5 Miliar rupiah. Karena sudah pensiun mereka berdua sudah tidak memiliki pemasukan. Mereka hanya bisa bertahan hidup dengan uang pensiun dan hasil investasi mereka.
Mereka berdua pensiun di umur 65 tahun dan bertahan hidup sampai umur 82 tahun (17 tahun setelah pensiun).
Untuk biaya hidup, Tim dan Tommengambil 5% dari total dana pensiun awal untuk biaya hidup tiap tahunnya. Dan tentu karena adanya inflasi, setiap tahun mereka berdua menambahkan 3% biaya hidup dari tahun sebelumnya.
Mereka berdua sama-sama memiliki average return 9.5% pertahun dari imbal hasil investasi mereka selama masa pensiun.
Yang menjadi perbedaan adalah kondisi tahun mereka mengalami pensiun. Tim pensiun di saat yang tidak tepat, dimana ketika Tim pensiun kondisi market mengalami crash.
Tom pensiun di momen market dalam keadaan normal. Dimana kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomi berjalan dengan baik.

Tim mengalami kondisi pensiun bertepatan dengan market terjadi crash, sehingga dia harus melihat hilangnya aset investasi dia di awal masa pensiunnya.
Berikutnya pasar pulih dan investasi Tim mengalami peningkatan. Hingga akhirnya rata-rata return tahunan sebesar 9.5%. Tetapi ironis ketika berumur 82 tahun, semua uang Tim habis bahkan tidak cukup untu biaya hidupnya.
Tom dengan total dana pensiun sama persis dengan Tim mengalami kondisi pensiun di situasi market yang normal, di periode awal pensiunnya dana Tom mengalami peningkatan investasi.
Biaya hidup Tom juga sama persis dengan biaya hidup Tim.
Di akhir-akhir masa hidupnya, Tom mengalami minus yang cukup besar secara berurutan. Hingga akhirnya rata-rata return tahunan Tom juga sebesar 9.5%.
Pada akhir usianya diumur 82 tahun, Tom masih memiliki kekayaan sebesar lebih dari 13 miliar rupiah untuk diwariskan.
Saya berikan satu rahasia dari simulasi ini, saya cuma membalik persentase return Tom dan Tim. Ini kenapa average return mereka persis sama. Tetapi walaupun average return sama, kita melihat perbedaan nasib yang begitu jauh dari kedua orang ini.
Bagaimana Menyusun Portofolio 4 Musim Seperti Ray Dalio?
Seperti yang kita lihat di contoh kisah Tim dan Tom, bahwa angka average return tahunan bernilai bias. Atau seperti kisah rata-rata return 16% pertahun yang sebenarnya cuma 4.16% pertahun seperti contoh sebelumnya.
Beruntunglah Anthony Robbins meminta Ray Dalio membagi contoh bobot portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio yang bisa diikuti oleh investor retail seperti kita. Ray Dalio berbaik hati memberikan contoh tersebut walaupun tidak sama 100% dengan portofolio investasi. Karena akses produk yang investasi yang bisa dia akses tentu tidaklah sama dengan kita yang investor retail ini.

Ray Dalio menyarankan untuk kita membagi bobot investasi kita menjadi:
- 30% di saham
- 15% di obligasi jangka menengah
- 40% di obligasi jangka panjang
- 7.5% di emas
- 7.5% di komoditas
Apakah Portofolio Investasi 4 Musim Ray Dalio Relevan Dengan Kondisi Market Indonesia?
Anda memiliki rasa penasaran yang sama dengan saya. Sehingga saya mencoba take action untuk membuat simulasi data ini dan mencoba menyajikan untuk anda.
Ketika saya melihat hasilnya, saya tidak percaya dengan apa yang saya lihat. Untuk kalian bisa lihat datanya dengan detail, silahkan download file excel yang berisikan data riset saya
Saya mencoba membuat dua perbandingan simulasi menggunakan data market Indonesia dari tahun 1991 – 2019 (29 tahun).
Return saham saya menggunakan pergerakan harga IHSG.
Saya sangat struggling untuk mengumpulkan data obligasi, sehingga mohon maaf jika dirasa kurang tepat. Tapi semua data obligasi yang saya gunakan memang produk obligasi yang memang ada. Bisa dilihat di tab data historis untuk detail data.
Return emas saya menggunakan data historis XAUUSD (komoditas emas) karena dua alasan:
- Saya tidak bisa mendapatkan data historical emas batangan antam dari tahun 1991 – 2019
- Saya benci investasi emas batangan yang menurut saya nilai spread jual belinya sangat tidak fair untuk investor.
Untuk komoditas saya menggunakan harga Crude Oil, sebuah komoditas paling utama yang dilihat oleh market global.
Setiap tahun mau investasi naik atau turun, harus selalu dilakukan alokasi aset sampai memiliki bobot semula, hal ini perlu dilakukan minimal setahun sekali.
Hasil Investasi Menggunakan Alokasi Aset Portofolio 4 Musim Ray Dalio di IHSG

Jika gambar terlalu kecil, silahkan download file excel dan lihat langsung di excel yang sudah dishare untuk melihat lebih jelas.
Pada tahun 1991 jika anda investasikan uang anda senilai 10 juta rupiah tanpa ada penambahan apapun lagi setiap periode. Maka di tahun 2019 uang anda senilai sekitar 235 juta.
Average return dengan alokasi aset menggunakan metode portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio hanya bernilai average return sekitar 12% pertahun.
Jika anda investasikan 100% di IHSG maka average return anda adalah sebesar 16% pertahun.
Average return 100% di saham mengalahkan average return portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio secara angka persentase. Tapi mari kita lihat hal yang sangat menarik dari hal ini.
Hasil Investasi Menggunakan 100% Saham di IHSG
Menggunakan data tahun yang sama seperti data diatas. Seperti yang sudah disebutkan, average return portofolio 100% di saham memiliki average return pertahun lebih besar dibandingkan average return dari portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio.

Tetapi sungguh ajaib, jika kita investasikan 100% modal 10 juta kita di IHSG sejak tahun 1991 hingga 2019. Modal tersebut tumbuh menjadi sekitar 153 juta rupiah dengan average return 16% pertahun.
Saya tidak sedang salah menulis, ataupun anda tidak sedang salah membaca. Rata-rata return investasi 100% disaham menghasilkan average return yang lebih besar sekitar 4%pertahun.
Jika anda baca tulisan saya tentang teknik investasi Albert Einstein, anda akan menyadari berapa besarnya perbedaan 4% pertahun itu terhadap kekayaan jangka panjang anda
Baca juga : Teknik Investasi Ala Albert Einstein
Tetapi ajaibnya, average return 16% pertahun dari 100% investasi di IHSG mengembangkan uang 10 juta anda menjadi 153 juta. Tetapi average return 12% pertahun dari 100% investasi menggunakan portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio mengembangkan uang 10 juta anda menjadi 235 juta rupiah.
Anda Bingung Kenapa Itu Bisa Terjadi?
Saya juga mengalami kebingungan yang sama dengan anda. Saya tidak percaya dengan hasil ini. Lalu saya menyadari sesuatu hal:

Dari 29 tahun data market ini, jika kita mengikuti portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio kita hanya mengalami kekalahan 5x dengan loss paling besar -11% di tahun 2008. Kita akan meraih keuntungan terbesar senilai 41% di tahun 1993.
Dari 29 tahun data market yang sama, jika kita berinvestasi 100% di saham. Kita akan mengalami kekalahan 10x dengan loss paling besar -51% di tahun 2008. Kita akan meraih keuntungan terbesar senilai 115% di tahun 1993.
Mari kita lihat apa yang terjadi dengan dana kita di tahun 2008. akumulasi kerugian yang dihadapi oleh portofolio investasi 100% di saham, membuat dana investasi yang semula sekitar 66 juta turun menjadi 33 juta rupiah
Tetapi di tahun yang sama akumulasi kerugian yang dihadapi oleh portofolio 4 musim ini hanya membuat modal yang senilai 88 juta rupiah turun menjadi 78 juta rupiah. Di tahun 2008, portofolio 4 musim membuat uang anda lebih dari 2x dibandingkan investasi 100% di saham.
Hal yang paling membuat perbedaan ini menjadi begitu jauh adalah, selama 29 tahun berinvestasi. Dengan portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio anda mengalami total akumulasi loss -33% sedangkan portofolio 100% disaham membuat anda menderita akumulasi loss -147%.
Kita tidak pernah tahu apa yang terjadi dengan situasi market kita, sehingga penting bagi kita untuk membuat alokasi aset untuk mengamankan kekayaan kita. Agar kita memiliki masa pensiun seperti Tom dan tidak menderita di akhir-akhir hidup kita seperti Tim.
Kita tidak wajib mengikuti panduan portofolio 4 musim Ray Dalio. Tetapi tangkap idenya, dan silahkan mainkan file excel yang saya sudah berikan untuk membuat portofolio investasi anda.
Yang penting selalu ingat alokasi aset tidak sama dengan membagi dana ke instrumen investasi yang berbeda. Alokasi aset adalah MEMBAGI RISIKO dari investasi kita.
thank you..
sy cek histori harga emas batangan di tahun 1992 ada 2 versi, satu Rp 16.226/gram, yg satu Rp 23.050/ gram
katakanlah kita ambil yang paling mahal, dengan uang 10jt didapat 433 gram yang kalo kita kalikan harga pada tahun 2019 sebesar Rp 750.000/gram, maka didapat uang 324.750.000 rupiah.
dan ini berbeda kalau sy masukkan ke excel riset bapak jika investasi emas 100% maka hasil akhirnya 38.537.142 rupiah.
bagaimana menurut anda, apa ada faktor yg luput kita perhatikan?
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