Bedah Laporan Keuangan ITMG
Bedah laporan keuangan ITMG ini diposting pada tanggal 12 Desember 2019 di forum stockbit
Link : https://stockbit.com/post/3297286
Kode : ITMG
Industri : Coal Mining
Total Saham beredar : 1,13 Milliar lembar
Market Cap : 12,115 triliun rupiah.
Analisa Valuasi
EPS 2008 – 2276,64
EPS 2009 : 2791,49 (+22,61%)
EPS 2010 : 1624,46 (-41,81%)
EPS 2011 : 4382, 82 (+169,80%)
EPS 2012 : 3697,46 (-15,64%)
EPS 2013 : 2488,17 (-32,71%)
EPS 2014 : 2204,49 (-11,4%)
EPS 2015 : 770,46 (-65,05%)
EPS 2016 : 1554,27 (+101,73%)
EPS 2017 : 3028,31 (+94,87%)
EPS 2018 : 3357,14 (+10,84%)
Rata2 Growth EPS = 23,33% per tahun
Valuasi saham : 72.269
Nilai Wajar Setelah MoS: 36.134
Total Asset = 20,8 triliun rupiah.
Summary : Silahkan simpulkan sendiri apakah murah atau tidak kalau liat penjelasan saya. bahkan saya ada kasih 2 parameter yang biasanya saya tidak masukkan di analisa saya yang kalian sayang banget kalau ga sadar ada hint apa yang saya kasih.
Analisa Profitabilitas
- Gross Margin 2018 : 29,09%
- Net Profit 2018 : 9%
- Pertumbuhan growth sales 2017 ke 2018 = 27,01%
Summary : Tidak ada yang istimew, tapi tidak jelek juga.
Analisa Likuiditas
- DER : 0,49 (termasuk kecil)
- Current Ratio : 1,97
- Quick Ratio : 1,69
Summary : Ratio hutang sangat baik dan aman.
Analisa Arus Kas
- Net Change 2018 : -45 miliar rupiah, arus kas negatif adalah hal negatif. Tapi kalau dilihat alasan kenapanegatif karena pemberian dividen yang cukup besar di tahun 2018
- Arus kas operation : +5,1 triliun rupiah
- Working Capital : +5.4 triliun rupiah
Summary : Perusahaan ini dikategorikan SAFE (AMAN)
Analisa Dividen
Rata2 Dividen 10 tahun : 8,89%
Dividen Payment Streak : 11 tahun berturut – turut.
Summary : Perusahaan ini memiliki imbal balik hasil dividen sangat baik. Bahkan analisa dividen ini akan menjadi salah satu faktor paling penting dalam bedah laporan keuangan ITMG ini.
Kesimpulan
Kesimpulan hasil dari bedah laporan keuangan ITMG yang saya tulis di stockbit adalah: jangan beli saham ini, agar harga sahamnya turun banyak karena saya masih mau terus akumulasi saham ini.
Biar tidak salah menangkap, jelas sekali kalau melihat analisa bedah laporan keuangan ITMG ini maka saya menyarankan untuk berinvestasi di saham ini. Dengan dividen yang begitu menggoda, keuangan perusahaan yang baik, dan harga batu bara yang sudah terlalu murah.
Kenapa justru harga batu bara yang sudah terlalu murah malah jadi bagus? Bukannya ini membuat harga saham perusahaan batu bara menjadi rendah. Jawabannya betul sekali, semakin rendah harga batu bara akan membuat semakin rendah harga saham perusahaan batu bara.
Tetapi harga batu bara sudah mulai mencapai titik terendahnya. Sehingga jika sudah mencapai titik terendahnya, maka harga batu bara akan naik. Jika harga batu bara naik maka harga saham perusahaan batu bara akan naik.
Tanpa harga batu bara naik saja, kita akan mendapatkan peluang balik modal dari 5-6 tahun investasi hanya dari dividen nya saja. Jika melihat harga saham perusahaan ini di bulan maret 2020 dan potensi dividen yang bisa dihasilkan. Apalagi jika nanti harga batu bara melonjak tinggi.
Baca juga : Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Batu Bara
Jadi saya merekomendasikan saham perusahaan ini.
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