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Market Irasional – Kisah Bunga Tulip

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Jurnal Saham
Jurnal Saham

Kisah Investasi Bunga Tulip

Pada abad ke 16 bunga tulip menjadi sebuah investasi yang paling diburu di Eropa, yang menjadi ide dari tulisan kisah investasi bunga tulip ini. Bayangkan saja harga bunga tulip saat itu senilai 1000 guilders per karton. Rata – rata gaji pertahun saat itu adalah 200-400 guilders per tahun. 

Ini berarti 1 karton bunga nilip memiliki nilai 2,5 – 5 tahun gaji pekerja di jaman itu. Sungguh harga yang sangat tinggi untuk sebuah bunga.

Saat itu orang begitu bangga jika bisa memiliki investasi bunga tulip. Orang selalu memberikan rekomendasi bagusnya  berinvestasi di bunga tulip. Harga bunga tulip selalu naik. 

Nb: Saat itu perdagangan bunga tulip dalam bentuk paper, seperti trading commodities di jaman sekarang.

Mari kita pikir secara logika sehat. Apakah wajar bunga tulip dihargai sedemikian tingginya?

Mari kita lihat kelanjutan cerita dari kisah investasi bunga tulip ini.

Kejatuhan Harga Bunga Tulip

Pada tahun 1637 bubble bunga tulip ini akhirnya meledak. Harga investasi bunga tulip mengalami penurunan yang sangat besar.

Sampai pada akhirnya semua investor berebut untuk menjual investasi bunga tulip mereka. Banyak Tulip Mania yang harus gigit jari karena tidak bisa menjual investasinya karena tidak ada market yang mau membeli investasi ini lagi.

Pelajaran Yang Bisa Diambil 

Market sering bersifat tidak rasional. Jika ada sebuah instrumen investasi yang lagi populer maka harga meningkat sangat cepat. Mungkin kita ingat bagaimana cepatnya peningkatan harga bitcoin ataupun batu akik beberapa tahun lalu.

Di jaman sekarang begitu banyaknya perusahaan yang IPO dan mengalami peningkatan harga dalam waktu sangat cepat. Banyak investor yang bisa mendapatkan uang cepat dan lebih banyak lagi investor yang mengalami kerugian besar.

Banyak investor yang kehilangan uang besar karena menikmati keuntungan uang kecil. Saya berikan contoh:

  • Seorang investor membeli saham yang baru IPO dengan modal 2 juta rupiah. Investor itu berhasil mencapai profit 50% dalam waktu singkat. Dia mendapatkan realisasi profit 50%.
  • Ternyata harga saham tersebut terus meningkat tajam. Dia merasa saham ini masih bisa naik lagi. Dan karena dia mengalami keuntungan besar sebelumnya di saham ini, membuat dia percaya diri.
  • Investor ini akhirnya membeli saham tersebut dengan modal 10 juta rupiah.
  • Karena harga saham sudah naik tinggi. Maka wajar harga saham tersebut mengalami penurunan. Harga saham tersebut mengalami penurunan hingga 30% dari harga pembelian kedua investor ini. Investor ini mengalami kerugian 3 juta rupiah.
  • Investor ini akhirnya mengalami total kerugian sebesar 2 juta rupiah dari investasi di saham ini.

Saya begitu kaget ketika ada saham yang populer di forum stockbit. Dimana saham itu memiliki PER diatas 200X. Dan sungguh hebat banyak investor saham yang begitu optimis.

Dari saya memperingati investor yang mau membeli saham tersebut, harga saham tersebut sudah turun hingga 80%.

Kesimpulan

Banyak investor yang begitu mudah terbawa optimismen dan pesimisme pasar. Kita tidak pernah bisa memprediksi bagaimana reaksi pasar. 

Pasar sering menjadi begitu gila dan tidak rasional. Dan ketika itu tidak ada indicator ataupun chart yang dapat mengidentifikasi pergerakan market.

Maka cara paling aman dalam berinvestasi adalah membeli saham yang dijual dibawah harga wajarnya. Itulah kenapa saya menyukai konsep tentang value investing.

Semoga kisah investasi bunga tulip ini dapat memberikan gambaran kepada anda bagaimana market bisa bersifat tidak rasional.

Baca juga: Value Investing – Teknik Mencari Saham Bagus dan Murah

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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