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Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Batu Bara

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Gold Coal Ratio
Gold Coal Ratio

Apa Itu Gold Coal Ratio?

Tidak ada landasan teori resmi terkait teori ini. Penulis yang lagi suka berinvestasi di sektor mining mencoba melakukan riset untuk mengetahui apakah batu bara sudah dihargai mahal atau murah.

Seperti yang kita tahu, perusahaan di sektor mining coal harga saham berkaitan erat dengan harga komoditasnya. Jika harga batu bara naik, maka harga perusahaan di sektor mining coal akan naik. Jika harga batu bara turun, maka harga perusahaan di sektor mining coal akan turun.

Betul sekali harga batu bara ditentukan supply dan demand. Jika supply batu bara lebih besar dari demand maka harga batu bara akan turun. Jika supply batu bara lebih kecil dari demand maka harga batu bara akan naik.

Tapi harga komoditas tidak bisa terus turun hingga tidak ada batas bawah. Karena semua perusahaan batu bara akan menjual untuk meraih profit. Maka batas bawah penurunan harga batu bara adalah COGS + toleransi profit margin dari perusahaan paling efektif.

Sayangnya kita tidak tahu perusahaan batu bara apa paling efektif di seluruh dunia. Untuk itu saya melakukan riset kecil untuk mengetahui apakah batu bara sudah mahal atau belum yang saya sebut dengan Gold Coal Ratio.

Logika Dibalik Pembuatan Gold Coal Ratio

Saya tertarik dengan pemikiran dari Peter Schiff dan konsep Dow Gold Ratio nya. Yaitu mengukur tinggi rendahnya bursa saham menggunakan emas sebagai tolak ukurnya.

Baca juga: Dow Gold Ratio – Alat Deteksi Krisis Ekonomi Dunia

Sehingga saya menggunakan logika yang sama, yaitu menggunakan emas sebagai alat mengukur apakah harga batu bara sudah terlalu tinggi atau rendah. Parameter ini yang saya sebut sebagai Gold Coal Ratio.

Riset Dibalik Gold Coal Ratio

Salah satu saham tambang yang lagi saya koleksi saat ini adalah ITMG. Maka ITMG akan saya gunakan sebagai perusahaan untuk dijadikan bahan penelitian ini.

Saya membuat analisa data dengan mencari perbandingan harga saham ITMG, harga coal dan gold. Sayangnya saya cuma bisa mendapatkan data dari tahun 2008 – 2019. Cuma data selama 12 tahun yang bisa saya gunakan untuk melakukan riset ini.

ITMG – GOLD – COAL COMPARISON DATA

Dalam sejarah harga terendah ITMG bernilai 4.675 per lembar saham dari data yang saya bisa dapatkan (jan 2008 – Des 2019), yaitu terjadi pada Februari 2016.

Dimana sebelumnya harga saham ITMG pernah di puncaknya pada Januari 2011 di harga 57.950 per lembar saham.

Kalau saya lihat dari 2008 hingga 2019 jumlah saham beredar ITMG tidak berubah, tetap selalu di 1,13 Miliar lembar saham. Hal ini mempermudah saya dalam melakukan analisa.

Relevansi Harga Tertinggi / Terendah ITMG terhadap Gold Coal Ratio

Pada januari 2011
Harga tertinggi ITMG di harga : 57.950 rupiah
Harga terendah batu bara : 130,35 dollar
Harga terendah gold : 1308,38 dollar
Sehingga Gold-Coal Ratio adalah di 10X (1 emas bisa beli 10 batu bara).

Berapa harga terendah saham ITMG?
yaitu di 4.675 terjadi pada Februari 2016, mari kita liat data Februari 2016.

Pada Februari 2016
Harga terendah ITMG di harga : 4.675 rupiah
Harga terendah batu bara : 50,45 dollar
Harga terendah gold : 1.116 dollar
Sehingga Gold-Coal Ratio ada di 22x (1 emas bisa beli 22 batu bara)

Desember 2019 (ketika tulisan ini dibuat pertama kali di stockbit)
Harga terendah ITMG di harga : 10.050 
Harga terendah batu bara : 66,4
Harga terendah gold : 1454
Gold-Coal Ratio : ada di 22X
Wah mulai menarik bisa mirip antara December 2019 dengan Februari 2016.

Mari kita bedah lebih dalam lagi, kapan Gold Coal Ratio tertinggi dan terendah dari data yang saya bisa dapatkan.

Gold-Coal Ratio tertinggi ada di April 2016 dengan ratio 24X, dimana ITMG harga terendah 6.525

Gold-Coal Ratio terendah ada di januari 2011 yang sudah saya ulas di atas, yaitu ratio 10X dengan harga tertinggi 57.950

Kesimpulan

Kalau saya lihat parameter ini memang memiliki irisan dengan harga batu bara, walaupun belum tentu harga saham ITMG di ratio 24X lebih rendah dari 22X. tapi harga saham ITMG di ratio 20X pasti lebih rendah dibanding harga saham ITMG di ratio 10X.

December 2019 ini memiliki kesamaan dengan Februari 2016 dimana harga saham turun tajam. Mari kita belajar berapa lama resesi ITMG terjadi sejak februari 2016 tersebut. 

Februari 2018 Gold-Coal Ratio 12X dengan harga tertinggi di 32.200 (pastilah kebetulan ga terlalu jauh dengan nilai wajar yang saya pernah publish di bedah LK ITMG saya di 36134 link: https://stockbit.com/#/post/3297286)

Baca juga: Bedah Laporan Keuangan ITMG

Jarak antara februari 2016 (harga ITMG di titik terendah) dengan Februari 2018 (harga ITMG di titik tertinggi) adalah 2 tahun.

Apakah ini artinya Februari 2021 (2 tahun dari sekarang) saham ITMG akan kembali mencetak harga tertinggi dalam 1 proses cylical nya? Jujur saya tidak tahu.

Mari kita lihat apakah benar di Februari 2021 ITMG akan menyentuh harga tertinggi di kisaran diatas 30rb per lembar saham sesuai dengan tulisan ini.

Jika benar, bisa jadi ini bisa menjadi teori baru yang kebetulan ditemukan.

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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