Bedah Laporan Keuangan CCSI
Bedah laporan keuangan CCSI ini diposting pada tanggal 12 Desember 2019 di forum stockbit
Link : https://stockbit.com/#/post/3299877
Karena perusahaan ini mempunyai fan base yang cukup loyal di forum stockbit, yang disebut KEP group. Maka saya coba iseng – iseng di tengah kesuntukan kerja, untuk membedah LK perusahaan ini.
Tapi saya menghadapi kesulitan kekurangan data, karena perusahaan ini tampaknya baru IPO. Dan saya juga tidak mau membuang waktu terlalu banyak untuk analisa perusahaan ini karena websitenya kurang enak untuk dilihat.
Tapi hasilnya cukuplah diluar perkiraan saya, sungguh diluar perkiraan saya.
Analisa Valuasi
- Karena saya tidak bisa mendapatkan data keuangan 2018, maka saya cuma bisa menggunakan informasi keuangan 2019 sampai Q3. Dengan EPS disetahunkan 56 untuk tahun 2019.
- Saya menggunakan EPS growth 15% (saya pakai angka standard saya, karena saya tidak bisa mendapatkan data EPS growth untuk perusahaan ini). Maka valuasi saham ini bernilai 1206. Dan setelah diberikan MoS 50% maka nilai wajar saham ini 602.
Summary: Hasil dari analisa valuasi perusahaan ini cukup menarik. Kita bisa lihat dari bedah laporan keuangan bahwa harga saat ini masih jauh dibawah nilai wajar dari perusahaan CCSI ini.
Analisa Profitabilitas
- ROA 12,29% & ROE 16,98%.
- Gross margin 27,59%
- Operating margin 19,54%
- Net margin 13,79%
Summary: Analisa profitabilitas perusahaan ini tidak istimewa, tapi tidak jelek. Saya rasa perusahaan ini memiliki kemampuan menghasilkan profitabilitas yang cukup baik. Apalagi dari informasi yang saya dapatkan net income 2019 mengalami peningkatan diatas 40% dari net income 2018. Sesuatu yang baik tentunya.
Analisa Likuiditas
- DER = 0,48
- Current Ratio = 2,98
- Quick Ratio = 1,78
Summary: Analisa likuiditas perusahaan ini juga terbilang baik.
Analisa Arus Kas
- Net change -13 miliar rupiah.
- Cashflow operation -6 miliar rupiah.
- Yang menjadi tanda tanya besar sebenarnya adalah adanya transaksi pembayaran kepada direksi sebesar 10 miliar yang menyebabkan cashflow operation -6 miliar.
Summary: Analisa arus kas menjadi highlight penting bagi saya. Dimana saya tidak menyukai perusahaan yang memiliki arus kas negatif apalagi cashflow operation negatif. Ditambah keanehan transaksi pembayaran kepada direksi sebesar 10 miliar rupiah. Hal yang menjadi pertanyaan bagi saya dan butuh dicari informasi detail lebih lanjut.
- Working capital sebenarnya bagus, tetapi karena operating cash flow negatif adalah sesuatu yang berbahaya maka perusahaan ini dikategorikan sebagai potential cash burner.
Analisa Asset
Ketika saya update tulisan ini di website, perusahaan ini memiliki data sebagai berikut:
- Market Cap : 181 miliar rupiah.
- Berdasarkan laporan keuangan Q3 2019, perusahaan ini memiliki saldo cash 70 miliar rupiah.
- Nilai aset tetap 161 miliar rupiah.
- Hutang jangka pendek 98 miliar rupiah.
- Hutang janga panjang 50 miliar rupiah.
- Artinya kalau kita lihat dari bedah laporan keuangan di sisi balance sheet perusahaan CCSI ini, kita melihat sesuatu yang menarik. Total hutang perusahaan ini senilai 148 miliar rupiah. Dibawah nilai aset tetapnya yang bernilai 161 miliar rupiah.
- Jika melihat data aset tetap yang dikurangi dengan total hutang maka kita mendapatkan saldo positif senilai 13 miliar rupiah. Dan kita menemukan bahwa perusahaan memiliki cash senilai 70 miliar rupiah. Ini berarti kita mendapatkan gratisan sebesar 83 miliar rupiah.
- Aset gratis senilai 83 miliar rupiah, ini senilai dengan hampir 50% dari market cap saat ini. Ini sebuah persentase gratisan yang besar dan sangat menarik.
Kesimpulan
Kesimpulan yang bisa saya berikan untuk bedah laporan keuangan CCSI adalah:
- Data yang bisa digunakan untuk melakukan analisa perusahaan ini masih kurang banyak untuk bisa lebih memahami perusahaan ini.
- Cashflow negatif dan pembayaran kepada direksi sebesar 10 miliar rupiah tetap menjadi pertanyaan dan perhatian saya bagi perusahaan ini.
- Tapi di satu sisi, perusahaan ini memiliki kemampuan menghasilkan keuntungan yang cukup baik dan persentase aset gratisan yang cukup besar. Dan memiliki valuasi yang jauh dibawah nilai wajar.
Rekomendasi: Ada baiknya menunggu annual report 2019 diterbitkan terlebih dahulu. Jika sudah tidak melihat permasalahan di dalam analisa arus kas, mendapat penjelasan yang masuk akal tentang apa itu pembayaran kepada direksi, apalagi dengan perusahaan berani memberikan dividen. Maka saya merekomendasikan untuk berinvestasi di CCSI ini dengan syarat semua hal yang menjadi highlight saya terpenuhi.
NB: Jika tidak memberikan dividen di tahun ini, saya tetap memandang ini investasi yang menarik jika poin – poin lain terpenuhi.
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Semoga investasi di CCSI nya multi bagger ya
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