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Historical PER IHSG – Mengukur Mahal Murah IHSG

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Apa Itu PER IHSG?

PER (Price to Earning Ratio) adalah ratio yang sering digunakan untuk melihat secara sekilas apakah perusahaan memiliki valuasi yang mahal atau murah. Ratio ini berguna untuk melihat apakah IHSG sedang memiliki valuasi yang mahal atau murah berdasarkan sejarah.

Terima kasih untuk fitur Fundachart dari stockbit yang membantu saya untuk mengolah data ini.

Sebagai gambaran jika perusahaan memiliki harga saham saat ini sekitar 1000 per lembar saham dan perusahaan memiliki laba per lembar saham (earning per share/EPS) 100, maka PER nya adalah 10X. Jika beli harga saham tersebutsaat ini, maka kita berharap mendapatkan return 10% dari laba perusahaan selama 10 tahun.

PER dari perusahaan – perusahaan di bursa IHSG ini dihitung rata – rata menjadi PER dari IHSG ini.

Hasil Riset – Data Historis

Mari kita lihat historical data dari 10 tahun terakhir (data maximum yang saya bisa dapatkan dari fundachart stockbit).

Historical PER IHSG
  • Selama 10 tahun, PER terendah IHSG ada di 13 juni 2010 sebesar 11.98X.
  • IHSG berlangsung naik hingga 7 April 2015 mencapai 25.15X.
  • Setelah itu IHSG bergerak turun, hingga 25 Agustus 2015 mencapai 20.56X.
  • IHSG mengalami rebound hingga di 20 July 2016 mencapai 30.44X.
  • 30.44X adalah rekor tertinggi dalam 10 tahun terakhir ini dan saya rasa tertinggi hingga hari ini.
  • Setelah itu ratio ini terus mengalami penurunan hingga 31 maret 2017 di 23.24X.
  • Berhasil rebound kecil pada 23 Juni 2018 hingga mencapai 25.89X.
  • Dan seperti yang kita ketahui di tahun 2018 bukan masa indah untuk bursa kita. IHSG merosot hingga 14 November 2018 di titik 18.45X
  • IHSG berlangsung rebound hingga kenaikan di 27 December 2019 kemarin berada di titik 22.02X. Setelah itu mengalami penurunan karena wabah virus corona
  • Ketika tulisan ini dibuat IHSG berada di PER 18.22X, yang uniknya lebih kecil dari tanggal 14 November. Yang ketika itu di kisaran 18.45X.

Kesimpulan

Apa yang bisa kita tarik kesimpulan dari data PER IHSG ini? Menurut saya IHSG saat ini memiliki PER yang rendah. Yang berarti IHSG memiliki valuasi yang murah. Tentu merupakan suatu yang wajar, karena IHSG mengalami kejatuhan dalam setelah krisis virus corona ini.

Tapi tidak bisa kita pungkiri IHSG saat ini murah dan merupakan peluang yang baik untuk kita berinvestasi di pasar modal kita.

Tapi hati – hati jika IHSG terlalu naik cepat hingga nanti tiba – tiba IHSG di kisaran 30.44X. Karena bisa jadi itu bukan pertanda baik karena bisa jadi di titik itu market merasa IHSG sudah terlalu tinggi.

PER IHSG 30X, yang berarti PER perusahaan di indonesia rata – rata di 30X. Yang berarti memang sudah terlalu tinggi.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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