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Apakah Ada Pengaruh Kepemilikan Saham Publik Terhadap Kinerja Saham?

Pengaruh Kepemilikan Saham Publik
Pengaruh Kepemilikan Saham Publik

Banyak yang bertanya sebenarnya kepemilikan saham publik besar itu apakah ini pertanda saham ini akan memiliki kinerja  yang baik atau tidak?

Saya selalu mencoba menerangkan jika anda sebagai pengusaha memiliki bisnis yang menguntungkan tapi anda butuh tambahan modal, maka sah-sah saja jika kita menjual sebagian kepemilikan saham kita kepada investor lain. Tapi umumnya kita sebagai pengusaha akan mau memiliki porsi kepemilikan mayoritas agar kita tetap memegang kuasa dalam pengambilan keputusan di perusahaan. Logikanya, semakin besar kepemilikan saham kita maka jumlah pembagian keuntungan (dividen) yang kita dapatkan juga semakin besar. Jika harga sahamnya naik, maka capital gain yang kita dapatkan juga bertambah besar.

Tapi apa yang terjadi, jika saya sebagai pemilik perusahaan, malah menjual sebagian besar saham saya ke orang lain? Secara logika, maka si pengusaha ini memandang bisnisnya tidak terlalu menarik lagi. Logika yang masuk akal bukan untuk kita berhati-hati terhadap perusahaan dengan kepemilikan saham publik yang besar.

Uniknya di perusahaan publik ini, bahkan ada perusahaan yang kepemilikan saham publik diatas 95%. Sebut saja $PADI dengan 97.09% kepemilikan publik,

Kepemilikan Saham Publik PADI
Kepemilikan Saham Publik PADI

Beberapa saham lain yang kepemilikan saham publik begitu luar biasa:

  • POOL : 96%
  • ELTY : 95%
  • SIMA : 94%
  • MYRX : 94%

Apa persamaan dari 5 saham tersebut? Lima-limanya berharga 50 rupiah perlembar saham, bahkan tiga diantaranya kena suspend seperti POOL, SIMA, dan MYRX.

Fakta Menarik Dari Kepemilikan Saham Publik Besar

Mari ucapkan terima kasih untuk Kefas Evander yang harusnya member di forum stockbit juga dengan ID yang saya tidak tahu apa.

Didalam link youtube dengan judul “Saham MDLN disuspend, saya jadi blacklist saham-saham ini”. Kefas Evander memberikan data riset yang diolah dan bisa kita download secara gratis.

Saya lampirkan rangkuman data dari file excel yang dibuat oleh beliau. Kita mendapatkan total  60 saham di IHSG dengan kepemilikan >= 50%.

Summary Kepemilikan Saham Publik >50%
Summary Kepemilikan Saham Publik >50%

Data rangkumannya, bisa lihat di gambar diatas, tapi saya coba tambahkan beberapa bumbu biar lebih sedap lagi. Mari kita lihat relasi antar besarnya kepemilikan terhadap harga terendah suatu saham yang bisa didapatkan yaitu harga 50.

  • Kepemilikan >=90% ada 5 saham –> 100% harga saham 50 rupiah
  • Kepemilikan >= 80% ada 5 saham –> 80% harga saham 50 rupiah, cuma LCGP yang tidak masuk ke 50 rupiah tetapi perusahaan ini saat ini statusnya suspended.
  • Kepemilikan >=70% ada 11 saham. –> 36% harga saham 50 rupiah, dengan 2 perusahaan kena suspended yaitu TARA dan MABA.
  • Kepemilikan >=60% ada 16 saham –> 50% harga saham 50 rupiah (INPC kemarin ada di 50 rupiah jadi sedikit berbeda dengan excel karena di excel harga masih 51 rupiah). Dengan 4 perusahaan kena suspended yaitu ARMY, SUGI, MDLN dan TRAM.
  • Kepemilikan >=50% ada 23 saham. –> 47% harga saham 50 rupiah. Dengan 3 perusahaan kena status suspended yaitu HOME, MGNA dan MITI.

Mari Belajar Dari Perusahaan Bagus

Di tulisan saya sebelumnya saya menganjurkan jika anda tidak percaya diri untuk belajar value investing dan mau memiliki return investasi saham yang baik, maka berinvestasilah jangka panjang pada perusahaan bagus. Walau investasi anda tetap bisa turun mengerikan dalam jangka pendek atau menengah, tapi umumnya anda tidak akan kecewa dalam jangka panjang. Bahkan anda dapat memiliki return yang bisa mengalahkan trader dengan level GODLIKE sekalipun dengan cara simpel itu.

Baca juga: Tips Menghasilkan Return Lebih Besar dari Game Clash of Clans

Apa kategori perusahaan bagus?

  • Penjualan konsisten meningkat (pengecualian untuk beberapa force majeure, kalau tahun ini saya rasa 80% bisnis akan drop karena wabah covid-19).
  • Laba perusahaan konsisten meningkat (pengecualian untuk beberapa force majeure, kalau tahun ini saya rasa 80% bisnis akan drop karena wabah covid-19).
  • Ratio hutang yang baik.
  • Cashflow yang baik.

Saya rasa 4 kriteria itu terpenting. Silahkan jika ada yang mau menambahkan dengan konsisten membagi dividen, karena itu tidak salah walau menurut saya tidak selalu bisa dijadikan patokan. Karena kalau begitu maka Berskhire Hatthaway tidak masuk kriteria perusahaan bagus karena pelit bagi dividen.

Mari kita lihat beberapa contoh perusahaan besar yang bisa kita kategorikan perusahaan bagus ini. Kita akan melihat berapa besar kepemilikan saham publiknya:

  • BBCA –> Kepemilikan publik 45.06%
  • BBRI –> kepemilikan publik 43.25%
  • ICBP –> kepemilikan publik 19.47%
  • HMSP –> Kepemiliikan publik 7.5%
  • SIDO –> Kepemilikan publik 18.2%
  • ULTJ –> Kepemilikan publik 32.29%
  • ITMG –>  Kepemilikan publik 31.91%, bahkan saham cyiical yang tingkat risiko besar juga kepemilikan publik tidak besar.
  • PTBA –> Kepemilikan publik 31.15%, bahkan saham cyclical yang tingkat risiko besar juga kepemilikan publik tidak besar.

Kesimpulan

Kalau kalian membuat perusahaan bersama rekan kalian, suka ada pasal jika ada satu pihak ingin menjual sahamnya maka harus ditawarkan kepada pihak lainnya terlebih dahulu.

Jika saya dan anda membangun perusahaan baru. Kita sama-sama tahu perusahaan ini bagus. Anggaplah saya membutuhkan sejumlah uang kas untuk kebutuhan darurat sehingga saya mau menjual saham saya. Apakah anda tidak mau membeli saham saya jika tahu perusahaan ini bagus?

Bagaimana anda tahu bahwa perusahaan ini bagus? Karena anda terlibat aktif di perusahaan tersebut. Kalau anda percaya bahwa itu perusahaan bagus, maka logikanya anda pasti beli saham saya. Tapi jika anda tahu bahwa perusahaan itu tidak bagus maka anda tidak berminat menambah kepemilikan saham anda.

Tapi ada kasus perusahaan itu labanya naik konsisten terus dan pihak lainnya tidak mau membeli sahamnya. Kenapa bisa begitu? bisa jadi saya meminta harga terlalu tinggi untuk saham yang saya tawarkan kepada anda. Sehingga anda tidak berminat untuk membelinya.

Akhirnya saham itu dibeli orang lain sesuai harga yang saya minta yg ditawarkan mungkin dengan harga kemahalan tersebut.

Secara logika manusia, tentu jika saya tahu perusahaan ini bagus maka saya tidak mau menghilangkan kekuasaan saya di perusahaan bagus tersebut sehingga saya seharusnya hanya menjual maksimal 49% saham perusahaan saya. Sehingga posisi  saya sebagai pengambil keputusan dan kebijakan perusahaan tidak terganggu.

Yang sungguh ironis dari 60 saham yang masuk kedalam list saham dengan kepemilikan >=50% ini hanya 1 saham yaitu LPPF yang memiliki ROA diatas 10%, ini berarti 1.6% peluang kita menemukan saham yang memiliki kepemilikan saham publik besar dapat menghasilkan ROA cukup baik ini.

Bahkan hanya 16 perusahaan  yang bisa menghasilkan ROA positif. Ini berarti peluang kita cuma 26.7% menemukan perusahaan yang bisa menghasilkan ROA positif di saham dengan kepemilikan publik yang besar. Dimana dari 16 perusahaan ini ada 4 perusahaan yang kena status suspended, yaitu: RIMO, ARMY, MDLN dan TRAM.

Sebagai kesimpulan, saya satu pendapat dengan Kefas Evander untuk tidak menyarankan berinvestasi pada perusahaan dengan kepemilikan saham publik yang besar dengan berbagai data ataupun penjelasan yang sudah dijabarkan di tulisan ini.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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