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Pentingnya Alokasi Aset Untuk Pensiun

Pentingnya alokasi aset untuk persiapan pensiun
Pentingnya alokasi aset untuk persiapan pensiun

Salah satu topik yang lagi saya fokus untuk jelaskan akhir-akhir ini adalah bagaimana mempersiapkan pensiun kita. Semua investor ternama dunia memberikan satu tips yang bernama ALOKASI ASET.

Pengukuran kinerja seorang investor biasanya diukur oleh kinerja average return pertahun. Tapi ironisnya saya akan memberikan dua perbandingan investor yang memiliki average return yang sama persis tetapi memiliki masa pensiun yang jauh berbeda.

Kisah Tim dan Tom, senasib tapi tidak sepenanggungan

Mohon diingat ini adalah simulasi untuk menjelaskan pentingnya alokasi aset, sehingga tolong abaikan kenapa di tahun yang sama bisa memiliki return yang berbeda.

Tom dan Tim sama-sama investor yang berhasil mengumpulkan dana pensiun 5 Miliar rupiah. Karena sudah pensiun mereka berdua sudah tidak memiliki pemasukan. Mereka hanya bisa bertahan hidup dengan uang pensiun dan hasil investasi mereka.

Mereka berdua pensiun di umur 65 tahun dan  bertahan hidup sampai umur 82 tahun (17 tahun setelah pensiun).

Untuk biaya hidup, Tim dan Tom mengambil 5% dari total dana pensiun awal untuk  biaya hidup tiap tahunnya. Dan tentu karena adanya inflasi, setiap tahun mereka berdua menambahkan 3% biaya hidup dari tahun sebelumnya.

Mereka berdua sama-sama memiliki average return 9.5% pertahun dari imbal hasil investasi mereka selama masa pensiun.

Yang menjadi perbedaan adalah kondisi tahun mereka mengalami pensiun. Tim pensiun di saat yang tidak tepat, dimana ketika Tim pensiun kondisi market mengalami crash (bayangkan Tim pensiun di tahun 2020).

Tom pensiun di momen market dalam keadaan normal. Dimana kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomi berjalan dengan baik.

Simulasi Kondisi Pensiun Tim dan Tom

Simulasi Pensiun dan pentingnya alokasi aset
Simulasi Pensiun dan pentingnya alokasi aset

Silahkan lihat simulasi Tim dan Tom diatas.

  • Tim mengalami kondisi pensiun bertepatan dengan market terjadi crash, sehingga Tim harus melihat hilangnya aset investasi dia.
  • Biaya hidup tidak mengenal kondisi investasi anda. Biaya hidup akan terus meningkat. membuat kekayaan Tim terus terkikis di tahun-tahun awal.
  • Berikutnya pasar pulih dan investasi Tim mengalami peningkatan. Hingga akhirnya rata-rata return tahunan Tim sebesar 9.5%. Tetapi ironis ketika berumur 82 tahun, semua uang Tim habis bahkan tidak cukup untu biaya hidupnya.
  • Tom dengan total dana pensiun sama persis dengan Tim mengalami kondisi pensiun di situasi market yang normal, di periode awal pensiunnya dana Tom mengalami peningkatan investasi.
  • Biaya hidup Tom juga sama persis dengan biaya hidup Tim.
  • Di akhir-akhir masa hidupnya, Tom mengalami minus yang cukup besar secara berurutan. Hingga akhirnya rata-rata return tahunan Tom juga sebesar 9.5%
  • Pada akhir usianya diumur 82 tahun, Tom masih memiliki kekayaan sebesar lebih dari 13 miliar untuk diwariskan.
  • Saya berikan satu rahasia dari simulasi ini, saya cuma membalik persentase return Tom dan Tim. Ini kenapa average return mereka persis sama.
  • Tetapi walaupun average return sama, kita melihat perbedaan nasib yang begitu jauh dari Tim dan Tom ini.

Kita Tidak Bisa Memprediksi Masa Depan

Begitu banyak ahli yang membuat banyak prediksi tentang apa yang akan terjadi di masa depan. Mereka akhirnya menyombongkan keakuratan akurasinya ketika itu terjadi. Jika anda mau menjadi ahli seperti itu saya berikan tips nya:

  • Buat prediksi sebanyak mungkin
  • Buat prediksi yang mengambang dimana prediksi yang satu mengatakan market akan naik, prediksi berikutnya membuat kesimpulan sebaliknya secara mengambang.

Jadi apapun kondisi market dimasa depan, prediksi anda pasti tepat. Selamat anda sudah berhasil menjadi ahli yang bisa membuat prediksi dengan tepat.

Ironisnya ahli yang “sering” membuat prediksi tepat ini tidak bisa membuat prediksi untuk masa depannya. Mungkin average return mereka benar-benar bagus 15% tapi ironisnya uang mereka tidak bertambah tapi malah berkurang seperti halnya Tim. Tidak heran mereka masih sibuk berjualan premium membership dengan teknik prediksi diatas.

Coba kalian lihat kembali di table, ketika Tim berumur 76 tahun. Tim mengalami kerugian sebesar 1.54%. Uang Tim saat itu masih tersisa 1.3 miliar rupiah. Umur 77 tahun, investasi Tim tumbuh luar biasa yaitu profit sebesar 34.11%. Tetapi ironisnya uang Tim tinggal 1.2 miliar rupiah. Uang Tim berkurang walau investasinya meningkat pesat.

Alasannya sederhana karena imbal hasil investasinya tidak sebesar biaya hidup Tim. Tapi apa daya kita ketika sudah pensiun, ketika harga kebutuhan hidup kita meningkat maka biaya hidup kita otomatis meningkat.

Minus dalam investasi adalah sesuatu yang menyeramkan. Average return tahunan bisa menimbulkan sebuah ilusi seakan – akan untung tapi kekayaan kita berkurang. Inilah kenapa semua investor bijak menyarankan untuk melakukan Alokasi Aset.

Seorang ahli portofolio bernama David Swensen mengatakan tidak ada makan siang gratis di dunia investasi, kecuali ALOKASI ASET.

Jadi kalau anda mau mempersiapkan pensiun anda dengan aman, maka anda harus belajar ALOKASI ASET dengan BENAR. Untuk itu mari kita belajar ilmu alokasi aset dari ahlinya yaitu Ray Dalio.

Baca juga : Aplikasi Portofolio 4 Musim Ray Dalio di IHSG

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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