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Riset Relevansi Berita Baik / Buruk IHSG Di Bulan Agustus

Riset Berita Baik Buruk Terhadap Pergerakan IHSG Bulan Agustus
Riset Berita Baik Buruk Terhadap Pergerakan IHSG Bulan Agustus

Kali ini saya akan membuat riset pergerakan IHSG di bulan Agustus. Sebelumnya saya ada membuat beberapa tulisan baik di web ini ataupun tulisan di stockbit terkait penurunan IHSG di bulan Agustus.

Hal ini didasari atas riset yang saya lakukan ketika pembuatan artikel tentang periode baik investor dan periode baik trader.

Baca juga : Periode Baik Investor VS Periode Baik Trader

Bulan-Baik-Investor-Trader
Bulan-Baik-Investor-Trader

Jika mengacu pada riset dari data IHSG yang dilakukan 30 tahun terakhir, maka kita akan melihat bahwa bulan agustus, secara data historis IHSG akan mengalami penurunan -3.3% dengan probabilitas 63% IHSG akan turun.

Pada bulan september, IHSG secara historical masih akan turun dengan penurunan average -1.23% dengan probabilitas 60% IHSG akan turun.

Probabilitas 60% ini termasuk persentase yang besar, sehingga ini perlu menjadi perhatian.

Kumpulan Artikel Yang Mengingatkan Penurunan IHSG di Bulan Agustus Nanti

Ini kenapa ketika bulan may ramai investor sounding kalimat Sell in May and Go Away saya memiliki pandangan yang berbeda dengan ketakutan yang tersebar saat itu. Patokan saya hanyalah data historis.

Baca juga: Mari bahas mitos Sell in May and Go Away

Saat itu saya menekankan untuk jangan takut membeli di bulan may tapi pastikan anda tetap memiliki dry powder yang cukup untuk berbelanja saham bagus yang kemungkinan akan diberikan harga murah mulai bulan Agustus nanti.

Awal may IHSG berada di level hampir 4.600 dan akhir July IHSG berada di level diatas 5.100. Ini berarti justru kenaikan sebesar 10.8% dari bulan May ke bulan July pada tahun 2020 ini.

Di tengah euforia uptrend IHSG yang menyenangkan ini saya ada membuat dua tulisan di forum stockbit yang mencoba mengingatkan untuk berhati-hati untuk teman-teman yang suka trading ketika memasuki bulan Agustus yang akan menjadi medan pertempuran yang berat. Saya mencatat ada 3 postingan yang saya buat untuk mengingatkan perihal prediksi saya terkait penurunan IHSG di bulan Agustus nanti yang tidak saya muat di blog ini.

Mari Kita Lakukan Riset

Apakah akhir Agustus IHSG pasti jatuh? saya tentu tidak bisa menjaminnya. Tapi saya tidak suka melakukan analisa menjelaskan sesuatu yang sudah terjadi. Saya lebih tertantang untuk melakukan analisa untuk sesuatu yang akan terjadi untuk melakukan pengecekan apakah riset yang dilakukan ini valid atau tidak.

Untuk riset ini mari kita lakukan bersama-sama. Saya tidak melakukan prediksi menebak harga saham tertentu naik atau turun di bulan Agustus. Karena walau IHSG turun bisa jadi beberapa saham naik. Saya hanya melakukan prediksi untuk IHSG saja.

Untuk IHSG naik biasanya akan diiringi dengan berita positif seputar IHSG. Sehingga untuk IHSG turun biasanya akan diiringi dengan berita negatif seputar IHSG. Berita itu bisa muncul sebelum ataupun sesudah market bereaksi.

Kamis kemarin, 30 July 2020 adalah hari terakhir perdagangan bulan July 2020 karena hari jumat ini adalah tanggal merah hari raya Idul Adha.

Saya mengucapkan Selamat Hari Raya Idul Adha bagi teman – teman yang merayakan.

Jadi saya mau mencoba melihat berita apa yang mengiringi bursa IHSG kita dan bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap pergerakan bursa kita.

Agar lebih terstandarisasi mari kita ambil dari satu sumber berita, sejak kontan banyak konten yang dijadikan berbayar. Saya saat ini lebih suka membaca CNBCIndonesia.

30 July 2020

cnbcindonesia.com - 30 July 2020 19:58
cnbcindonesia.com – 30 July 2020 19:58

Link : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20200730195512-4-176640/resesi-ekonomi-as-anjlok-329-di-kuartal-ii-2020

Jam : 19:58

Sentimen : Negatif

Perubahan IHSG : Tidak ada – Market Libur

31 July 2020

CNBCIndonesia.com, 31 July 2020
CNBCIndonesia.com, 31 July 2020

Link : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20200731094421-17-176673/kabar-baik-dari-as-china-ihsg-kalo-tidak-libur-bisa-hijau#

Jam : 10:50

Sentimen : Positif

Perubahan IHSG : Tidak ada – Market Libur

1 Agustus 2020

CNBCIndonesia 1 Agustus 2020 : IHSG naik 5% bulan July 2020
CNBCIndonesia 1 Agustus 2020 : IHSG naik 5% bulan July 2020

Link : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20200801113856-17-176828/ihsg-naik-hampir-5-sepanjang-juli-biasa-atau-luar-biasa

Jam : 14:01

Sentimen : Positif

Perubahan IHSG : Tidak ada – Market Libur

2 Agustus 2020

CNBCIndonesia 2 Agustus 2020
CNBCIndonesia 2 Agustus 2020

Link : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20200802115802-17-176915/sentimen-pasar-pekan-depan-pelototi-data-ekonomi-ri

Jam : 13:30

Sentimen : Negatif

Perubahan IHSG : Tidak ada – Market Libur

3 Agustus 2020

CNBCIndonesia 3 Agustus 2020
CNBCIndonesia 3 Agustus 2020

Link : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20200802203750-17-176963/siap-ngacir-ini-dia-10-saham-yang-diborong-asing-sepekan

Jam : 06:05

Sentimen : Positif

Perubahan IHSG : -2.57%

4 Agustus 2020 

CNBCIndonesia 4 Agustus 2020
CNBCIndonesia 4 Agustus 2020

Link : https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20200803193119-17-177198/catat-8-faktor-ini-bikin-asing-kabur-rp-14-t-ihsg-rontok

Jam : 05:35

Sentimen : Negatif

Perubahan IHSG : +1.37%

To Be Continued (akan diupdate rutin tiap malam sampai 31 Agustus 2020)

Total berita baik : 3 (50%)

Total berita buruk : 3 (50%)

(data per 4 Agustus 2020 jam 18:48)

Follow me on:

What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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