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Periode Baik Investor VS Periode Baik Trader

diKapan periode baik untuk investor?

Ketika mendekati bulan desember, banyak orang bertanya pada saya apakah sekarang waktu yang tepat untuk berinvestasi saham karena Santa Claus Rally?

Ketika mendekati bulan januari, banyak orang bertanya apakah akan sekarang waktu yang tepat untuk berinvestasi saham karena januari effect?

Banyak investor yang berinnvestasi dengan melihat periode bulan. Bahkan ada istilah yang terkenal dalam dunia investasi saham. “Buy in November, Sell in May“.

Tentu sebagai investor kita tidak boleh berinvestasi hanya melihat periode bulan. Tapi kapanpun ketika menemukan saham perusahaan bagus dan dijual murah kita bisa beli walaupun itu di bulan Juni. Dan jangan memaksakan untuk membeli saham yang tidak murah walaupun itu di bulan Desember.

Tapi tidak dipungkiri istilah Buy in November, Sell in May muncul karena perilaku pasar. Jadi mari kita coba pelajari periode baik investor dan periode baik trader menurut data historis.

Data Historis Kinerja Pasar Tiap Periode Bulan

Seorang trader akan suka berinvestasi ketika market lagi fase uptrend, sehingga dia bisa taking profit dalam jangka waktu relatif singkat. Berbeda dengan investor jangka panjang, mereka lebih suka berinvestasi ketika market sedang downtrend, karena mereka bisa membeli dengan harga diskon.

Untuk itu saya coba melakukan riset, dimana saya mengolah data IHSG sejak April 1990 (data maksimal yang bisa saya download) hingga December 2019.

Kalau kita lihat dari data diatas maka bulan terbaik untuk para trader adalah Desember & Januari karena return IHSG paling besar selama 29 tahun terakhir.

Kalau kita liat dari data diatas maka bulan terbaik untuk para investor adalah memasuki bulan Agustus dimana kemungkinan besar IHSG jatuh paling dalam dan persentase IHSG naik sangatlah rendah.

Sehingga santa claus rally ataupun january effect memang mitos yang sebenarnya nyata, jika kita melihat dari data historical tersebut.

April adalah potensi kenaikan yang tinggi berikutnya, dikarenakan “euforia” ditunggunya laporan tahunan perusahaan dirilis. Tetapi karena laporan tahunan bisa negatif dan positif sebenarnya ini adalah periode yang sudah harus mulai berhati – hati.

Ada baiknya untuk para trader mulai mengurangi intensitas trading di bulan April, karena setelah bulan April – November persentase kenaikan IHSG berubah menjadi jelek secara sejarah.

Untuk bulan Agustus sendiri IHSG mengalami penurunan paling besar, di saat ini tampaknya momen para investor mulai menunggu dan mencari saham bagus yang lagi terdiskon. Tetapi ada baiknya tidak masuk banyak dan mulai mencicil terlebih dahulu. Ada baiknya membaca teknik 1-2-3-5 yang saya jelaskan di tulisan saya yang lain yang berjudul “Value Investing – Mencari Saham Bagus dan Murah”

Baca juga: Value Investing – Mencari Saham Bagus dan Murah.

Kesimpulan

Apakah data di riset periode baik investor/trader ini akurat untuk tahun mendatang? tentulah tidak bisa dijadikan benchmark mentah – mentah. Data ini bukanlah alat prediksi masa depan, tapi hanya sebagai early warning sign untuk para investor saham. 

Ambil contoh di awal tahun 2020 ini. Krisis virus corona menyebabkan market saham terjun bebas. Anda bisa melihat BBCA dibawah 20.000, ITMG dibawah 6.000, BBRI dibawah 2.500 justru di awal tahun ini. Awal tahun ini malah menjadi bulan yang menggiurkan bagi para value investor. 

Tapi kebalikannya, ini menjadi periode yang membingungkan untuk para trader. Ilmu analisa teknikal di awal tahun 2020 menjadi tidak berlaku lagi. Sudah tidak ada garis support dan resistance. Harga saham digerakan oleh kabar wabah virus corona dan pemberian stimulus ekonomi.

Menurut saya riset periode baik investor / trader ini tidak bisa dijadikan patokan untuk timing kita berinvestasi. Anda menemukan saham murah dan bagus maka itulah waktu yang tepat untuk anda berinvestasi. Tidak peduli anda menemukan saham itu di bulan apa.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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