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Risk Rate Free of Return & Menentukan Target Return Saham

Risk Rate Free of Return
Risk Rate Free of Return

Risk free rate of return secara teori adalah return investasi yang dihasilkan dari instrumen investasi yang tidak memiliki risiko. Saya pribadi tidak setuju dengan statement tidak memiliki risiko. Karena setiap aktifitas selalu memiliki risiko apalagi yang namanya investasi.

Perbedaannya adalah ada yang memiliki peluang besar terjadi risiko tidak diinginkan dan ada yang memiliki peluang kecil terjadi risiko yang tidak diinginkan.

Jadi saya lebih suka jika pengertian risk rate free of return sebagai return investasi yang dihasilkan dari instrumen investasi yang memiliki tingkat risiko rendah.

Apakah Benar Tidak Ada Investasi Tanpa Risiko?

Sudahlah investasi jangan macam – macam, ada uang tabung di deposito saja daripada main saham malah uang jadi habis. Mungkin anda sering mendengar kalimat seperti itu dari orang terdekat anda.

Saya setuju saham adalah instrumen investasi dengan tingkat risiko yang tinggi. Jika Warren Buffet pernah kehilangan $400 juta pada investasinya di Dexter Shoes apalagi kita yang belum tentu memiliki pengetahuan, pengalaman, jumlah uang dan jaringan koneksi yang setara dengan beliau.

Tetapi ini tidak berarti ada instrumen investasi yang tidak memiliki risiko sama sekali. Menabung di Bank bisa saja dana tabungan disalahgunakan oleh oknum bank yang tidak bertanggung jawab seperti yang heboh belakangan ini.

Mungkin pembaca yang pernah menghadapi situasi krisis moneter 1998 juga bisa melihat bagaimana masyarakat tidak bisa menarik tabungan atau deposito di bank saat itu. Jadi semua instrumen selalu memiliki tingkat risiko. Untuk itu selalu butuh mengetahui aturan berlaku agar terhindar dari risiko.

Mengurangi Risiko Didalam Deposito

Di Indonesia ada lembaga yang bernama LPS (Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan) yang menjamin bahwa dana nasabah akan digantikan jika bank yang menjadi anggotanya mengalami kesulitan likuiditas, selama bank tersebut memenuhi syarat 3T:

Tercatat pada pembukuan bank –> setelah buka rekening, segera cek apakah anda bisa melihat saldo rekening anda di ATM ataupun teller bank. Jangan sampai oknum bank tidak bertanggung jawab yang menjanjikan return diatas normal tidak memasukkan kedalam pembukuan bank.

Tingkat suku bunga tidak melebihi tingkat suku bunga penjaminan LPS. Pada saat ini suku penjaminan bank umum sebesar 5.75%, suku bunga penjaminan valas 1.75% dan suku bunga penjaminan BPR 8.25%. Jika ada Bank yang memberikan diatas suku bunga tersebut, sebaiknya berhati-hati karena itu berarti LPS tidak akan bertanggung jawab jika suatu saat terjadi masalah.
Tidak menyebabkan bank menjadi gagal bayar.

Kita juga harus memperhatikan bahwa LPS hanya mengganti maksimal 2 miliar rupiah per nasabah per bank. Artinya jika anda memiliki dana diatas 2 miliar, LPS hanya mengganti maksimal 2 miliar rupiah saja.

Kita juga perlu ingat, jika kita mendapatkan promo cashback atau hadiah langsung. Maka LPS menghitung hal tersebut sebagai return yang diberikan kepada nasabah. Lagian jaman sekarang masih percaya ada yang memberikan hadiah gratis?

Promo cashback atau hadiah langsung ini sebenarnya dihitung sebagai return anda. Ini kenapa tabungan dengan promo cashback atau hadiah langsung, biasanya bunga lebih kecil dari deposito dan dana harus ditahan sekian waktu layaknya deposito.

Berapa Angka Risk Free Rate of Return Yang Dapat Dijadikan Patokan?

Menurut saya return investasi yang dapat dijadikan patokan untuk menghitung risk rate free rate of return adalah return dari deposito dan juga obligasi negara.

Suku bunga deposito yang saya maksud berarti yang tentunya maksimal sesuai suku bunga penjaminan LPS. Obligasi yang saya maksud adalah obligasi negara, karena jika negara gagal bayar obligasi maka sebenarnya sudah tidak ada instrumen investasi yang aman di negara tersebut saat itu.

Apakah obligasi perusahaan aman? Tentu lebih memiliki risiko, Jika anda membaca tulisan saya yang membahas tentang rating obligasi PEFINDO maka anda akan paham bagaimana risiko yang kita hadapi untuk obligasi perusahaan yang ratingnya rendah.

Baca juga : Cara Melihat Rating Obligasi Pefindo

Pada saat ini suku bunga deposito dan obligasi negara kurang lebih memiliki return yang hampir mirip. Yaitu sekitar 5.75%.

Menggunakan Risk Free Rate of Return dalam memilih saham

Mari kita beranggapan risk free rate of return kita saat ini sebesar 5.75%. Jika sebuah perusahaan memiliki PER (price to earning ratio) sebesar 20X maka kita bisa berasumsi jika laba perusahaan tersebut tidak meningkat maka return perusahaan tersebut berada sekitar 5% pertahun.

Jika perusahaan tersebut memiliki growth yang sangat baik misalkan diatas 15% pertahun maka masih bisa dipertimbangkan karena dengan adanya growth tersebut maka perusahaan tersebut dapat meningkatkan return yang diberikan kepada investornya.

Tetapi jika perusahaan dengan valuasi yang sudah demikian tinggi dan ternyata perusahaan tersebut juga memiliki growth net income yang rendah maka mungkin perlu kita pertimbangkan lagi. Kecuali anda menemukan harta karun dalam bentuk aset berwujud di dalam laporan keuangannya.

Apakah worthed untuk kita mengambil risiko untuk berinvestasi pada peluang investasi yang secara logika akan kalah dari return deposito?

Saham akan memiliki return yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan deposito JIKA anda berinvestasi pada saham yang tepat. Tetapi ironisnya banyak investor saham yang hasil returnnya malah dibawah return deposito.

Terserah apapun metode investasi yang anda gunakan, tetapi pilihlah saham yang hasil returnnya memiliki selisih yang worthed jika dibandingkan dengan risk free rate of return tersebut. Jika selisihnya terlalu kecil, mungkin lebih baik anda  berinvestasi pada instrumen investasi yang tingkat risikonya kecil.

Itulah kenapa didalam perhitungan nilai wajar umumnya kita memasukkan angka risk free rate of return tersebut didalam perhitungan nilai wajarnya. Jika ternyata hasilnya dirasa tidak worthed jika dibandingkan dengan return dari deposito ataupun obligasi negara maka sebaiknya pertimbangkan kembali minat anda untuk membeli saham tersebut.

Jadi berapa target return minimal yang worthed untuk kita pilih? Menurut saya, setidaknya paling minimal adalah 2x dari risk free rate of return.

Baca juga : Menghitung nilai wajar ala Benjamin Graham

Baca juga : Menghitung nilai wajar ala Warren Buffet

Saham Adalah Investasi Berisiko Tinggi

Saham itu adalah investasi yang memiliki tingkat risiko tinggi. Walaupun anda seorang yang mengerti baca laporan keuangan, tidak menjamin anda membeli perusahaan yang terlihat bagus secara valuasi tetapi anda membeli perusahaan yang akhirnya membayar obligasi saja tidak bisa sehingga suspend hingga saat ini.

Berinvestasi jangka panjang pada perusahaan bluechip, tidak menjamin investasi anda selalu bertumbuh secara konsisten. Silahkan coba tanyakan kepada investor yang membeli $HMSP pada tahun 2018 di kisaran harga 5.000 perlembar saham. Mereka akan membutuhkan waktu cukup lama hanya untuk sekedar balik modal. Saya tidak yakin mereka cukup puas dengan melihat return dari dividend yang didapatkan selama 2 tahun belakangan ini. Mungkin saya salah, tapi pandangan saya pribadi seperti itu.

Sehingga menurut saya penting untuk kita memilih emiten yang memiliki target profit cukup jauh dibandingkan risk rate free of return.

PER Rendah Bukan Segalanya Dalam Memilih Saham

Sebenarnya saya mau mengakhiri tulisan ini sampai paragraf sebelumnya. Tetapi karena saya ingat ada statement memberikan contoh saham dengan PER, membuat saya menjadi khawatir bahwa anda akan memiliki asumsi PER rendah pasti bagus.

PER rendah bisa memiliki 2 definisi apakah perusahaan itu sedang dihargai murah oleh market atau perusahaan itu memang perusahaan murahan. Karena statement terakhir terdengar cukup kasar, maka saya tidak memberikan contoh lebih lanjut contoh perusahaannya.

Memilih saham hanya semata karena PER rendah akan membuat anda mudah terkena value trap.

Saya pernah menulis artikel tentang 3 cara untuk menghindari value trap. Siapa tahu itu berguna untuk anda yang belum membacanya.

Baca juga : 3 Kesalahan Yang Menyebabkan Investor Terkena Value Trap

 

 

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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