Ada satu pertanyaan yang menarik ke saya, yaitu bagaimana menghindari value trap? Melihat pertanyaan value trap artinya orang yang mengajukan pertanyaan ini sudah mengerti tentang investasi saham. Karena dia mengerti istilah “value” didalam saham. Paling minimal dia mengerti apa itu PER (Price to Earning Ratio) ataupun PBV (Price to Book Value).
Jika anda tidak mengerti apa itu PER ataupun PBV silahkan baca tulisan saya yang membahas tentang screening saham ala value investor. Saya ada menerangkan tentang PER ataupun PBV disana.
Sayangnya banyak orang yang menghafal berapa PER dan PBV perusahaan yang terbilang murah secara valuasi. Banyak yang mengajarkan jika saham itu memiliki PER dibawah 10 dan PBV dibawah 1 maka akan dianggap murah secara valuasi. Hal itu tidak salah tapi tidak bisa dibenarkan juga.
Handphone China vs Iphone
Ini sama hal nya dengan saya menawarkan kepada anda handphone china seharga 6 juta rupiah, apakah ini terlihat murah bagi anda? Mungkin bagi anda sudah wajar handphone buatan china dijual 6 juta di pasaran. Bagaimana jika saya menawarkan kepada anda Iphone keluaran terbaru seharga 6 juta rupiah? Tentu ini akan menjadi sesuatu yang sangat menarik secara valuasi. Yang membuat murah atau mahal perusahaan lebih menarik secara valuasi tidak semerta melihat yang mana yang memiliki PER dan PBV lebih rendah.
Sebenarnya banyak sekali hal yang harus dipertimbangkan dalam memilih saham yang menarik secara valuasi. Untuk lebih jelasnya bisa baca tulisan saya tentang tutorial value investing yang membahas apa saja step demi step yang harus dilakukan hingga kita membeli saham yang menarik secara value. Banyak hal yang diperhatikan. Tapi kali ini saya mau membahas khusus kesalahan value investor pemula dalam memandang PER dan PBV yang sering membawa mereka terkena value trap.
Kesalahan 1 – Tidak Mengerti Kategori Saham
Saham itu memiliki berbagai macam kategori dan berbeda kategori maka akan berbeda standard PER dan PBV yang diberikan oleh market.
Analogi mudahnya begini jika saya rekrut karyawan baru dengan gaji 7 juta rupiah apakah saya membayar terlalu mahal atau terlalu murah untuk karyawan tersebut? Tergantung, jika yang saya rekrut adalah fresh graduate bisa jadi rate itu adalah rate standard atau bahkan kemahalan. Jika yang saya rekrut adalah orang yang memiliki keahlian dan pengalaman 15 tahun sebagai manajer operasional maka saya membayar terlalu murah.
Berbeda level kompetensi karyawan yang saya rekrut maka memiliki perbedaan standard gaji yang diberikan. Begitu juga dalam saham, berbeda kategori saham maka berbeda standard PER ataupun PBV yang pantas untuk emiten itu.
Untuk lebih mengerti tentang kategori saham silahkan baca tulisan saya tentang kategori saham peter lynch.
Perusahaan yang bisa menghasilkan growth yang bagus untuk laba dan salesnya (fast mover) tentu wajar jika dihargai dengan PER dan PBV yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan perusahaan yang growth sales dan laba nya kecil.
Tapi ada perusahaan yang konsisten rugi dan dihargai dengan PER dan PBV tinggi maka itu hanya untuk yang “suka tantangan”.
Kesalahan 2 – Tidak mengetahui nilai rata – rata PER dan PBV dari perusahaan tersebut.
Jika ada perusahaan memiliki PER bernilai 5 maka banyak orang akan bilang perusahaan ini memiliki valuasi yang murah karena PER jauh dibawah 10.
Tapi jika PER perusahaan tersebut selama 3 tahun terakhir selalu di kisaran 5 apakah perusahaan itu lagi dalam kondisi murah secara valuasi atau memang sudah sewajarnya perusahaan itu diberikan valuasi senilai itu? Market memang membutuhkan waktu untuk menemukan saham salah harga, tapi ya ga sampai 3 tahun juga perusahaan itu salah harga terus. Pelaku market itu pintar dan berpengalaman, jika ada saham yang salah harga pasti tidak terlalu lama untuk ditemukan dan naik walaupun dalam 3 tahun belum sampai naik ke harga puncak.
Jika ada perusahaan memiliki PER bernilai 15 maka banyak orang akan bilang perusahaan ini memiliki valuasi yang mahal karena PER jauh diatas 10.
Tapi jika PER perusahaan tersebut selama 3 tahun terakhir di kisaran 20 dan saat ini di kisaran 15 maka PER 15 ini akan terlihat menarik oleh market.
Studi Kasus SRIL dan TLKM
Mari lihat historical PER dari 2 perusahaan yang saya jadikan contoh dalam tulisan ini, yaitu SRIL dan TLKM.
Saya mengambil gambar diatas dari Fundachart stockbit. Garis ungu adalah historical pergerakan PER saham TLKM dan garis biru adalah historical pergerakan PER saham SRIL.
Dari data 3 tahun terakhir, biasanya PER TLKM berada di kisaran diatas 20. Sehingga jika saat ini PER TLKM di kisaran 15 maka bisa dibilang TLKM lagi cukup murah melihat kondisi PER saat ini.
Dari data 3 tahun terakhir, biasanya PER SRIL berada di kisaran 5. Sehingga jika membeli SRIL semata karena PER dibawah 10 bisa jadi anda akan kecewa. SRIL pernah mencapai PER 2.29 dan tidak butuh waktu lama setelah itu harga sahamnya naik hingga mencapai PER di kisaran 4. Ini yang saya sebut market tidak butuh waktu terlalu lama hingga menemukan saham yang salah harga. Market kita diisi banyak orang pintar dan berpengalaman di saham.
Apakah sekarang anda bisa melihat kenapa orang bisa terkena value trap? PER ataupun PBV kecil tidak bisa secara mudah diasumsikan terkena perusahaan itu murah secara valuasi.
Murah Itu Relatif, Mahal Itu Mutlak
Saya suka satu candaan yang cukup menyakitkan. Cantik itu relatif, jelek itu mutlak. Didalam saham juga sama murah itu relatif tapi mahal itu mutlak. Sebagus apapun perusahaan tersebut jika PER sudah diatas 40 dan PBV diatas 3 maka perusahaan itu sungguh sudah mahal.
HMSP jelas sebuah perusahaan yang memiliki kinerja bagus. tapi di tahun 2018 HMSP pernah mencapai PER 49x dengan PBV 19x. Tidak heran walaupun laba HMSP masih bisa meningkat tetapi harga sahamnya turun tajam.
Kesalahan 3 – Cuma Mengandalkan PER dan PBV
Saya tidak pernah bilang PER dan PBV tidak penting. Saya pribadi menggunakan PER dan PBV sebagai salah satu parameter untuk screening saham. Akan tetapi terlalu mengandalkan PER dan PBV dalam mencari saham yang menarik secara valuasi sungguh tidak disarankan.
Ada banyak kondisi sebuah perusahaan dengan valuasi yang murah bisa jadi memiliki PER yang terbilang tinggi. Current PER itu berdasarkan laba bersih perusahaan saat ini, ada kondisi yang menyebabkan laba mereka saat ini turun dan tidak bisa dihindari. Saya rasa tidak terlalu banyak perusahaan yang labanya masih bisa meningkat di tahun ini walaupun memang ada. Mayoritas laba perusahaan turun sejak pandemi COVID-19.
Ketika laba di quarter 1 dan quarter 2 tahun ini turun maka secara otomatis PER perusahaan ini bisa meningkat dengan pesat padahal harga sahamnya justru turun semakin jauh lebih murah lagi.
PER dan PBV bisa anda gunakan untuk screening saham anda. Tapi saran saya sebagai teman anda, jangan pernah memutuskan membeli saham hanya berdasarkan PER dan PBV saja. Jika tidak selamat bergabung ke komunitas investor value trap.
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