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Berapa Dividend ITMG 2021 (Dividend Final 2020)

Prediksi Dividend ITMG
Prediksi Dividend ITMG

Banyak pertanyaan yang masuk perihal berapa dividend ITMG yang mungkin akan cair pada april 2021 ini.

Ada yang khawatir jangan – jangan tidak ada dividend ITMG yang turun karena kecilnya laba bersih ITMG di tahun 2020 ini. Atau jangan – jangan angka dividend ITMG akan menjadi sangat kecil.

Sebenarnya wajar sih orang panik bahwa dividend ITMG akan mengecil. Jika dividend ITMG mengecil maka fans yang selama ini menyombongkan betapa hebatnya dividend ITMG bisa jadi kecewa. Hal ini tentu akan menjadi sentimen yang kurang baik untuk emiten ini.

Saatnya jual atau saatnya beli? ada yang bertanya kepada saya by Instagram, Stockbit, Whatsapp perihal ini sejak ITMG mengeluarkan Laporan Keuangan 2020.

Untuk itu saya akan buat prediksi saya, MOHON DIINGAT ini adalah prediksi dan tentu saja bisa SALAH. Menebak Dividen tidak mungkin 100% akurat, karena ini tergantung dari manajemen perusahaan. Tapi mari saya bahas logikanya dan berapa prediksi dividend yang akan keluar. Tapi tentu saja ini disclaimer on dan anggap ini sebagai konten edukasi dan tidak mengajak untuk membeli ataupun menjual emiten tersebut.

Bahas Singkat Dividend

Dividend adalah bagi hasil yang diberikan oleh perusahaan untuk pemegang sahamnya. Salah satu persyaratan perusahaan untuk membagi dividend adalah perusahaan memiliki laba ditahan positif.

Untuk laba ditahan ITMG sendiri masih di 472.176.000 USD yang artinya masih berada di sekitar 6.6 Triliun rupiah (asumsi kurs USD 14.105 sesuai yang digunakan di laporan keuangan 2020).

Perusahaan untuk membagikan dividend maka harus memperhatikan apakah perusahaan tersebut memiliki posisi kas yang cukup atau tidak. Itu kenapa dalam mencari saham growth investing banyak yang memperhatikan apakah dividend payout ratio BERDASARKAN FCF (Free Cash Flow) ataupun CFO (Cash Flow from Operations) masih aman atau tidak.

CFO (Cash Flow from Operations) adalah perbandingan jumlah uang yang keluar (bayar supplier, gaji, dll) dan masuk (hasil jualan barang/jasa) untuk kebutuhan operational perusahaan.

FCF (Free Cash Flow) adalah CFO yang dikurangkan dengan belanja modal (beli fixed assets).

CFO dan FCF menandakan lebih jelas bagaimana alur kas perusahaan tersebut, apakah perusahaan tersebut memiliki posisi kas yang sehat atau tidak dibandingkan sekedar laba bersih perusahaan.

Sekarang mari kita bahas data historical dividend payout ratio ITMG berdasarkan data historicalnya.

Buat lebih jelas tentang berbagai istilah ini, saya sarankan anda baca tulisan saya tentang dividend hunter

Baca juga : Teknik Dividend Hunter dalam Investasi Saham

Berapa Sisa Laba Bersih 2020 yang Masih Bisa Dibagikan Sebagai Dividend ITMG?

ITMG biasanya membagi dividend 2x dalam setahun. Pada akhir tahun, sekitar oktober atau november emiten ini membagikan dividen interim (sementara). Jadi pada November 2021 lalu ITMG membagikan dividen interim (sementara) sebesar 307 perlembar saham.

Karena jumlah saham beredar sekitar 1.13 miliar lembar saham maka itu senilai dengan nilai 346 miliar rupiah yang sudah dibagikan.

Yang menjadi masalah adalah, laba bersih ITMG pada tahun 2020 hanya senilai sekitar 37 juta usd. Jika dengan kurs 14.105 sesuai laporan keuangan maka itu senilai dengan laba bersih 533 miliar rupiah.

Sehingga jika kita kurangkan laba bersih 533 miliar dengan nilai dividend interim ITMG yang sudah dibagikan tahun lalu senilai 346 miliar rupiah maka hanya tinggal tersisa keuntungan bersih 186 miliar rupiah saja.

Jika kita bagi dengan 1.13 miliar lembar saham yang tersisa maka jika berasumsi ITMG membagikan 100% dividend payout ratio BERDASARKAN laba bersih maka hanya tersisa dividend ITMG senilai 165 rupiah perlembar saham.

Sehingga sebenarnya apa yang ditakutkan oleh beberapa orang di forum, sebenarnya logis dan valid saja.

Tetapi mari kita jangan ambil kesimpulan terlalu cepat terlebih dahulu. Mari kita bahas data berikutnya.

Bayar Dividend Menggunakan Uang Kas Bukan Saldo Laba

Apakah pembayaran dividend maksimal 100% dari laba bersih perusahaan? maka jika kita lihat di dalam beberapa tahun ini ITMG membagikan dividend dengan payout ratio diatas 100%, yaitu:

  • Tahun 2015 – Laba bersih 871M, Total Dividend 917M. Berarti Payout Ratio 105%.
  • Tahun 2016 – Laba bersih 1.75T, total Dividend 1.78T. Berarti Payout Ratio 101%.
  • Tahun 2017 – Laba bersih 3.4T, total dividend 3.5T. Berarti Payout Ratio 104%.
  • Tahun 2018 – Laba bersih 3.7T, total dividend 3.9T. Berarti Payout Ratio 104%.

Akan ada dua pertanyaan yang mungkin ditanyakan oleh pembaca yang kritis:

Kenapa data payout ratio di aplikasi saham berbeda dengan yang saya tuliskan?

Karena di aplikasi saham mereka menghitung jumlah dividend yang dibagikan di tahun tersebut. Misalkan april 2015 pembayaran dividend untuk tahun 2014. November 2015 dividend interim untuk tahun 2015. Tetapi karena dividend didalam tahun yang sama, maka sistem menghitung dalam satu angka perhitungan jumlah dividend yang dibagikan. Ini yang menyebabkan munculnya perbedaan dengan cara perhitungan manual yang kita benar-benar menggunakan data dividend untuk tahun tersebut.

Kenapa perusahaan bisa membagikan dividend lebih dari 100% net income?

Karena perusahaan tersebut memiliki kas yang besar. Kalau anda lihat dividend payout ratio secara laba bersih memang diatas 100%. Tetapi berapakah kalau secara posisi cashflow?

  • Tahun 2015 – CFO senilai 2.6T, total dividend 917M. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAn CFO senilai 35%.
  • Tahun 2016 – CFO senilai 1.9T, total dividend sebesar 1.7T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN CFO senilai 91%.
  • Tahun 2017 – CFO senilai 4.3T, total dividend sebesar 3.5T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN CFO senilai 82%
  • Tahun 2018 – CFO senilai 5.1T, total dividend sebesar 3.9T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN CFO senilai 76%
  • Tahun 2019 – CFO senilai 1.2T, total dividend sebesar 1.4T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN CFO senilai 116%.

Selain tahun 2019 yang terjadi penurunan bisnis signifikan, maka sebenarnya ITMG tidak pernah membagikan dividend melebihi CFO dalam 5 tahun terakhir. Semua yang mengikuti ITMG, tentu tahu bahwa 2019 bukan tahun yang baik buat ITMG walau setuju 2020 jauh lebih suram. Tapi kita lihat bagaimana upaya dari manajemen ITMG untuk terus memberikan “godaan” bagi para investor ITMG.

Jadi apakah manajemen ITMG akan mencoba memberikan godaan untuk kita para investor ITMG dengan penurunan kinerja bisnis yang suram di 2020 ini. Saya rasa hal itu akan besar kemungkinan terjadi.

Jika Melihat FCF (Free Cash Flow) Apakah Akan Menjadi Lebih Menarik?

Mari kita langsung masuk ke data perhitungan payout ratio dibandingkan dengan FCF dari ITMG.

  • Tahun 2015 – FCF senilai 2.1T, total dividend sebesar 917M. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN FCF senilai 42%.
  • Tahun 2016 – FCF senilai 1.6T, total dividend sebesar 1.7T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN FCF senilai 109%.
  • Tahun 2017 – FCF senilai 3.4T, total dividend sebesar 3.5T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN FCF senilai 104%.
  • Tahun 2018 – FCF senilai 3.7T, total dividend sebesar 3.9T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN FCF senilai 105%.
  • Tahun 2019 – FCF senilai 179M, total dividend sebesar 1.4T. Berarti payout ratio BERDASARKAN FCF senilai 805%!!!!!

Bagaimana Posisi Payout Ratio ITMG di tahun 2020?

Pada November 2020 lalu, ITMG sudah membagikan dividend interim senilai 307 perlembar saham. Yang jika kita kalikan dengan jumlah saham beredar ini senilai dengan 346 miliar rupiah yang sudah dibagikan sebagai dividend.

Jika kita bandingkan dengan laba bersih ITMG yang jika dirupiahkan senilai 533 miliar rupiah, maka dividend interim kemarin sudah menggunakan 65% laba bersih perusahaan.

Jika kita bandingkan dengan CFO ITMG yang jika dirupiahkan senilai 2.4T rupiah, maka dividend interim kemarin baru menggunakan 14% CFO.

Jika kita bandingkan dengan FCF ITMG yang jika dirupiahkan senilai 2.1T rupiah, maka dividend interim kemarin baru menggunakan 16% FCF.

Orang terlalu terfokus pada mengecilnya laba bersih ITMG tetapi mungkin tidak terlalu memperhatikan peningkatan saldo cashflow dari emiten ini.

ITMG masih memiliki sisa cashflow baik dalam saldo CFO ataupun FCF yang masih sangat banyak. Ditambah dengan luar biasanya harga coal saat ini, maka tentu saja ini akan menjadi hal yang bisa jadi ditoleransi oleh manajemen untuk memberikan dividen lebih besar dari laba bersih perusahaan. Karena kecuali ada keanehan di harga komoditas coal untuk bisa turun signifikan ke 50 usd seperti tahun lalu, saya rasa tidak ada yang menghalangi sebuah emiten coal akan meningkat laba bersihnya secara signifikan pada tahun ini.

Jadi Berapa Perkiraan Dividen ITMG untuk Dividend Final Tahun 2020?

Sejujurnya saya tidak tahu, karena kembali lagi keputusan berapa besar dividend ITMG adalah sepenuhnya keputusan manajemen perusahaan. Saya hanya investor biasa dan bukan bagian dari mereka.

Tetapi jika kita berasumsi saja mau menggunakan 60% CFO maka itu senilai 1.4T. Sehingga jika kita mengurangi jumlah saldo dividend interim yang sudah dibagikan November kemarin maka masih tersisa CFO 1.1T yang masih bisa dibagikan. Jika dibagi dengan jumlah saham beredar 1.13 miliar lembar saham, maka itu senilai dengan dividend 986 perlembar saham yang masih bisa mereka bagikan kepada kita.

Jika kita berasumsi mau menggunakan 60% FCF maka itu senilai 1.3T. Sehingga masih ada tersisa FCF 953M yang masih bisa dibagikan. Yang berarti masih ada sekitar dividend 843 perlembar saham yang masih bisa dibagikan.

Walaupun masih banyak jumlah uang yang bisa dibagikan sebenarnya untuk ITMG, saya pribadi tidak terlalu berekspektasi dengan jumlah dividen sebesar angka diatas. Tetapi jika manajemen memberikan jumlah angka diatas ya saya tentu ga nolak juga.

Saya sudah cukup happy jika manajemen mengeluarkan dividend di kisaran 500. Jika kita totalkan dengan dividend kemarin sebesar 307 perlembar saham, maka total dividend ITMG tahun 2020 adalah sebesar 807.

Tahun lalu kita belanja ITMG di harga sangat bagus sekali, mungkin average yang beli ditahun lalu dibawah angka 10.000 perlembar saham. Artinya total dividend 807 masih senilai 8%. Bukan hal jelek untuk sebuah emiten yang baru mengalami tahun yang buruk.

Tapi kalau anda belinya pas kemarin ITMG di 14.000, kalau hanya dapat cuma 500 kan kecil sekali dividendnya. Sabar donk sampai anda dapatkan dividend interim di akhir tahun, ketika kalian menikmati peningkatan laba ITMG karena peningkatan harga komoditasnya.

Kesimpulan

Lalu apakah ITMG menarik atau tidak untuk dibeli? Tergantung apakah anda percaya bahwa harga coal akan meningkat tinggi ditahun ini atau tidak. Kalau anda tanya saya, maka saya sudah bahas berkali-kali tentang potensi harga coal sejak saya menulis gold coal ratio.

Baca juga : Gold Coal Ratio

Kalau harga coal meningkat tinggi AKHIR TAHUN ini maka tentu laba perusahaan tambang (tidak hanya ITMG) akan menjadi luar biasa. Bahkan perusahaan yang dijadikan bahan ledekan para investor di bursa saham akan menjadi daya tarik bagi para investor di bursa saham nantinya.

Kalau anda berharap apakah ITMG akan naik 2 bulan kedepan, anda salah pilih bulan dalam membeli saham. Anda sedang membeli perusahaan tambang di saat harga komoditas lagi masuk fase koreksi.

Karena saya investor jangka panjang, maka tentu saya akan bilang harga sekarang menarik. Saya percaya tahun ini adalah tahun baik untuk sektor komoditas, terutama coal dan oil. Buktinya saya masih cicil membeli ITMG di 12.125 hari ini dan beberapa saham lain didalam sektor yang saya sebutkan diatas.

Sejujurnya, saya kalau tidak ada yang bertanya untuk minta pendapat saya tentang ITMG saya tidak akan membuat tulisan ini. Saya menikmati pesimisme market terhadap emiten ini.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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