Saya pernah membuat tulisan tentang gold coal ratio pada tahun lalu. Gold coal ratio adalah hasil riset yang ide awalnya saya kembangkan dari Dow Gold Ratio.
Dow Gold Ratio pertama kali diperkenalkan oleh Peter Schiff dalam bukunya yang berjudul “Crash Proof” dimana dia mengukur kapan market akan mengalami crash. Pengukuran yang beliau lakukan berdasarkan perbandingan harga emas (XAUUSD) dengan dow jones (DJIA). Jika anda mau mengetahui lebih lanjut tentang dow gold ratio, saya pernah membuat tulisannya.
Baca juga : Dow Gold Ratio – Alat Deteksi Krisis Ekonomi Dunia
Karena saya adalah penyuka saham sektor mining terutama coal maka saya mencoba untuk membuat riset sederhana yang berjudul gold coal ratio. Tujuan dari ratio tersebut adalah mengetahui apakah harga batu bara sudah sangat murah atau belum. Jika harga batu bara (coal) sudah sangat murah maka tinggal menunggu waktu untuk harga batu bara (coal) untuk naik.
Valuasi dari nilai USD mungkin bukanlah valuasi yang tepat. 1 USD sepuluh tahun yang lalu memiliki daya beli yang berbeda dengan 1 USD pada saat ini. Itulah kenapa ketika saya mempelajari tentang dow gold ratio saya tertarik untuk menggunakan ide tersebut untuk melakukan analisa harga coal. Maka timbul hasil riset kecil saya membahas perbandingan coal terhadap harga gold.
Saya tidak tahu apakah ada riset sebelumnya yang melakukan riset untuk hal yang sama dengan ratio ini atau tidak. Tapi klo hasil dari google search, saya belum menemukan tulisan lain yang membahas tentang gold coal ratio. Maka mungkin itu alasan kenapa investorsaham.id muncul pada rank pertama dalam keyword gold coal ratio.
Rangkuman Gold Coal Ratio
Bukan perkara mudah bagi saya hold salah satu tambang di tahun ini. Ketika maret terjadi harga saham tambang yang saya pegang turun begitu menyeramkan. Tidak heran banyak investor yang mencoba masuk ke saham tambang akhirnya pamit karena tidak kuat melihat sadisnya penurunan saham tambang saat itu.
Bayangkan saja ITMG yang saya pegang di akhir tahun 2019 masih bernilai 11.475 saat itu. Market ketika COVID-19 tega membuat saham tersebut turun hingga 5.650 ketika maret 2020 ini. Itu berarti penurunan 51%. Celakanya lagi saat itu nilai average saya masih jauh diatas harga closed 2019. Jadi anda bisa bayangkan seberapa berat buat saya klo melihat angka merah dengan digit yang panjang di portofolio saham saya.
Saya sungguh bisa memahami perasaan para pejuang coal yang gugur di tahun 2020 ini karena kalau saya tidak memiliki keyakinan yang kuat maka saya saya bisa goyah juga saat itu.
Setiap hari mendapatkan message harga coal akan ke 40 USD akan turun ke 30 USD dari teman – teman baik hati yang mencoba menasehati saya. Dimana kalau harga coal turun serendah itu tentu laba perusahaan akan berkurang drastis dan valuasi saham juga akan berkurang drastis.
Hanya dua hal yang membuat saya yakin tetap hold dengan hati yang ikhlas terus menambah saham mining ditengah banyaknya fear bertebaran saat itu. Pertama ITMG memiliki dividen yang baik. Saya rasa selama masa jelek mendapatkan return dividend kurang lebih hampir 10% pertahun bukan hal jelek bagi saya (nilai average saya terbilang tinggi jika dibandingkan teman-teman yang baru entry di tahun 2020 tentunya). Kedua adalah saya yakin harga coal sudah sangat murah. Jika sudah sangat murah maka hanya satu jalan, yaitu naik. Jika naik maka saham coal saya akan pulih. Jika pulih maka dividen juga akan meningkat. Dua hal itu yang membuat saya masih bisa tidur nyenyak memegang saham di sektor yang tidak disukai orang saat itu.
Saya membuat tulisan tentang gold coal ratio di stockbit pertama kali pada tanggal 23 December 2019 di link https://stockbit.com/post/3334698
Informasi Perihal Gold Coal Ratio
Gold coal ratio yang semakin kecil artinya 1 gold bisa membeli semakin kecil jumlah coal. Ini berarti harga coal lebih mahal dibandingkan ratio dengan value yang lebih besar.
Tentu harga saham tambang akan mencapai puncaknya ketika gold coal ratio dengan nilai rendah. Karena tentu itu berarti harga batu bara lagi di titik harga yang tinggi dan perusahaan tambang menikmati puncak siklusnya. Begitu juga sebaliknya, jika gold coal ratio tinggi maka harga perusahaan tambang biasanya rendah juga.
Saya mendapati januari 2011 gold coal ratio mencapai puncak terendahnya yaitu 10X. ITMG saat itu bernilai 57.950 dan harga batu bara saat itu 130 USD.
Ketika Februari 2016 kita mendapati siklus terendah harga batu bara menurut gold coal ratio. Saat itu gold coal ratio di titik 22x. ITMG saat itu bernilai 4.675 dan harga coal di 66.4 USD.
Ketika september 2020 ini harga coal sempat dibawah 50 USD dan harga gold pada September 2020 anggaplah di 1960 USD. Itu berarti gold coal ratio senilai 39.2X. Harga yang luar biasa murah menurut gold coal ratio.
Ketika tulisan ini dibuat coal lagi di harga 69 USD dan harga gold di 1772 USD. Ini berarti gold coal ratio senilai 25.6X.
Growth dari gold coal ratio 39.2X ke 25.6X dalam waktu 3 bulan tentu bukanlah hal yang jelek. Apakah ini berarti awal mula siklus coal? Tidak ada yang mengetahui pasti hal tersebut. Tapi setidaknya ITMG saya sudah tidak mengalami floating loss dan sudah mendapatkan profit yang bagus.
Keyakinan untuk terus berani melakukan average down berbasiskan logika dan data membuat saya memiliki keberanian untuk mengubah floating loss LUAR BIASA besar menjadi profit yang memuaskan.
By the way kalau anda tertarik membaca tulisan tentang gold coal ratio silahkan baca di link terlampir.
Baca juga : Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Batu Bara
Pandangan Saya terhadap Prospek Batu Bara
Batu bara akan menjadi sunset industry? Saya SANGAT SETUJU! Saya yakin batu bara akan menjadi sunset industry paling cepat 10 tahun lagi dan paling lambat 20 tahun lagi. Tetapi karena saya tidak berencana hold ITMG saya sampai 10 tahun lagi maka saya tidak permasalahkan hal tersebut.
Apakah ini trend siklus batu bara? Saya didalam posisi sulit untuk menjawab hal tersebut. Tapi silahkan anda simpulkan sendiri jika gold coal ratio mengalami kenaikan yang cukup cepat dari 39.2X ke 25.6X dalam waktu 3 bulan saja saya rasa boleh saja optimisme itu muncul.
Saya ga berani bilang ini adalah permulaan siklus, karena kalau saya bilang begitu dan anda jadi tertarik beli saham batu bara yang sudah naik dengan luar biasa ini tetapi belum memiliki mental investor sektor mining maka saya merasa serba salah.
Jadi silahkan anda tentukan sendiri berdasarkan tulisan ini.
Pandangan Saya Terhadap Penutupan IHSG 2020
Tetapi disatu sisi saya sangat senang lihat market hari ini akhirnya koreksi juga. Market kita membutuhkan hal ini. Kita boleh saja mengalami optimisme karena window dressing ataupun penggantian presiden US dari yang sebelumnya terlalu pro ekonomi US menjadi presiden yang lebih “cinta damai”.
Tetapi disatu sisi, kita harus ingat ekonomi tahun 2020 ini dengan situasi COVID-19 tentu tidak lebih baik dibandingkan kondisi ekonomi tahun 2019. Tidak banyak perusahaan yang terus bisa menumbuhkan laba di tahun ini. Tetapi optimisme market yang luar biasa mampu membawa Dow Jones mendapatkan rekor tertinggi. Sungguh luar biasa menurut saya optimisme market ini.
Bahkan dengan begitu cepatnya kenaikan Dow Jones indikator VIX masih begitu rendahnya. Yang menandakan market sangat optimis dengan kondisi market saat ini. Tetapi suatu kenaikan yang melebihi performa dari kinerja bisnis bukanlah sesuatu yang saya pandang sehat. Sehingga koreksi adalah sesuatu yang diperlukan untuk kondisi market saat ini.
Tetapi jika memang benar akan terjadi koreksi baik itu di Dow Jones atau di IHSG kita tercinta maka ini adalah koreksi yang berbeda dengan koreksi Maret 2020 ini. Kalau bahasa dari Mardigu Bossman sudah tidak ada agenda politik lagi terhadap COVID-19 ini.
Akhir kata dari tulisan ini, jika terjadi koreksi maka selamat menikmati parade diskon terakhir di tahun ini. Jika koreksi benaran harus terjadi maka seharusnya tidak terlalu menakutkan. Saya rasa IHSG bisa closed di 5600-5800 untuk akhir tahun 2020 ini adalah sebuah pencapaian yang sudah sangat baik. Kalau sampai bisa closed diatas 6.000 maka saya cuma bisa bilang LUAR BIASA.
Mau market naik atau turun saya rasa ini momen yang bisa dinikmati untuk saat ini. Happy investing semuanya. Semoga semuanya mendapatkan return yang memuaskan
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