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Apakah Value Investor Menggunakan Analisa Teknikal?

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Apakah Value Investor Menggunakan Analisa Teknikal?

Sebelum menjadi value investor, saya adalah seorang trader yang terbiasa melakukan analisa teknikal dalam memilih saham.

Lalu apakah sebagai value investor saya masih menggunakan analisa teknikal? Jawaban saya ya saya masih menggunakan analisa teknikal.

Tapi tujuan analisa teknikalnya berbeda dengan trader. Trader menggunakan analisa teknikal untuk menentukan saham apa yang dibeli. Sedangkan seorang value investor sudah menemukan saham bagus dan murah terlebih dahulu. Lalu menggunakan analisa teknikal untuk menentukan kapan momentum yang tepat untuk masuk ke saham tersebut.

Sebagai value investor, saya memiliki target profit minimal 100% dengan holding period 3-5 tahun. Perbedaan kenaikan penurunan saham sekian persen dengan menggunakan analisa teknikal sebenarnya tidak berpengaruh banyak terhadap imbal balik investasi value investor.

Tapi selalu tidak ada yang salah dengan bisa mendapatkan harga saham lebih murah lagi. Dan analisa teknikal bisa membantu value investor untuk mendapatkan harga saham lebih murah lagi.

Mengerti Basic Dari Analisa Teknikal

Analisa teknikal adalah analisa menggunakan chart. Chart disini berisikan data historis pergerakan market. Dengan melihat data chart ini kita bisa mengetahui kira – kira apa yang akan dilakukan market melihat historical data yang ada.

Sebagai contoh, jika sebuah saham selalu mengalami penurunan ketika menyentuh harga 1.000, maka kita bisa melihat harga 1.000 ini adalah titik resistance saham tersebut. Market menganggap harga saham terlalu mahal dan mereka melepas saham tersebut.

Jika sebuah saham selalu mengalami rebound ketika menyentuh harga 500, maka kita bisa melihat harga 500 adalah titik support saham tersebut. Market menganggap harga saham itu terlalu murah dihargai 500 dan mereka melakukan akumulasi di saham itu.

Contoh Analisa Support Resistance

Anallsa Teknikal Value Investor
Anallsa Teknikal Value Investor

Mari kita melihat untuk BBRI dengan chart weekly. Kita bisa melihat BBRI memiliki support (garis merah) di kisaran 2950. Ketika harga turun hingga ke 2.950 biasanya harga saham rebound.

Kita juga bisa melihat BBRI memiliki resistance (garis hijau) di kisaran 4.500. Dimana beberapa kali BBRI ketika menyentuh 4.500 terjadi reversal.

Sebagai value investor jika harga mendekati titik resistance, maka ada baiknya kita tidak terburu – buru masuk. Karena bisa saja sebentar lagi ada reversal dan akan diberikan diskon tambahan bagi kita.

Contoh Penggunaan Indicator

Indicator CCI
Indicator CCI

Saya sebagai seorang value investor sudah tidak menggunakan banyak indicator lagi dalam melakukan analisa teknikal. Alasannya karena saya bukan trader. Holding Period saya jangka panjang. Dan jika analisa teknikal saya akurasinya rendah saya tidak pernah menjadi masalah. Karena saya yakin investasi saya pasti untung karena saya membeli saham bagus dan murah.

Satu – satunya indicator yang saya gunakan untuk analisa teknikal saya adalah indicator CCI (20). Saya akan tertarik masuk ketika indicator CCI menunjukkan dibawah -100 seperti yang saya tunjukkan di gambar terlampir. Beli dibawah karena harga sudah oversold dan tidak membeli diatas karena harga sudah overbought.

Kesimpulan

Saya sebagai value investor menggunakan analisa teknikal untuk membantu melihat apakah market masih memberikan harga lebih murah lagi atau tidak.

Tapi saya tidak menggunakan analisa teknikal untuk menentukan membeli saham yang mana sebagai seorang value investor. Faktor yang menentukan saham apa yang dibeli atau tidak sebagai value investor adalah perusahaan bagus dan dijual murah.

Analisa teknikal hanya membantu untuk melihat apakah bisa mendapatkan lebih murah lagi atau tidak. Itu saja.

Untuk melakukan analisa teknikal saya juga sederhana sekali cukup mencari titik support dan menunggu CCI menunjukkan fase oversold. Ya hanya itu.

Jika anda seorang trader, maka tolong jangan jadikan analisa teknikal ini sebagai patokan anda. Tulisan saya yang bermanfaat untuk kalian adalah teknik 2R.

Baca juga : Teknik 2R – Teknik Rahasia Profit Konsisten Trader.

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Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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