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Tiga Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Kinerja Harga Saham

Faktor Harga saham Naik Turun
Faktor Harga saham Naik Turun

Ada tiga faktor yang mempengaruhi kinerja harga saham suatu perusahaan, yaitu:

  1. Pertumbuhan Riil (Kenaikan laba dan dividen perusahaan)
  2. Pertumbuhan Inflasioner (Kenaikan umum harga dalam keseluruhan perekonomian)
  3. Pertumbuhan / Penurunan spekulatif (setara publik terhadap suatu saham)

Jadi mari kita bahas point tersebut satu demi satu.

Pertumbuhan Riil

Apa yang diharapkan seorang investor dari investasi sahamnya? tentu saja untuk mendapatkan capital gain dan dividen.

Bagaimana perusahaan bisa memberikan dividen? tentu saja jika perusahaan bisa menghasilkan keuntungan.

Bagaimana investor bisa mendapatkan capital gain? tentu saja mencari investor lain yang mau membayarkan saham yang dimiliki dengan harga yang lebih mahal.

Alasan paling logis apa yang membuat orang mau membayar suatu saham lebih mahal? Jika mereka melihat ada peningkatan suatu kinerja yang menarik dari sebuah emiten itu.

Mari kita buat simulasi singkat, jika saat ini ada sebuah perusahaan dijual dengan harga 1 miliar rupiah dan perusahaan itu menghasilkan laba bersih setahun 50 juta rupiah.

Pada tahun depan ternyata perusahaan itu menghasilkan laba bersih 250 juta rupiah, apakah menurut anda pemilik yang memiliki sebelumnya masih mau menjual perusahaan itu di harga 1 miliar rupiah? Apakah ada yang akan tertarik mencoba menawar perusahaan tersebut dengan harga lebih dari 1 miliar rupiah?

Pertumbuhan riil adalah alasan paling logis untuk menarik perhatian orang untuk membayar harga saham lebih mahal lagi dibandingkan harga beli kita. Alasannya tentu saja karena yang membeli saham anda juga ingin mendapatkan keuntungan.

Pertumbuhan Inflasioner

Ketka mendengar kata inflasi membuat otak kita selalu memiliki pandangan negatif. Tetapi uniknya semua pemangku kebijakan ekonomi sedang berusaha meningkatkan inflasi saat ini yang terlalu rendah.

Inflasi sendiri artinya adalah peningkatan harga produk / jasa yang didapatkan di market. Kenapa harga produk / jasa harganya bisa meningkat tentu saja karena lebih banyaknya permintaan dibandingkan penawaran.

Ketika terjadi suatu inflasi (peningkatan harga) maka dalam satu sisi yang lain berarti adanya peningkatan permintaan (jumlah transaksi). Hal ini akan berarti baik bagi perusahaan.

Inflasi yang terkontrol adalah sesuatu yang baik untuk sistem ekonomi SELAMA tidak menghancurkan daya beli konsumen.

Inflasi yang kecil masih dapat digunakan oleh perusahaan untuk menaikkan harga produknya dan dibebankan kepada pelanggannya. Tetapi ketika inflasi sudah menjadi terlalu besar maka ini barulah menjadi suatu permasalahan.

Ketika inflasi sudah menjadi terlalu besar, harga produk terlalu mahal maka orang akan membatasi transaksi uang yang mereka lakukan. Penurunan jumlah transaksi artinya penurunan permintaan yang akan berujung pada penurunan pendapatan dan laba perusahaan.

Tujuan utama dari berinvestasi sebenarnya adalah mengalahkan inflasi yang berarti membuat kita memiliki daya beli yang terus meningkat dan tidak tergerus dengan kejamnya inflasi. Itu kenapa biasanya tingkat return investasi yang kecil resiko akan berpatokan dengan besar kecilnya tingkat inflasi yang kita hadapi.

Saat ini inflasi maret 2021 ada di 0.08%, hal ini membuat pemerintah pusing tujuh keliling. Karena ini berarti kurangnya transaksi yang ada di market. Membuat pemerintah mengeluarkan ide kreatif untuk membuat masyarakatnya konsumtif, terutama kaum ekonomi menengah keatas. Itulah alasan dibalik kenapa pemerintah begitu murah hati memberikan insentif pajak dividen, PPnBM kendaraan, dan berbagai kenikmatan lain yang lagi jarang bisa kita nikmatin.

Jadi jangan panik nanti kalau kalian baca berita inflasi naik 2% maka itu adalah hal yang baik. Tapi kalau inflasi diatas 8% maka biasanya market akan kaget dan bersikap mengamankan dana terlebih dahulu. Peningkatan inflasi yang terlalu cepat membuat setiap orang ingat bagaimana seramnya krisis ekonomi tahun 1998.

Pertumbuhan/Penurunan Spekulatif

Bisa dibilang dalam jangka pendek, kebanyakan orang didalam market tidak melihat dua alasan diatas. Kebanyakan orang lebih menikmati konsumsi berita berbau spekulasi.

Berita Tesla mau masuk Indonesia dan mobil listrik membuat orang pada membeli perusahaan apapun yang ada produk nikel. Perusahaan dengan PER 100x pun dianggap murah. Orang menghitung valuasi nilai wajar dengan potensi bisnis yang bahkan belum tentu jadi dan akhirnya tidak terjadi seindah yang diharapkan.

Berita SWF membuat apapun perusahaan BUMN yang berkaitan dengan konstruksi diborong. Orang tetap berbondong-bondong membayar perusahaan konstruksi yang bahkan rating obligasinya sudah diturunkan menjadi CCC+ sejak Oktober 2020 lalu pun tetap diborong.

Hype bank digital pun membuat saham bank apa saja yang market cap kecil menjadi incaran banyak orang.

Ini adalah contoh – contoh kasus dimana sebuah berita spekulasi bisa membuat kenaikan harga saham dengan cepat. Tetapi pada satu sisi yang lain, ketika tidak dilandasi dengan kinerja riil yang sebanding maka itu hanyalah kenaikan sementara yang biasanya akan diikuti koreksi harga tajam di kemudian hari.

Market Yang Tidak Rasional

Setelah kita memahami ketiga faktor tersebut, kita akan menyadari adanya anomali didalam market.

Ketika sebuah perusahaan mendapatkan kontrak 5.2T dalam Q1 2021 yang merupakan 67% pencapaian total penjualan emiten tersebut pada tahun 2020 hanya dalam 1 kuartal saja tetapi harga sahamnya malah diberikan kesempatan untuk membeli lebih murah lagi dengan indah belakangan ini.

Ketika sebuah perusahaan yang berorientasi eksport thermal coal ke china, dimana harga thermal coal terus meningkat yang artinya pendapatan mereka juga mau ga mau akan meningkat dengan indah di tahun ini. Tetapi harga sahamnya malah diberikan kesempatan sekali lagi untuk diberikan diskon menarik.

Kita seringkali bisa mendapatkan peluang dari ketidakrasionalan yang diberikan market. Market sering bersifat latah membeli ketika orang lain beli yang seringkali membuat mereka membeli di harga mahal. Menjual ketika orang lain jual yang seringkali membuat mereka menjual di harga murah.

Perilaku market yang seringkali seperti orang galau tanpa pendirian inilah yang memberikan peluang mendapatkan transaksi bagus didalam bursa saham.

Investor Yang Rasional

Ketika banyak orang yang mengalami ketakutan dengan penurunan harga saham di minggu ini. Ada juga investor yang bersikap rasional mengambil keputusan berdasarkan kinerja riil perusahaan.

Perusahaan – perusahaan yang secara nyata berhasil menghasilkan perbaikan kinerja didalam laporan keuangan dan berbagai data yang bisa didapatkan tetapi dihajar dengan penurunan yang menyenangkan. Membuat investor yang rasional untuk membeli saham di harga yang menarik.

Apalagi jika dari tiga faktor tersebut akan mendukung kinerja harga sahamnya dalam jangka panjang.

Sebuah perusahaan cyclicel yang harga komoditas menguat dan konsisten di harga bagus tentu saja akan membuat kinerja di tahun ini menarik. Lalu kenapa setelah harga komoditasnya naik tinggi tetapi harga saham tidak naik tinggi? Tentu karena semua menunggu fakta, apakah benar kenaikan harga komoditas akan berpengaruh terhadap laba perusahaan cyclical tersebut.

Pertanyaan yang tidak harus dijawab sebenarnya. Tetapi bayangkan jika di media tertulis saham perusahaan XYZ laba naik 100% dibanding tahun lalu. Sebuah berita yang membuat banyak peminat spekulasi untuk masuk kedalam saham yang beritanya akan hype tersebut.

Atau sebuah perusahaan yang mendapatkan kontrak luar biasa hanya di kuartal pertama tahun ini, bagaimana indahnya nanti di kuartal 1 dan 2 ketika nilai kontrak tersebut beralih menjadi saldo pendapatan dan laba perusahaan yang bagus.

Pertumbuhan riil mau tidak mau akan menimbulkan pertumbuhan spekulatif. Orang yang sebelumnya bilang industri tersebut sebagai sunset industry akan beralih menjadi layaknya profesor peraih penghargaan nobel yang menerangkan betapa hebatnya prospek industri “sunset” tersebut kedepannya.

Lalu bagaimana dengan tingkat inflasi? Rumusan yang sama akan berlaku untuk semua hal. Obat dari sebuah penyakit harga terlalu rendah adalah rendahnya harga itu sendiri. Ketika inflasi sudah terlalu rendah, maka hanya akan ada satu peluang lagi yaitu naiknya inflasi. Kecuali kita mengalami momen big depression seperti halnya jaman dekat perang dunia jaman dulu. Tentu besar harapan saya janganlah hal itu sampai terjadi.

Dari laporan keuangan Q4 2020, kita bisa melihat beberapa emiten yang memberikan pertumbuhan riil yang baik. Berbagai kebijakan pemerintah yang berusaha mendorong kita untuk lebih konsumtif tentu akan membuat inflasi naik sehat. Kedua hal ini akan mendorong terjadinya pertumbuhan spekulatif.

Ketiga faktor ini sudah jelas terlihat dan kita diberikan kesempatan untuk mendapatkan harga menarik minggu ini. Sebuah minggu yang menyenangkan bagi saya.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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