Kali ini saya akan membahas sebuah kisah turnaround company dengan studi kasus ADES. Sebuah perusahaan yang mungkin akan menjadi perusahaan yang akan populer di masa mendatang.
Turnaround company adalah sebuah kondisi dimana perusahaan berubah kondisi dari perusahaan rugi menjadi perusahaan yang menguntungkan. Walaupun ada beberapa emiten yang digadang akan menjadi sebuah turnarounds company tapi saya rasa ADES adalah contoh yang paling baik untuk dijadikan sebagai contoh studi kasus. Alasannya karena sudah jelas perusahaan ini sudah berhasil menghasilkan keuntungan.
Kisah Dibalik Kerugian ADES dan Masalah Dividen
Jika ditanya apa yang paling dibenci oleh market terkait perusahaan ADES? Kebanyakan akan menjawab karena perusahaan ini tidak pernah membagikan dividen. Perusahaan macam apa yang sudah IPO dari tahun 1994 tapi masih kesulitan untuk konsisten membagikan dividend. Begitu kurang lebih kira-kira pemikiran kebanyakan investor terhadap emiten ini.
Kalau kita lihat dari tahun 2008, emiten ini sudah mengalami suatu permasalahan yaitu saldo laba ditahan -543 Miliar rupiah dan di tahun tersebut perusahaan mengalami kerugian sebesar -32 Miliar rupiah di tahun tersebut.
Lalu kita melihat emiten ini mulai mencetak laba pada tahun 2009 dan saldo laba ditahan terus berkurang. Ada apa antara 2008 dengan 2009 ini?
Bulan Mei 2008 muncul berita ketertarikan SOFOS untuk akuisisi ADES. Link berita: https://tekno.kompas.com/read/2008/05/30/11023215/sofos.singapura.mulai.nego.beli.ades
Bulan Juni 2008 terjadi kesepakatan SOFOS membeli 91.94% saham ADES. Link berita: https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-949725/sofos-beli-9194-saham-ades
Itulah kenapa produk air mineral merek Ades bukanlah brand produk dari air mineral ADES. Produk air mineral ADES adalah air mineral dengan brand Nestle Pure Life dan mereka juga memiliki produk kosmetik dengan brand Makarizo. Kesegaran air mineral dengan produk kecantikan membuat investor menjadi betah dalam membaca annual report dari emiten ini. Tentu saja alasannya karena banyak foto wanita cantik pada annual report di emiten ini.
Lalu apa hubungannya dengan perusahaan ini pelit dalam membagikan dividen? Perusahaan hanya boleh dibagikan apabila perseroan mempunyai laba yang positif. Adapun yang dimaksud dengan laba positif adalah laba bersih yang telah menutup akumulasi kerugian perseroan dari tahun sebelumnya. Kurang lebih itulah yang tertulis dalam hukum perseroan terbatas. Bahasa mudahnya dividen hanyalah boleh dibagikan jika laba ditahan bersaldo positif.
ADES sejak tahun 2008 memiliki saldo laba ditahan negatif, tentu sebuah hal yang normal jika emiten ini tidak bisa membagikan dividend.
Mari kita bahas apakah setelah Sofos dalam mengelola emiten ini.
Seberapa Bagus ADES Setelah Diakuisisi Sofos
Setelah Sofos membeli emiten ini kita bisa melihat perusahaan mulai konsisten dalam menghasilkan laba bersih. Anda dapat melihat detailnya pada table yang saya share dibawah ini.
- Pada tahun 2008 pendapatan 130 Miliar dan pada tahun 2019 sudah meningkat menjadi 834 Miilar. Sebuah kenaikan sebesar 540% dalam 12 tahun.
- Pada tahun 2008 laba bersih -32 miliar dan pada tahun 2019 sudah meningkat menjadi 84 miliar pertahun.
- Pada tahun 2008 laba ditahan -543 miliar dan pada tahun 2019 sudah tinggal tersisa -38 miliar.
- Yang menarik dalam 3 tahun terakhir tidak terjadi peningkatan pendapatan yang signifikan. Tahun 2017 pendapatan sebesar 814 miliar, tahun 2018 turun menjadi 804 miliar (-1%) dan pada tahun 2019 naik sedikit menjadi 834 miliar (+4%). Tetapi laba bersih 2017 38 miliar berhasil meningkat menjadi 53 miliar pada tahun 2018 (+39%) dan meningkat kembali menjadi 84 miliar pada tahun 2019 (+58%). Pada titik ini, kalian bisa melihat seberapa hebat manajemen Sofos dalam melakukan cost efficiency. Pendapatan turun 1% tapi laba bisa meningkat 39% pada tahun 2018. Pendapatan naik 4% dan laba bisa meningkat 58%. Sebuah hal yang luar biasa hebat bagi saya.
Berdasarkan data diatas, maka kita bisa melihat Sofos memang berhasil mengelola perusahaan ini dengan luar biasa. Tetapi market memang baik, perusahaan dikelola dengan growth sebagus ini masih dihargai dibawah harga tahun 2012.
Apakah Growth ADES Saat Ini Masih Bagus?
- Pada tahun 2020 di Q1 dari pendapatan sebelumnya 191 miliar menjadi ada kenaikan menjadi 199 miliar. Laba bersih Q1 naik dari 17 miliar menjadi 21 miliar.
- Pada tahun 2020 di Q2 dari pendapatan sebelumnya 212 miliar mengalami penurunan menjadi 121 miliar. Tetapi hebatnya laba bersih Q2 naik dari 13 miliar menjadi 19 miliar.
- Pada tahun 2020 di Q3 dari pendapatan sebelumnya 213 miliar mengalami penurunan menjadi 166 miliar. Tetapi hebatnya laba bersih Q3 naik dari 16 miliar menjadi 34 miliar.
- Penjualan turun tapi laba meningkat menjadi hal yang luar biasa sekaligus akan membuat bingungg banyak investor, mari kita bahas ini nanti.
- Jika kita lihat secara total laba bersih 2020 sampai Q3 maka ADES sudah mencapai laba bersih 99 Miliar rupiah. Jika kita berasumsi laba bersih Q4 2020 adalah nol, maka itupun sudah cukup membawa laba ditahan ADES menjadi positif untuk pertamanya. Laba ditahan negatif yang tersisa -38 miliar rupiah jika kita jumlahkan dengan laba bersih 99 miliar sudah menjadi saldo laba ditahan positif 61 miliar rupiah. Jadi kalau Q4 berhasil menghasilkan laba bersih positif maka nanti tinggal dijumlahkan saja ya.
- Jika emiten ini menyentuh laba ditahan positif, apakah emiten ini akan pasti mulai membagikan dividen? tentu saya tidak tahu apa keputusan manajemen perusahaan. Tetapi setidaknya saat ini mereka sudah memiliki alasan untuk bisa membagikan dividen. Jika perusahaan yang terkenal tidak pernah membagikan dividen walaupun konsisten laba tiba-tiba membagikan dividen maka tentu akan menjadi hal yang bisa digunakan untuk membuat market euforia nanti.
Sihir Apa Yang Digunakan ADES?
Tentu menjadi hal yang membingungkan bagi banyak orang, pendapatan turun tapi laba meningkat. Bagaimana pula ceritanya bisa seperti itu. Jangan – jangan ini emiten yang memainkan laporan keuangan seperti emiten yang pendapatan dan laba tumbuh besar tetapi cashflow nya minus parah. Mohon jangan tanya ke saya emiten apa yang saya maksudkan. Karena selama belum jadi pemberitaan, ucapan ini bisa menjadi tuduhan tidak mendasar
Salah satu cara paling efektif untuk melihat manipulasi laporan keuangan adalah melihat cashflow operations perusahaan. Perusahaan yang mengaku mendapatkan konsisten laba tetapi cashflow operations konsisten minus maka perlu ditanyakan apakah itu benar laba atau cuma laba-laba.
Walaupun benar saya pernah mengatakan cashflow operation negatif tidak selalu berarti negatif seperti contoh pembahasan saya untuk saham PBID. Tetapi untuk bisa mengambil keputusan itu tentu perlu melakukan analisa menyeluruh.
Baca juga : Hidden Gem Series – Analisa Menyeluruh (Studi Kasus PBID)
Tetapi saya tidak bisa temukan keanehan pada CFO (Cashflow operations) ADES, mereka bertumbuh positif dengan sehat.
Tetapi apakah menjadi hal logis sebuah perusahaan yang pendapatan menurun bisa meningkatkan laba bersih perusahaan? Ini adalah sebuah pertanyaan yang perlu ditanyakan oleh investor kritis untuk tidak menyimpulkan ADES apakah akan menjadi sebuah emiten yang bisa berubah dari turnaround company menjadi emiten yang masuk dalam klasifikasi growth investing seperti SIDO dan ULTJ yang luar biasa itu.
Jadi mari kita bahas apa sebenarnya sihir yang digunakan oleh ADES untuk meningkatkan laba bersihnya ini.
- Sebenarnya COGS ADES tidak memiliki peningkatan yang signifikan, kita lihat pada 2017 COGS sebesar 46.1% dari penjualan. Naik menjadi 51.6% pada tahun 2018 dan turun sedikit menjadi 50% pada tahun 2019.
- Yang menarik adalah pada komponen beban usaha terjadi efisiensi yang luar biasa pada komponen beban penjualan dan beban administrasi.
- Pada tahun 2017, beban penjualan sebesar 35.5% dari total penjualan, turun menjadi 28.8% pada tahun 2018. Lalu bisa turun menjadi 25.1% pada tahun 2019.
- Pada tahun 2017, beban administrasi sebesar 10.1% dari total penjualan, turun menjadi 9.8% pada tahun 2018. Lalu bisa turun menjadi 9.4% pada tahun 2019.
- Jika kita lihat pada tahun 2020, beban penjualan Q1 turun menjadi 24.3%. Beban penjualan Q2 turun menjadi 12.7%. Beban penjualan Q3 turun menjadi 11.4%.
- Jika kita lihat pada tahun 2020, beban administrasi Q1 ada naik menjadi 11.5%. Beban administrasi Q2 naik menjadi 12.2%. Beban administrasi Q3 turun menjadi 7.5%.
- Jika kita lihat beban penjualan ini adalah faktor dibalik sihir ADES dalam meningkatkan profitabilitas perusahaannya dengan luar biasa ini. Inilah hal yang membuat ADES walaupun mengalami penurunan penjualan tapi dengan ajaib bisa meningkatkan laba perusahaan.
- Efisiensi apakah yang mereka lakukan untuk membuat efisiensi beban penjualan ini yang dilakukan oleh ADES?
Jurus Efisiensi Beban Penjualan ADES
- Beban penjualan Q3 yang sebelumnya 178 miliar turun menjadi tinggal 82 miliar. Sebuah angka efisiensi yang luar biasa.
- Biaya marketing turun dari 96 miliar menjadi tinggal 14 miliar.
- Biaya gaji turun dari 30 miliar menjadi tinggal 24 miliar.
- Biaya transportasi turun dari 29 miliar menjadi 18 miliar.
- Biaya lisensi turun dari 18 miliar menjadi 14 miliar.
- Saya hanya bisa bilang sebuah efisiensi yang luar biasa. Sungguh luar biasa. Jika ini adalah penampilan konser musik klasik sebuah hal yang layak diberikan standing applause agar sang master memberikan bonus pertunjukan bonus sebagai hadiah buat para penonton kembali.
Kesimpulan
Saya hanya bisa bilang ADES adalah sebuah perusahaan rugi yang bisa bangkit dan berubah menjadi sebuah turnarounds company.
Dengan berbagai data yang saya jabarkan diatas dan bagaimana hebatnya manajemen perusahaan tersebut dalam melakukan efisiensi terutama di biaya penjualan membuat saya hanya bisa bilang mereka sungguh brilian.
Saya tidak akan kaget jika beberapa tahun dari sekarang akan banyak orang yang bilang ADES akan menjadi next SIDO atau ULTJ.
Membuat saya menjadi maklum kenapa Sofos begitu pelit tidak mau membuat jumlah saham beredar menjadi lebih liquid alias jualan saham. Salah satu alasan lain yang dipermasalahkan oleh teman-teman trader bahwa emiten ini kurang likuid. Tidak salah dengan hal itu, siapa yang mau jualan barang bagus begini dengan harga murah.
Dengan PER 8.95, EV to EBIT 4.62 saya rasa emiten yang bahkan masih dihargai tidak sampai 1 triliun ini sebuah perusahaan yang juga bisa digolongkan dalam kategori saham value investing.
Awal tahun ini saya pernah memberikan webinar gratis kepada teman-teman komunitas DVI. Waktu itu saya pernah menyebut bahwa ada emiten growth investing yang juga masih masuk kedalam kriteria value investing di sektor consumer. Tampaknya kalian sudah bisa menebak emiten apa yang saya maksudkan ketika itu.
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