Salah satu hal yang membingungkan dalam investasi saham adalah bagaimana melakukan average down / average up.
Apakah ketika harga saham turun sebaiknya kita average down? Bagaimana nanti kalau ternyata harga sahamnya malah turun lebih dalam lagi?
Apakah ketika harga saham naik sebaiknya kita lakukan average up? Bagaimana nanti kalau ternyata harga sahamnya malah turun? Ketika tunggu turun, malah harga saham naik signifikan.
Walaupun investor memiliki dry powder untuk membeli saham, tetapi keputusan untuk melakukan average up / down bukanlah hal yang mudah karena tidak ada yang namanya kepastian didalam saham.
Tidak ada yang namanya besok harga saham pasti naik ataupun besok harga saham pasti turun. Yang bisa kita lakukan hanyalah meminimalisasi risiko semaksimal mungkin.
Untuk itu saya coba rangkum beberapa hal yang perlu diperhatikan dalam melakukan average up / down didalam investasi saham.
1. Tentukan Holding Period Investasi Anda
Banyak sekali orang salah kaprah tentang holdin period investasi. Banyak yang mengaku dirinya seorang investor saham berdasarkan analisa fundamental, tetapi ketika ditanya berapa lama rencana untuk hold saham yang dibeli? Jawaban yang sering muncul adalah maksimal satu tahun.
Investor yang berbasis analisa fundamental umumnya membeli saham karena dua alasan:
- Membeli saham yang salah harga (value investing).
- Membeli saham perusahaan yang pertumbuhan sales dan labanya luar biasa bagus (growth investing).
kenapa saham bisa menjadi salah harga?
Biasanya perusahaan ini pada awalnya adalah sebuah perusahaan dengan kinerja yang baik tetapi karena perusahaan mengalami penurunan kinerja ataupun memiliki masalah maka market menjadi terlalu pesimis terhadap perusahaan tersebut. Hal ini membuat harga saham perusahaan tersebut turun dalam dan akhirnya menjadi saham salah harga.
Market membutuhkan waktu untuk sadar bahwa perusahaan ini salah harga. Ini kenapa seorang value investing tidak bijak jika memiliki target holding period yang terlalu singkat. Umumnya seorang value investor memiliki holding period minimal 3-5 tahun. Itu durasi waktu yang dirasa cukup untuk market menyadari perihal salah harga tersebut.
Bagaimana perusahaan yang memiliki growth bagus dapat membuat investor tertarik untuk membeli sahamnya dengan harga lebih mahal?
Untuk membuat harga saham naik, kuncinya cuma satu yaitu mendapatkan orang yang mau membeli saham kita dengan harga diatas harga pembelian kita. Hanya hal inilah yang membuat harga saham menjadi naik. Sebuah perusahaan dengan growth yang bagus, misalkan 25% pertahun maka sungguh tidak logis jika mengharapkan harga sahamnya naik 50% didalam satu tahun. Untuk anda bisa meraih bagger (profit 100%) maka jika pertumbuhan harga sahamnya sehat anda akan membutuhkan durasi 4 tahun.
Apakah mungkin jika growth 25% harga saham naik 50%? Sangat mungkin terjadi, tapi jika ini terjadi maka segera lakukan taking profit. Karena biasanya harga saham tersebut akan jatuh karena market angkat harga saham itu melebihi kemampuannya. Itu akan menjadi kenaikan prematur yang tidak memiliki daya tahan yang cukup.
Tetapi jika anda memiliki durasi holding period dibawah 3 tahun, maka analisa fundamental mungkin bukan hal yang cocok untuk anda. Tampaknya mengambil keputusan berdasarkan analisa teknikal lebih cocok untuk anda. Hal ini akan saya bahas lebih lanjut dibawah.
2. Tentukan target profit anda dari sebelum membeli saham
Hal paling celaka dalam investasi saham adalah tidak tahu kapan anda harus exit (menjual saham anda). Mohon maaf, walaupun saya seorang value investor yang holding period termasuk dalam jangka panjang tetapi saya kurang sependapat dengan statement waktu terbaik simpan saham adalah selamanya. Kenapa? Warren Buffet saja ada saatnya akan menjual sahamnya.
Mari saya jelaskan lebih lanjut tentang ini. Kita coba bagi 3 aliran investor saham sebagai ilustrasi : value investor, growth investor dan trader.
- Value investor memiliki aturan exit ketika harga saham yang dibelinya sudah melewati harga wajar dari perusahaan tersebut. Baca juga : Menghitung nilai wajar ala Benjamin Graham
- Growth investor memiliki aturan exit ketika perusahaan tersebut pertumbuhan labanya sudah melambat. Misalkan SIDO saat ini secara konsisten bisa membuat pertumbuhan sales dan laba >15%, jika suatu saat SIDO pertumbuhan sales dan laba menjadi <10% maka saya percaya banyak growth investor akan meninggalkan saham ini. Anyway ini cuma contoh saja ya dan semoga SIDO terus bertumbuh dengan bagus secara market cap “masih” di kisaran 20 triliun rupiah.
- Trader akan melakukan taking profit ketika harga saham sudah mencapai target mereka yang biasanya tidak jauh dengan titik resistance dari analisa teknikal yang mereka lakukan.
Kenapa menentukan target profit ini penting?
Mari saya berikan anda pertanyaan kepada anda:
- Jika anda tahu bahwa target profit anda di kisaran 100% – 1000% apakah perbedaan harga 5% menjadi problem yang perlu anda pikirkan? (pertanyaan untuk value investor)
- Jika anda tahu bahwa target profit anda di kisaran 1000% dan dividen anda kelak akan senilai 20%-30% pertahun dari nilai investasi saham anda saat ini apakah perbedaan harga 5%-20% menjadi problem besar yang perlu anda pikirkan? (pertanyaan untuk growth investor)
- Jika anda tahu bahwa target profit anda di kisaran 10% apakah perbedaan harga 5% menjadi problem besar yang perlu anda pikirkan? TENTU SAJA. (ini pertanyaan untuk para trader).
Percaya saya tidak ada satu teknik / tools di dunia ini yang bisa menebak 100% harga terendah suatu saham. Tentukan target profit anda, maka anda akan memiliki pemikiran lebih jernih apakah anda boleh melakukan average down / average up didalam investasi saham anda.
3. Bagi investasi saham anda menjadi beberapa timing pembelian
Seperti yang sudah saya bahas diatas bahwa tidak ada satu teknik / tools di dunia ini yang bisa menebak 100% harga terendah suatu saham. Bahkan mungkin statement yang lebih tepat adalah bisa jadi anda tidak punya cukup kesabaran / kepercayaan diri untuk menunggu harga saham jatuh ke titik terendah.
Saya bisa jadi memiliki analisa tersendiri pada tanggal 2 Juni 2020 bahwa MPMX akan mengalami penurunan hingga harga di kisaran 345 – 475. Anda dapat membaca analisanya di tulisan saya di stockbit pada link https://stockbit.com/#/post/3941335.
Tetapi pada akhirnya saya membeli MPMX cukup banyak di kisaran 460-480, saya tidak memiliki kepercayaan diri yang cukup untuk menunggu MPMX hingga dibawah 400 walaupun tulisan itu adalah analisa yang saya buat sendiri.
Kenapa Perlu Membagi Beberapa Timing Entry Dalam Investasi Saham?
Ini adalah sebuah contoh, walaupun anda bisa memiliki analisa sehebat apapun tetapi psikologi anda tetap akan dipengaruhi oleh pergerakan harga di market. Hal ini yang membuat kita perlu membagi timing masuk investasi saham kita menjadi beberapa entry baik anda seorang investor ataupu trader.
Percaya saya hal yang lebih menyakitkan dibandingkan taking profit kecepatan adalah tidak berhasil ikutan beli ketika harga murah. Beruntungnya karena saya sudah menunggu fase downtrend IHSG dari bulan Agustus maka saya masih bisa mengikuti fase diskon IHSG saat ini.
Baca juga : Mari bahas mitos sell in may and go away
Bagaimana cara membagi dana untuk masuk kedalam beberapa entry didalam investasi saham untuk para investor maka anda dapat membaca tulisan saya untuk teknik 1-2-3-5 yang ada di tulisan saya yang lain.
Baca juga : 5 Langkah Value Investing Part 3 (Risk Management and Monitoring)
4. Apakah anda memiliki keyakinan harga saham anda akan naik?
Sebuah pertanyaan sederhana tapi sulit untuk dijawab. Tapi mari saya coba jelaskan dari dua perspektif yaitu untuk invetor dengan analisa fundamental dan trader dengan analisa teknikal.
Bagaimana memiliki keyakinan harga saham akan naik dari analisa fundamental?
Jika anda membeli saham perusahaan A, setelah itu ternyata harga sahamnya terus turun. Tetapi perusahaan tersebut mengalami peningkatan baik sales dan laba secara bagus. Apakah anda tidak merasa aneh? Jika anda tahu ada perusahaan yang harga sahamnya terus turun tetapi kinerja keuangannya membaik apakah anda tidak yakin harga sahamnya akan naik dan ini adalah hal worthed jika anda mau average up?
Ini contoh yang terjadi pada saham IGAR, INCI, TDPM pada Q1 tahun ini. Ketiga perusahaan itu mengalami kenaikan kinerja yang terbilang bagus di Q1 tetapi market menghukum ketiga perusahaan ini dengan dari awal tahun. Sehingga wajar ketika Q2 ketiga saham ini mengalami kenaikan begitu bagus.
Jika anda memliki pemahaman seperti itu maka anda tidak akan takut untuk melakukan average up untuk saham yang anda beli dengan menggunakan analisa fundamental.
Bagaimana memiliki keyakinan harga saham akan naik dari analisa Teknikal?
Mari kita kembali ke konsep dasar analisa teknikal. Ada yang namanya titik support dan resistance. Jika harga saham menembus titik resistance dan melanjutkan kenaikan maka ini disebut dengan breakout resistance. Ketika sebuah saham melakukan breakout resistance didukung dengan volume yang kuat maka kemungkinan besar penguatan akan berlanjut.
Mari saya coba jelaskan dengan bahasa awam. Jika anda berinvestasi emas batangan anggaplah dalam 2 bulan terakhir harga bergerak naik turun di kisaran 800 ribu – 850 ribu per gram. Maka kita akan anggap 800 ribu adalah titik support dan 850 ribu adalah titik resistance. Tiba – tiba harga emas naik hingga diatas 850 ribu menjadi 860 ribu, tetapi bukannya orang pada nafsu menjual emas tersebut malahan lebih banyak orang mau melakukan pembelian emas sehingga volume transaksi meningkat dengan signifikan. Inilah yang saya maksud dengan breakout resistance yang didukung dengan dukungan volume yang kuat.
Bagaimana Menentukan Support dan Resistance di Analisa Teknikal?
Pertanyaan yang paling sering muncul berikutnya adalah, bagaimana cara menentukan support dan resistance yang paling akurat? Seperti yang sudah saya bilang, tidak ada teknik atau tools yang pasti akurat. Tetapi mari kita gunakan logika kita, setiap analis teknikal butuh untuk menentukan support dan resistance untuk sistem trading mereka. Maka pilihlah metode penentuan support dan resistance yang paling populer digunakan oleh mereka.
Mari kita lihat pengajar analisa teknikal:
- Astronacci -> menggabungkan ilmu astrologi dengan fibonacci
- Trading with Michael Yeoh –> Menggunakan fibonacci, silahkan yang belum lihat video pertama youtube dia dapat nonton di youtube. Saya rasa penjelasan fibonacci dia sangat baik, sehingga saya rasa lebih baik kalian nonton langsung aja dibanding saya yang jelaskan. Karena dia jauh lebih kompeten dari saya untuk menjelaskan hal tersebut.
Saya lupa beberapa trader terkenal di masa saya masih menjadi trader, dulu ada cici yang terkenal dengan analisa fibonacci di telegram beberapa tahun lalu dan banyak sekali trader senior yang menggunakan fibonacci untuk penentuan support dan teknikal. Jadi tampaknya Fibonacci masih menjadi teknik populer yang digunakan oleh para analis teknikal saat ini.
Studi Kasus Analisa Teknikal BBKP
Mari kita lihat studi kasus BBKP, saham yang lagi begitu populer saat ini.
Jika melihat chart BBKP yang saya lampirkan saat itu BBKP berhasil breakout resistance fibonacci di harga 214 dan kalau kita lihat indicator volume BBKP begitu luar biasa. Tidak heran BBKP dapat naik hingga ke titik resistance fibonacci 38.20 di kisaran 287.
Apakah BBKP akan naik / turun selanjutnya maka silahkan tanyakan ke pakar analisa teknikal karena niche tulisan saya bukan di bidang analisa teknikal.
Kesimpulan
Tugas paling utama anda dalam berinvestasi saham adalah tentukan jati diri anda. Apakah anda mau menjadi value investor, growth investor atau trader. Jangan sampai anda menjadi trader berdasarkan analisa fundamental ataupu menjadi investor berlandaskan analisa teknikal. Itu sama halnya anda menambahkan kecap di soft drink anda ataupun es batu di kuah bakso anda.
Yang salah bukan kecap ataupun es batunya tetapi anda yang salah dalam melakukan mix match item tersebut. Begitu juga jika anda mau menjadi value investor, growth investor atau trader.
Apakah boleh investor mengerti analisa teknikal? Tentu boleh, bahkan jika anda bisa menggabungkan kedua hal tersebut akan menjadi sangat menarik.Memilih saham yang bagus dengan teknik analisa fundamental dan membeli di momen yang tepat dengan bantuan analisa teknikal.
Yang menjadi salah adalah investor membeli berdasarkan analisa teknikal dan menggunakan data laporan keuangan untuk membantu justifikasi harga sahamnya akan naik suatu saat kelak.
Setelah anda sudah bisa menentukan jati diri anda mau memilih apakah anda mau menjadi value investor, growth investor ataupun trader maka anda bisa mengikuti 4 hal yang sudah dijelaskan untuk membantu anda dalam mengambil keputusan apakah anda perlu melakukan average down / average up dalam investasi saham anda.
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