Pada tulisan kali ini saya mau membahas tentang seasonality pada saham cyclical sekaligus mengucapkan perpisahan pada TBLA.
Seperti yang mungkin kalian tahu, TBLA adalah salah satu koleksi saham value investing saya. Bahkan beberapa tulisan saya tentang tutorial value investing menggunakan TBLA sebagai salah satu contoh kasusnya.
Baca juga : Tutorial Value Investing
Kenapa saya menjadikan TBLA sebagai contoh tentu karena saham ini lebih menantang untuk dijelaskan kenapa menarik. Karena seperti yang banyak orang tahu, angka hutang TBLA tergolong besar. Saya waktu itu mencoba membuat pembahasan TBLA dibandingkan saham koleksi saya yang lain yang lebih aman, karena ingin membuat pembelajaran lebih menarik dibandingkan yang lurus-lurus saja.
Saya ada menulis di Instagram tentang Trailing Stop, disitu saya ada mengatakan bahwa saya sedang menjalankan Trailing Stop untuk salah satu saham saya. Akhirnya Trailing Stop terkena dan saya memutuskan untuk out dari saham tersebut. Saham saya yang terkena trailing stop adalah TBLA.
Baca Juga : Postingan Instagram – Trailing Stop
Perpisahan ini membuat saya sedikit nostalgia. Saya mencoba membuka jurnal saham saya dan menemukan bahwa saya membeli TBLA pertama kali pada 1 July 2019 di harga 850 dan terus tekun melakukan average down hingga kemarin sempat dibawah 500. TBLA tidak terlalu banyak mendapatkan porsi average down saya karena perlu membagi dana ke banyak saham di tahun lalu dengan keterbatasan dana yang dimiliki. Alkisah average price akhir saya di sekitar 750an kalau saya tidak salah ingat.
Baca Juga : Belajar Membuat Jurnal Saham
Apa alasan saya akhirnya memutuskan untuk menjalankan trailing stop pada TBLA walaupun saya belum bagger yang biasanya merupakan target minimum untuk taking profit untuk saham value investing saya?
Melihat Seasonality Perusahaan CPO
Terima kasih untuk stockbit yang memiliki fitur seasonality sehingga menghemat banyak waktu saya untuk melakukan pengecekan data. Mari kita lihat beberapa data menarik dari seasonality saham emiten CPO selama 10 tahun terakhir.
TBLA – Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk.

- Selama 10 tahun terakhir, TBLA hanya memiliki potensi kenaikan pada bulan Februari sebesar 22%. Dimana hanya tahun 2013 dan 2017 TBLA berhasil naik pada bulan Februari. Sisanya selalu berakhir merah dengan average -4.6% pada bulan tersebut.
- Untuk bulan selanjutnya (maret, april) sebenarnya TBLA masih ada potensi lebih kuat untuk rebound kecil.
AALI – Astra Agro Lestari Tbk.

- Selama 10 tahun terakhir, AALI hanya memiliki potensi kenaikan sebesar 20% pada bulan Januari, 44% pada bulan Februari dan Maret serta 22% pada bulan April.
LSIP – PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk.

- Selama 10 tahun terakhir, LSIP hanya memiliki potensi kenaikan sebesar 30% pada bulan januari, 56% pada bulan Februari, 33% pada bulan Maret dan April.
CEKA – Wilmar Cahaya Indonesia Tbk.

- CEKA merupakan salah satu emiten yang menarik perhatian saya sejak terjaring screener saya di tahun lalu. Emiten ini kental kaitannya dengan sawit.
- Sedikit berbeda dengan 3 emiten sebelumnya, justru CEKA dari bulan februari hingga april malah cendrung menunjukkan sinyal menguat terutama di bulan maret yang begitu menonjol hingga potensi harga naik sebesar 78% dengan average peningkatan 19%. Sesuatu angka yang sungguh luar biasa.
Baca juga : Bedah Laporan Keuangan Sektor Agri
AADC – Ada Apa Dengan CPO?
Tadi hampir saja subjudul ini saya tulis dengan Ada Apa dengan Cawit untuk sekedar membuat jokes. Untung saja sawit istilah umumnya CPO sehingga saya tidak perlu membuat candaan garing seperti ide awal.

- Selama 10 tahun terakhir, rata-rata resistance harga CPO berada di titik 3.465, Harga CPO saat ini berada di 3.425 setelah sebelumnya sempat menembus titik 3.800.
- Hal yang unik adalah titik tertinggi CPO tersebut terjadi di awal tahun 2020, lebih tepatnya 5 Januari 2021.
- Biar tidak terlalu panjang, mari saya bahas apa yang terjadi dari tahun 2008 – 2020 terkait harga CPO di awal tahun.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2008 terjadi pada bulan Februari. Sekitar 4.150, setelah itu turun hingga ke titik harga 1.500 pada bulan Oktober 2008.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2009 pada bulan May. Sekitar 2.670, setelah itu turun hingga ke titik 2090 pada October.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2010 pada bulan Januari. Sekitar 2.690, setelah itu turun ke titik 2.360 pada bulan July.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2011 pada bulan Maret 2011. Sekitar 3.900, setelah itu turun ke titik 2.800 pada bulan Oktober.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2012 pada bulan April, sekitar 3.500. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.350 pada bulan Desember.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2013 pada bulan Februari, sekitar 2.560. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.200 pada bulan Agustus.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2014 pada bulan Maret, sekitar 2.800. Setelah itu turun ke titik 1.950 pada bulan November.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2015 pada bulan Maret, sekitar 2.320. Setelah itu turun ke titik 1.985 pada bulan September.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2016 pada bulan April, sekitar 2.750. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.300 pada bulan July.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2017 pada bulan Januari, sekitar 3.120. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.465 pada bulan July.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2018 pada bulan Februari, sektiar 2.540. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.000 pada bulan November.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2019 pada bulan Januari, sekitar 3.000. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.060 pada bulan September.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2020 pada bulan bulan Januari, sekitar 3.100. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.050 pada bulan Juni.
Bagaimana Relevansi TBLA dengan Pergerakan Harga CPO
Mengacu pada data diatas, setelah awal tahun trend harga CPO akan terus menurun hingga pertengahan tahun, hal ini akan relevan dengan kinerja pergerakan saham CPO yang tentu berkorelasi terhadap harga komoditasnya.
Lalu mari kita lihat kembali table seasonality TBLA yang sudah dishare diatas.

- Harga tertinggi CPO 2012 pada bulan April. TBLA pada bulan Mei mengalami penurunan -13%.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2013 pada bulan Februari. TBLA pada bulan Maret mengalami penurunan -3.03%.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2014 pada bulan Maret. TBLA luar biasa rally mengalami kenaikan hingga July.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2015 pada bulan Maret. TBLA pada bulan April mengalami penurunan -14.73%
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2016 pada bulan April. TBLA pada bulan Mei mengalami penurunan -3.39%
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2017 pada bulan Januari. TBLA mengalami rally kenaikan hingga bulan Mei.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2018 pada bulan Februari. TBLA mengalami kenaikan terlebih dahulu pada bulan Maret sebelum rally penurunan tajam hingga bulan Juni.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2019 pada bulan Januari. TBLA pada bulan Februari mengalami penurunan -13.99%
- Mari abaikan 2020, karena penurunan lebih mengarah pada pandemi yang terjadi diseluruh dunia dibandingkan pergerakan harga CPO.
- Mengacu pada data diatas, maka selain tahun 2014, tidak ada potensi yang menarik terjadi untuk emiten ini ketika harga CPO sudah mencapai puncaknya.
Tahun 2008, 2011, 2012 dan 2021
Harga CPO tahun 2021 ini yang menembus 3.800 ada kemiripan dengan harga CPO pada tahun 2008, 2011, dan 2012.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2008 terjadi pada bulan Februari. Sekitar 4.150, setelah itu turun hingga ke titik harga 1.500 pada bulan Oktober 2008.
- Harga TBLA pada Februari 2008 sempat berada di 595 sebelum akhirnya jatuh ke 365 pada bulan April di tahun yang sama.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2011 pada bulan Maret 2011. Sekitar 3.900, setelah itu turun ke titik 2.800 pada bulan Oktober.
- Harga TBLA pada Maret 2011 berada di 425 tapi dashyatnya harga sahamnya malah melonjak hingga terus naik ke 755
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2012 pada bulan April, sekitar 3.500. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.350 pada bulan Desember.
- Harga TBLA pada April 2012 berada di 625. Setelah itu turun hingga dibawah 500 hingga akhir tahun.
- Jadi walaupun penurunan CPO bisa saja tidak membuat TBLA turun malah mungkin bisa naik tinggi hingga 2011 tetapi menurut logika saya perusahaan cyclical tetaplah memiliki korelasi langsung dengan harga komoditasnya.
Consumer CPO Beralih Ke Consumer CPO Lain.
Hari senin dan selasa kemarin adalah hari dimana saya melakukan penjualan saham TBLA yang saya miliki. Kali ini saya gagal meraih bagger dari saham value investing saya. Average 750 hanya berhasil terjual di average 1.020 pada akhirnya. Kurang lebih sekitar profit 36% (belum termasuk dividen) dari sekitar 1.5 tahun holding period saya.
Bukan sesuatu yang membanggakan, dimana keuntungan yang kecil dibandingkan keuntungan investor lain yang mudah sekali meraih multibagger di tahun 2020 lain. Tapi bukan performance yang terlalu jelek juga untuk sebuah saham yang dibeli sebelum COVID-19.
Saya menyisakan 30% dari profit TBLA ini sebagai free stock saya. Free stock sendiri adalah sebuah idea yang diperkenalkan kepada saya oleh seorang investor senior. Idenya untuk memiliki “saham gratisan” yang terus rajin memberikan dividen kepada saya dengan bukan dari modal yang saya keluarkan bukanlah ide yang buruk untuk saya terima. Jadi betul saya masih memiliki jumlah lot yang tidak banyak dari saham TBLA saya. Tapi saat ini sudah sangat kecil porsinya.
Baca juga : Postingan Instagram – Free Stock
Lalu pertanyaan yang membosankan yang selalu ditanyakan kepada saya pastinya lalu pindahin uang ke saham mana? Jadi daripada banyak private message yang masuk menanyakan hal tersebut. Sekalian saja saya jawab disini.
Saya memindahkan modal dan profit saya dari TBLA ke beberapa saham, tapi porsi paling besar adalah ke saham consumer sawit lainnya. Apakah anda dah bisa nebak saham apa yang saya maksud?
Saham yang pernah saya puji didalam tulisan analisa laporan keuangan sektor agri. Saya memuji CEKA sebuah perusahaan yang bagus didalam analisa laporan keuangan tersebut. Saya tidak akan jelaskan kenapa saya sebut CEKA bagus. Karena sudah saya bahas panjang lebar didalam bedah laporan keuangan sektor agri yang pernah saya buat sebelumnya. Silahkan cari dan baca di artikel tersebut, jika anda penasaran.
Baca juga : Bedah Laporan keuangan Sektor Agri
Tetapi bukankah TBLA dan CEKA sama – sama perusahaan di sektor consumer dan berkaitan erat dengan harga CPO?
Bukankah kalau prediksi TBLA akan jatuh karena CPO akan jatuh, maka CEKA juga akan bernasib sama logikanya?
Mari saya bahas lebih lanjut tentang ini.
TBLA – CEKA, Serupa Tapi Tak Sama
Betul sekali kedua emiten ini sama-sama berada di sektor consumer. Betul sekali kedua emiten ini produknya berkaitan erat dengan CPO. Sebelum saya bahas kesana, mari kita lihat fakta menarik berikut ini.
Masih ingat pada bagian awal, saya memperlihatkan seasonality CEKA, ketika saham yang berkaitan erat dengan CPO turun di awal tahun. CEKA justru malah bergerak naik.

- CEKA dari bulan februari hingga april malah cendrung menunjukkan sinyal menguat terutama di bulan maret yang begitu menonjol hingga potensi harga naik sebesar 78% dengan average peningkatan 19%. Sesuatu angka yang sungguh luar biasa.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2008 terjadi pada bulan Februari. Sekitar 4.150, setelah itu turun hingga ke titik harga 1.500 pada bulan Oktober 2008.
- Harga CEKA pada Februari 2008 sempat berada di 365 sebelum akhirnya naik ke 940 pada Juni 2008.
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2011 pada bulan Maret 2011. Sekitar 3.900, setelah itu turun ke titik 2.800 pada bulan Oktober.
- Harga CEKA pada Maret 2011 berada di 420, setelah itu naik ke 565 Juni 2011. (ini mengesampingkan kenaikan sesaat CEKA ke harga 695 pada mei 2011).
- Harga tertinggi CPO 2012 pada bulan April, sekitar 3.500. Setelah itu turun ke titik 2.350 pada bulan Desember.
- Harga CEKA pada April 2012 berada di 1010. Setelah itu naik ke 1.575 di bulan yang sama.
- Ketika harga CPO mengalami penurunan justru malah menjadi sentimen positif untuk CEKA.
- Sebenarnya yang membedakan adalah TBLA, walaupun perusahaan consumer mereka masih seperti perusahaan sektor AGRI lainnya, dimana lahan perkebunan yang dikelola masih masuk kedalam laporan keuangan TBLA.
- Sedangkan untuk CEKA, ini pure perusahaan manufaktur. Anda tidak akan menemukan asset tetap tanaman produktif dan semacamnya di bagian aset tetap CEKA. CPO merupakan bahan baku produksi mereka. Penurunan CPO akan meningkatkan margin mereka.
Kesimpulan
Saya pribadi menyukai TBLA. Jika memang diberikan kesempatan oleh market, tentu saya akan tertarik menambah koleksi di emiten ini yang tinggal tersisa free stock saja bagi saya.
Tetapi ini sebuah keputusan yang harus saya ambil, dimana muncul beberapa emiten baru yang ditemukan untuk dikoleksi sedangkan saldo uang kas sudah menipis. Sehingga saya perlu melakukan re-alokasi untuk saham yang sudah saya koleksi.
Setelah menimbang-nimbang saham bagus mana yang harus saya jadikan tumbal. Maka dengan berat hati terpilihlah emiten TBLA ini sesuai dengan penjelasan panjang lebar yang sudah saya jabarkan di tulisan ini.
Jadi dengan tulisan ini saya ucapkan salam perpisahan untuk saham TBLA saya. Terima kasih sudah menemani portofolio saya selama 1.5 tahun ini, memberikan tambahan uang dari dividend dan juga capital gain yang cukup baik. Semoga suatu saat di momen yang tepat saya bisa membeli emiten ini lagi.
CEKA welcome to the club. Semoga kita bisa cocok dan betah didalam portofolio saham saya.
By the way silahkan baca tulisan ini dengan bijaksana. Karena ini berarti saya sudah lepas TBLA saya (kecuali yang tersisa sebagai free stock saya) dan juga CEKA sudah berada didalam portofolio saham saya.
Tidak ada manusia yang tidak bisa salah, jadi bisa jadi analisa saya ini juga bisa salah. Tapi analisa ini saya buat dengan sejujur – jujurnya. Walau begitu tetap disclaimer on ya. Tetap lakukan riset kalian sendiri sebelum menekan tombol buy dan sell kalian.
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