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Analisa Efek Debt Equity Ratio Terhadap Harga Saham

DEBT EQUITY

Apa itu DER (Debt to Equity Ratio)?

DER (Debt to Equity Ratio) adalah sebuah ratio yang membandingkan total hutang dengan total ekuitas.

Ekuitas sendiri bisa dibilang adalah total asset bersih yang dimiliki oleh pemilik modal. Dimana dalam persamaan akuntansi:

  • Harta = Hutang + Modal
  • Modal = Harta – Hutang

Ketika sebuah perusahaan meraih keuntungan, maka keuntungan perusahaan akan menambah ekuitas perusahaan. Dan sebaliknya jika perusahaan mengalami kerugian maka keuntungan perusahaan akan mengurangi ekuitas perusahaan.

Dengan melihat DER (Debt to Equity Ratio), maka kita bisa melihat apakah perusahaan memiliki hutang yang terlalu besar atau tidak. 

Umumnya ada 2 alasan umum kenapa perusahaan perlu berhutang?

  • Membutuhkan uang untuk melakukan ekspansi bisnis. Ekspansi bisnis seperti menambah kapasitas produksi, menambah cabang / outlet baru tentu membutuhkan tambahan modal yang besar. Ini membuat perusahaan butuh menerbitkan obligasi untuk menambah modal usaha.
  • Memiliki kinerja usaha yang kurang baik, sehingga membutuhkan hutang untuk membiayai operasional usahanya.

Jika sebuah perusahaan berhutang karena memiliki kinerja usaha yang kurang baik dan ditambah lagi memiliki hutang yang besar. Maka ini menjadi sinyal berbahaya untuk kita sebagai investor perusahaan tersebut.

Bisa jadi kita hanya membeli perusahaan yang lebih berusaha bertahan hidup dibandingkan menghasilkan profit untuk kita sebagai investor.

Cara Menggunakan DER (Debt to Equity Ratio)

Rumus DER (Debt to Equity Ratio) = Total Liabilities / Total Equity

Sebuah perusahaan yang baik memiliki DER (Debt to Equity Ratio) yang kecil. Biasa parameter yang digunakan adalah DER dibawah 1. 

Jika DER diatas 1, maka sebenarnya perusahaan ini memiliki jumlah hutang yang sudah lebih besar dari kemampuan ekuitasnya. Jadi jika bisnisnya tidak bisa menghasilkan keuntungan lagi di kedepannya, maka perusahaan tidak bisa membayar hutang ini di masa depan.

Beberapa Perusahaan Boleh Memiliki DER Tinggi

Tapi kita tidak bisa menggunakan patokan DER <1 untuk beberapa sektor perusahaan. Sebagai contoh, perusahaan di sektor finance (bank), property, dan infrastructure pasti memiliki DER tinggi. Dan itu bukan hal yang jelek untuk perusahaan di sektor ini.

Tidak mungkin perusahaan sektor bank tidak memiliki setoran uang tabungan / deposito nasabah. Itu sumber uang cash mereka untuk disalurkan sebagai kredit kepada debiturnya. Tabungan / deposito nasabah merupakan hutang bagi bank tersebut. Sehingga menjadi wajar bagi suatu bank memilki hutang yang tinggi.

Projek untuk sektor property dan infrastructure membutuhkan biaya dan waktu pengembangan yang banyak dan panjang. Sehingga sesuatu yang wajar bagi perusahaan di sektor property dan infrastructure memiliki jumlah hutang yang besar.

Tapi tetap saja, jika umumnya di sektor perbankan memiliki DER 4 – 5X dan anda menemukan bank dengan DER 10X itu sesuatu yang tidak wajar dan tidak baik. Jadi selalu lihat ke benchmark industri tersebut.

Jika bingung darimana bisa mendapatkan data benchmark industri, maka ambil 3 perusahaan paling top dari sektor itu dan lihat berapa angka DER dari masing – masing perbankan. Totalkan dan bagi 3, itulah patokan DER yang bisa anda gunakan. Jika tidak terlalu jauh dari itu berarti masih bisa diterima. Tapi jika terlalu jauh, sebaiknya berhati – hati terhadap perusahaan yang lagi anda lirik itu.

Bagaimana Melihat Bank Memiliki Likuiditas yang Baik atau Tidak?

Sektor finance (bank) memiliki karakteristik unik dalam melihat apakah perusahaan ini memiliki likuiditas yang baik atau tidak.

Umumnya ada 3 ratio penting yang dilihat dari sektor finance (bank):

Net Interest Margin

Net interest margin adalah selisih antara bunga yang dibayarkan kepada nasabahnya dan total bunga yang didabatkan dari debiturnya.

Semakin besar net interest margin sebuah bank maka semakin baik.

Misalkan saya menabung di bank dan mendapatkan bunga deposito 5%. Lalu anda mengambil kredit di bank dengan bunga 11%. Maka net interest margin bank tersebut adalah 6%.

Net interest margin sebuah bank sangat penting, terutama di saat ini. Dimana suku bunga bank terus dipotong. Sehingga besar kecilnya net interest margin suatu bank dapat digunakan untuk melihat efektifitas bank dalam mengelola asetnya dalam meraih profit.

CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio)

Rumus CAR : Total Equity / Total ATMR (Asset Tertimbang Menurut Resiko) x 100%

Bank Indonesia mewajibkan bank harus memiliki CAR diatas 8%.

CAR di Indonesia lebih dikenal dengan ratio kecukupan modal. Ini berguna untuk mengecek kemampuan bank dalam menyediakan dana yang digunakan sebagai cadangan untuk mengatasi resiko terjadinya kerugian.

ATMR (Asset Tertimbang Menurut Resiko) adalah asset yang memiliki bobot resiko. Ketika kita menyetorkan uang di bank sebagai tabungan / deposito, maka posisi kas bank bertambah. Kas adalah aset dari bank tersebut. Tapi di satu sisi kas ini bukan milik bank, tapi milik nasabah yang bisa diambil kapan saja. Dan juga bank berkewajiban untuk membayar bunga ke nasabanya. Sehingga kas yang didapatkan adalah asset yang memiliki tingkat resiko. Ini yang disebut dengan ATMR.

Sehingga CAR yang tinggi merupakan hal yang semakin baik, ini berarti ekuitas bank itu cukup besar untuk dijadikan cadangan aset yang berisiko tersebut.

NPL (Non Performing Loan)

NPL adalah besaran kredit gagal bayar yang diberikan oleh bank kepada krediturnya. 

Dalam penyaluran kredit, selalu ada resiko gagal bayar oleh nasabahnya. Dan itu bukan merupakan hal baik bagi bank tersebut.

Bank Indonesia memberikan syarat bahwa bank harus memilikii NPL dibawah 5%.

Dimana Mendapatkan Data Net Interest Margin, CAR dan NPL?

Anda bisa saja menghitung sendiri, tapi dibutuhkan kemampuan yang tinggi untuk mengolah data untuk menghitung ratio ini.

Saran saya, lihat saja annual report dari bank tersebut. Dalam annual report perusahaan sektor bank harusnya ada informasi tiga ratio ini.

Anual Report BBCA 2019 - Ratio Bank
Anual Report BBCA 2019 – Ratio Bank

Belajar Dari Sejarah, Efek DER (Debt to Equity Ratio) terhadap Pergerakan Harga Saham

Jika mau belajar dari sejarah hutang ada baiknya kita belajar dari sejarah salah satu saham paling terkenal di IHSG, yaitu BUMI.

BUMI pernah mencapai puncak harga di bulan juni 2008. Ketika itu BUMI menyentuh harga tertinggi 8.750. Dan pada Juli 2015, BUMI untuk pertama kalinya menyentuh harga 50.

Seperti yang kita tahu, tahun 2008 menjadi masa emas bagi industri batu bara. Dimana harga batu bara mencapai puncak tertingginya.

Baca juga: Gold Coal Ratio – Alat Ukur Mahal Murah Harga Batu Bara

Tapi di tahun 2016 adalah masa suram untuk batu bara nya dimana Gold Coal Ratio yang demikian besar diatas 20X.

Ini menjadi alasan kenapa harga perusahaan batu bara terjun bebas ketika mendekati tahun 2016.

Tapi tetap ada pelajaran menarik lainnya yang bisa kita petik terkait ratio hutang. Jadi mari kita lihat perbandingan antara BUMI dan ITMG untuk mempelajari efek ratio hutang terhadap pergerakan harga saham.

Perbandingan Ratio Hutang, Harga Saham ITMG dan BUMI

Mari kita perbandingkan antara BUMI dan ITMG yang bergerak sama – sama di sektor coal mining.

BUMI
Harga tertinggi Juni 2008 : 8.750
Harga terendahJuli 2015 : 50
Penurunan 99%

ITMG
Harga tertinggi Juni 2008 : 36.500
Harga terendah Juli 2015 : 9.525
Penurunan 74%

Yang menjadi perbedaan besar adalah:
BUMI membagikan dividen terakhir pada 2008 dengan nominal 50,6 per lembar (link http://bit.ly/2MBPrST ).

Sedangkan ITMG masih bisa menikmati dividen dari 2008 hingga tahun ini link              (link http://bit.ly/34XXfoo ).

Apa yang menjadi permasalahan kenapa ITMG bisa membagi dividen sedangkan BUMI tidak bisa membagi dividen? Tentu jawabannya adalah untuk membagi dividen maka perusahaan harus memiliki profit. Selain itu perusahaan juga harus memiliki uang kas yang cukup untuk dibagikan sebagai dividen.

Mari kita melihat kecukupan kas dua perusahaan tambang ini dan perbandingannya dengan besar DER perusahaan.

Free cash flow per share (annual) BUMI
2008 : 43,91 (DER 1,2)
2009 : -191,73 (DER 2,59)
2010 : -109,76 (DER 3,19)
2011 : -40,53 (DER 5,6)
2012 : -45,41 (DER 35,28)
2013 : -39,19 (DER -11,05, artinya Ekuitas dah minus)
2014 : 4,47 (DER -6,01)
2015 : -12,26 (DER -1,8)
2016 : -19,47 (DER -1,96)
2017 : -26,69 (DER -4,6)
2018 : -24,43 (DER -10,51)

Free cash flow per share (annual) ITMG
2008 : 1280 (DER 0,6)
2009 : 2605 (DER 0,52)
2010 : 1406 (DER 0,51)
2011 : 4192 (DER 0,46)
2012 : 2989 (DER 0,48)
2013 : 1098 (DER 0,44)
2014 : 1444 (DER 0,45)
2015 : 1911 (DER 0,41)
2016 : 1448 (DER 0,33)
2017 : 3031 (DER 0,41)
2018 : 3287 (DER 0,48)

Dengan melihat peningkatan DER di 2017 dan 2018 sejujurnya saya pribadi tidak yakin bahwa target BUMI akan membagi dividen di 2023 dapat terwujud.

DER yang tinggi artinya hutang yang tinggi, kecuali kita meminjam uang dari orang tua kita, maka hutang berarti kita harus membayar BEBAN BUNGA.

Sehingga DER yang tinggi akan merusak arus kas seperti ilustrasi yang dijelaskan diatas.

Kesimpulan

Walaupun ITMG dan BUMI sama – sama mengalami naik turunnya harga saham mengikuti naik turunnya harga komoditas batu bara. Tetapi ada perbedaan nasib signifikan dalam segi dividen.

Dimana sebagai investor ITMG kalian bisa menikmati nikmatnya dividen yield yang rata – rata 10% per tahun. Sedangkan di BUMI anda tidak bisa menikmati dividen tersebut bahkan harus dikecewakan beberapa kali dengan melihat harga sahamnya kembali ke titik 50.

Sebagai seorang investor kita diberikan kebebasan untuk memilih. Apakah kita mau memilih perusahaan yang memiliki ratio hutang bagus atau kurang bagus. Selalu pilihlah perusahaan yang memiliki ratio hutang yang baik.

Bahkan saking pentingnya ratio hutang ini, saya masukkan sebagai kriteria wajib dalam melakukan screening saham.

Baca juga : Screening Saham ala Value Investor.

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What do you think?

Written by Thowilz

Saya adalah seorang value investor yang memiliki passion untuk mengajarkan teknik value investing kepada investor lainnya. Anda dapat membaca tulisan saya di stockbit (@thowilz), instagram, dan social media investorsaham.id lainnya.

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